Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KAREN-19 in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela from 22 Sep 2019 09:00 UTC to 27 Sep 2019 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAREN-19

in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KAREN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (27 Sep 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (British Virgin Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.2 m	65 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	79 km/h	0.6 m	123 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	25 Sep 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	25 Sep 2019 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	26 Sep 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	26 Sep 2019 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	26 Sep 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	26 Sep 2019 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	27 Sep 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	27 Sep 2019 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Colombia, Guyana, Brazil	1,908,137	+
	Dominican Republic	45,865
	Venezuela	10,774
	Colombia	1,845,789
	Guyana	4,149
	Brazil	1,560

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	120	-		-	-	-	-	-	Trinidad and Tobago
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	186	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	160	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	64	-		-	-	-	-	-	Puerto Rico
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	25 Sep 2019 12:00	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	25 Sep 2019 18:00	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	26 Sep 2019 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	26 Sep 2019 06:00	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	26 Sep 2019 12:00	103	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	26 Sep 2019 18:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	27 Sep 2019 00:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	27 Sep 2019 06:00	121	-		-	-	-	-	-	Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Colombia, Guyana, Brazil

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Lorimers, Turks and Caicos Islands. This height is estimated for 27 Sep 2019 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Sep 2019 11:45	Lorimers	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.2
	27 Sep 2019 08:15	Jotajana	Venezuela	0.2
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Organabo	French Guiana	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 09:45	El Cuatro	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 09:45	El Muertico	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 09:45	Tucacas	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 09:45	Los Corales	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 09:45	Las Delicias	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 09:45	Boca del Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 09:45	Boca de Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Jumop	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Calinatay	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Molomana	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Sichipes	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Guayamulisira	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Neima	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Cojua	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Guarurtain	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Jautaipanou	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Jasav	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Uluimana	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Jurulapa	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Gualipana	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Cojoro	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:00	Guasapatu	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Los Filudos	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	La Gloria	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Pararu	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Campamento	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	La Punta	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Paraguaipoa	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Los Aceitunitos	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Guichep	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Los Mochos	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Juruba	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Campo Alegre	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Zulia Mar	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 11:30	Bellevue	Haiti	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 11:30	Arcahaie	Haiti	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 11:30	Aubry	Haiti	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 11:30	Port-au-Prince	Haiti	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	El Tunal	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	San Francisco	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	El Horcon	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	Chacachacare	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	Punta de Piedras	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	Piedras Negras	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	La Guardia	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Los Hermanitos	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Botoncillo	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Caimare Chico	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Caraipia	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Boca Paijana	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Puerto Cardoncito	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Palachuou	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:30	Potchoure	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:15	Zarrupiai	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:15	Cuzi	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:15	Morchipa	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:15	Parsua	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	Los Boquerones	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	La Villa	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	El Manglar	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	Tocuyo de la Costa	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	Playa Norte	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:15	Las Empalizadas	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Puertecitos	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Cardoncito	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Puerto Guerrero	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Calle Ancha	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Puerto Mara	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	Paijana	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 06:45	San Carlos	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:00	Ariota	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:00	No Alonso	Venezuela	0.1
	27 Sep 2019 10:00	Soledad	Venezuela	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.