Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KAREN-19 in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela from 22 Sep 2019 09:00 UTC to 27 Sep 2019 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAREN-19

in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KAREN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (25 Sep 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (British Virgin Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	43 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	79 km/h	0.6 m	123 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela	406,872	+
	Haiti	75,135
	Colombia	294,191
	Venezuela	37,546

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	120	-		-	-	-	-	-	Trinidad and Tobago
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	186	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	160	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	64	-		-	-	-	-	-	Puerto Rico
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Organabo, French Guiana. This height is estimated for 25 Sep 2019 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Sep 2019 06:15	Organabo	French Guiana	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 10:15	Lorimers	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:00	El Cuatro	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:00	El Muertico	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:00	Tucacas	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:00	Los Corales	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:00	Las Delicias	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:00	Boca del Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:00	Boca de Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Fleche	French Guiana	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Mamaribo	French Guiana	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Bellevue	French Guiana	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Roche Brigandin	French Guiana	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Sinnamary	French Guiana	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 10:00	La Linea	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Fullarton	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Coromandel Settlement	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Chatham	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	San Francique	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Los Bajos	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	Ariota	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	No Alonso	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	Soledad	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:30	La Vacama	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 11:15	Irapa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 11:15	Soro	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Punta Santiago	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Playa Fortuna	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Playa de Humacao	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	San Vicente	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Naguabo	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Luquillo	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Ramos	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Estacion Botija	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	El Banco	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Margarita	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Campamento Punta Lima	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Daguao	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Aguas Claras	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Convento	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Fajardo	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Ceiba	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Isidra	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Luis M. Cintron	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Roosevelt Roads	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Las Croabas	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Hacienda Arcadia	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Isabel Segunda	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:30	Santa Maria	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Aubry	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Port-au-Prince	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Bellevue	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Arcahaie	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Irois	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Point Fortin	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:15	Las Lisas	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:15	Kew	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:15	Bottle Creek	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:15	Conch Bar	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Morne Diablo	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:00	Iracoubo	French Guiana	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	Cabo Blanco	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Las Cruces	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Arenas	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	El Coco	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 11:15	Guiria	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Jumop	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Calinatay	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Molomana	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Sichipes	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Guayamulisira	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Neima	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Cojua	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Guarurtain	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Jautaipanou	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Jasav	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Uluimana	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Jurulapa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Gualipana	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Cojoro	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Guasapatu	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 09:45	Kourou	French Guiana	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Puebloviejo	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Tasajera	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Palmira	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Isla del Rosario	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Cienaga	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	La Elisa	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	Hacienda Papare	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Majors	The Bahamas	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Browns	The Bahamas	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Chesters	The Bahamas	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:00	Hackney	Guyana	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:00	Marlborough	Guyana	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 07:45	Jotajana	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Los Filudos	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	La Gloria	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Pararu	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Campamento	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	La Punta	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Paraguaipoa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Los Aceitunitos	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Guichep	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Los Mochos	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Juruba	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Los Boquerones	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	La Villa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	El Manglar	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Tocuyo de la Costa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Playa Norte	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Las Empalizadas	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	Carrizal	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	El Cabo	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	Amaiquiro	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:30	Junain	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	La Esmeralda	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Guaca	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Jeremie	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Roseaux	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Corail	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:15	Augier	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 11:00	Sabana Cruz	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 11:00	El Copey	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Palachuou	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Potchoure	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Zarrupiai	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Cuzi	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Morchipa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 12:00	Parsua	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Barque	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Lombard	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 10:45	Cap-Haitien	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	El Tunal	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	San Francisco	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	El Horcon	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Chacachacare	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	Piedras Negras	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 06:45	La Guardia	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Panapo	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Uchire	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Chavez	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Altagracia	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Manzanillo	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Paraguchi	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 08:00	Pampatar	Venezuela	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.