Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAREN-19
in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela

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2019-09-27 20:37

WTNT42 KNHC 272035
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Karen Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that Karen's
circulation has opened up into a surface trough of low pressure.
In addition, the associated convection has continued to lose
organization. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical
cyclone, and this will be the final advisory. Maximum winds, based
on the ASCAT pass, remain near 30 kt.

Although an area of low pressure may persist for a few more days,
the circulation should remain poorly organized, and the remnants
are not expected to produce any significant convection. The
surface trough is expected to move little during the next 24 hours,
but it should then begin moving westward by 48 hours as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 29.3N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-27 20:36

WTNT32 KNHC 272034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Karen Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 58.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Karen were located near
latitude 29.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) but should stall and then
begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Winds associated with the remnants are expected to
gradually decrease during the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-27 20:36

WTNT22 KNHC 272034
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 58.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 58.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 58.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-27 14:59

WTNT42 KNHC 271456 CCA
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours

Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly
disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the
circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that
extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial
ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of
the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered,
probably still generously, to 30 kt.

Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is
now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The
shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and
also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to
weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest
global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then
open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current
structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these
options could occur as soon as later today.

The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it
becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its
eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward
on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the
western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with
the reasoning from previous NHC advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-27 14:43

WTNT42 KNHC 271440
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly
disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the
circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that
extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial
ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of
the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered,
probably still generously, to 30 kt.

Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is
now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The
shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and
also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to
weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest
global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep
convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours and then
open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current
structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these
options could occur as soon as later today.

The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it
becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its
eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward
on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the
western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with
the reasoning from previous NHC advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-27 14:42

WTNT32 KNHC 271439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY
TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 59.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 59.6 West. Karen is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this evening. Karen
should then stall overnight and begin moving westward on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is
expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough of
low pressure by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-27 14:42

WTNT22 KNHC 271439
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 59.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 59.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 59.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-27 08:52

WTNT42 KNHC 270850
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Karen's status as a tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly
dubious. In a trio of ASCAT passes that arrived yesterday evening,
the circulation of the cyclone was indistinguishable from a surface
boundary that extends south from the remnants of post-tropical
cyclone Jerry. This suggests that Karen's circulation may no longer
be well-defined. Furthermore, deep convection near the center of
Karen has generally decreased and become less organized since last
night. Satellite-based intensity estimates support maintaining the
intensity of Karen at 35 kt, but this could be generous given that
the max winds observed in the earlier ASCAT data were lower.

Regardless of the exact starting intensity of the cyclone, gradual
weakening is expected for the next few days. There is unanimous
agreement among the dynamical models on this scenario. Simulated
satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show the cyclone
devoid of deep convection within 36 hours, if not sooner.
Increasingly hostile upper-level winds should then prevent the
cyclone from reorganizing and it is forecast to dissipate in about
four days.

It has been difficult to locate the center of Karen overnight and
the initial motion estimate is uncertain but also unchanged
(055/7 kt). The global models are forecasting that Karen will
continue to move on this general heading through this morning before
it stalls tonight. A building ridge to the north should cause Karen
or its remnants to start moving westward over the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 28.3N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-27 08:48

WTNT32 KNHC 270846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Karen is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast
to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A
westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-27 08:47

WTNT22 KNHC 270844
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 61.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-27 02:35

WTNT42 KNHC 270233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA
buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure
occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are
rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite
imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated
with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a
convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on
the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from
SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous
initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass
measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area
where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today.

In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly
hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter,
the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this
anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and
become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate
into a remnant low.

Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055
degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours
as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most
likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The
system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in
3 days or so as forecast by global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 27.8N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-27 02:33

WTNT32 KNHC 270231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 62.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Karen is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but is expected to
become nearly stationary by Friday night or early Saturday. It
should then begin to move westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-27 02:33

WTNT22 KNHC 270231
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 62.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-26 20:37

WTNT42 KNHC 262035
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049
indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly
elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also
supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The
deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is
imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear
during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their
simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen
losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on
that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low
in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear
by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by
day 5.

Fixes suggest that Karen is slowing down a bit and turning to the
right, with an initial motion of 025/10 kt. The steering flow will
be evolving over the next couple of days with high pressure
building to the north of Karen over the western Atlantic. This
will cause the cyclone to almost come to a stop in about 36 hours,
and then turn to the west by 48 hours until dissipation on day 5.
This is the same forecast reasoning as before, and the new NHC
forecast is just an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 27.2N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.2N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 28.1N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 27.9N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 27.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-26 20:36

WTNT32 KNHC 262034
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 62.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 62.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm
is expected to turn eastward and become nearly stationary by Friday
night, and then begin moving westward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Karen is
expected to become a remnant low by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-26 20:36

WTNT22 KNHC 262034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 62.9W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 62.9W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.2N 60.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.1N 60.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.9N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 27.9N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-26 14:55

WTNT42 KNHC 261453
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Karen has been maintaining a cluster of convection to the west of
its center, but visible satellite images and wind data from NOAA
buoy 40149 to the northeast suggest that the low-level circulation
is becoming elongated. This structure has been confirmed by a
late-arriving ASCAT pass, and that data also show that Karen is
producing winds to 40 kt within the deep convection.

Karen is embedded in the flow between a mid-level high centered over
the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low which is slowly
retrograding westward over the Bahamas. This is maintaining a
north-northeastward motion of 015/12 kt. The central Atlantic high
is expected to weaken over the next 2 days, while a new high
develops over the western Atlantic, causing Karen to make a
clockwise loop well to the southeast of Bermuda. Once the western
Atlantic high becomes established, Karen is then expected to move
generally westward on days 3 through 5. There have been no
significant changes among the track models, and the new NHC track
forecast is therefore very similar to the previous one.

Relatively light winds aloft and warm ocean waters could allow
Karen to maintain its intensity for another day or two. After that
time, however, an increase in northerly shear will likely allow
ambient dry air to infiltrate into the circulation further. The
dynamical models--which we're now heavily favoring in our
forecasts--are showing gradual weakening and even a loss of
organized deep convection in a few days. Therefore, Karen is now
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The low is
expected to plow into strong southwesterly shear on days 4 and 5
while it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic, which should
keep it as a remnant low or possibly cause it to open up into a
trough of low pressure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 26.6N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-26 14:55

WTNT32 KNHC 261453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...BUT FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 63.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 63.3 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
through this evening. Karen is then forecast to make a slow
clockwise loop, ultimately moving westward by early Sunday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast
by the weekend, and Karen is expected to become a remnant low by
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-26 14:55

WTNT22 KNHC 261453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 63.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 63.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 63.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-26 08:36

WTNT42 KNHC 260834
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Karen is barely a tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes from
several hours ago showed maximum winds between 30 and 35 kt in the
southeastern quadrant of the storm. Those passes also indicate
that the circulation is quite broad and weak on the west side.
Based on the ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak classification, the
initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm appears quite
disheveled in satellite images, with an elongated east to west
convective pattern and a lack of well-defined banding features.

Karen has not been able to take advantage of the relatively
favorable environment that it has been in during the past day or
so, which was well anticipated by the dynamical models, but
poorly forecast by the statistical-dynamical aids. The storm will
remain in generally favorable conditions through tonight, so it
should be able to maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen
slightly during that time. After that, however, the models show a
steady increase in shear and drier air in the vicinity of the
cyclone. These conditions should cause weakening and will likely
lead to the system either losing its deep convection and becoming a
remnant low or dissipating entirely in 3 or 4 days when it moves
into a region of strong westerly shear. The NHC intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one and leans more on the GFS and ECMWF
guidance.

The tropical storm is still moving north-northeastward at 13 kt
steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid-
to upper-level low to its west over the Bahamas. The low is
expected to weaken and lift out during the next few days allowing a
low- to mid-level ridge to strengthen and build to the north of
Karen. This change in the steering flow should cause Karen, or its
remnants, to move slower to the northeast and east through Friday,
followed by a motion to the west-southwest this weekend. Only minor
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one
lies closest to the HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 25.5N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-26 08:33

WTNT32 KNHC 260831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 63.5W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
northeastward to eastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through Friday. Karen, or its remnants, are
then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the
southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-26 08:33

WTNT22 KNHC 260831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 63.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-26 02:36

WTNT42 KNHC 260234
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Karen's cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a
tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a
curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but
it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are
still occuring in the southeast quadrant.

Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it
will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an
unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global
models show a weaker and weaker cyclone. My predecessor wisely
stated in the advisory "it is time to put more weight in the global
models" and I will do so in this one. On this basis, the NHC
forecast no longer calls for strengthening, and maintains Karen
generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for
weakening thereafter. Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in
about 4 days, but is very likely that this could occur much sooner.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by
the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a
subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is
expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so.
A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak
and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered
by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile
upper-level winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 24.4N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-26 02:36

WTNT32 KNHC 260233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are
then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the
southwestern Atlantic into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches tonight across the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches. These rains may
cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-26 02:35

WTNT22 KNHC 260233
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 63.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-25 20:39

WTNT42 KNHC 252037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karen
found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR-measured
winds of 34 kt. Although those surface winds were coincident with
some heavy rains, which makes them questionable, it is assumed that
there are still some tropical-storm-force winds somewhere within
the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.

Karen has turned toward the north-northeast with an initial motion
of 015/12 kt. The cyclone is positioned between a mid-level high
centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low
spinning just east of the Bahamas. The steering flow between these
two features should keep Karen on a generally northeastward
trajectory during the next 48 hours. Around that time, a blocking
ridge is expected to build to the north of Karen, causing it to make
a clockwise loop and move west-southwestward by days 4 and 5.
Compared to the previous cycle, the track models are allowing Karen
to get farther to the northeast before it makes its loop, which ends
up slowing down the 4- and 5-day NHC forecast points. Even with
that change, however, the forecast path of Karen is relatively
unchanged from before.

It's probably time to put more weight on the dynamical models for
Karen's future intensity. The cyclone has continued to struggle
in its environment, which is essentially what those models have been
indicating all along. Even the statistical-dynamical models, which
are explicitly showing strengthening, indicate that the environment
won't be very favorable, with convergence aloft and a dry mid-level
air mass. Because of those factors, and the lower initial
intensity, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered considerably
from this morning's forecast. It still allows for the possibility
of some strengthening, but if model trends continue, the official
forecast could be lowered further in subsequent advisories. And if
the global models are correct, Karen could even lose deep
convection, and hence become post-tropical, in about 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.9N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-25 20:38

WTNT32 KNHC 252036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER...
...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 64.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 64.3 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to
slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic
into the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-25 20:38

WTNT22 KNHC 252035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 64.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 63.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.9N 60.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 26.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 64.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-25 14:52

WTNT42 KNHC 251450
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Karen is still having a tough time establishing and maintaining a
well-organized structure. The deep convection which developed over
the center earlier this morning has since collapsed, leaving a
ragged and disorganized cloud pattern. In addition, a sizable
outflow boundary moving away from the eastern part of the
circulation suggests that there is dry air within the vortex. The
initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, pending possible
scatterometer data later this morning and a reconnaissance flight
this afternoon.

The initial position is a little difficult to locate, but the best
estimate of the current motion is 360/13 kt. Karen is moving
northward between a mid-level high centered over the central
Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low located just east of the
Bahamas. This low is expected to slowly retrograde westward, with
ridging developing over the western Atlantic by day 3. This change
in steering will cause Karen to turn northeastward during the next
48 hours but then make a clockwise loop once it is blocked by the
ridge. After day 3, the ridge should force Karen to move
west-southwestward. Most of the track models agree on this general
scenario. There is some latitudinal spread on days 4 and 5 after
the loop occurs, with the HWRF being the most notable outlier by
not showing much of a westward motion. The consensus aids,
however, have remained fairly steady, and therefore there was no
compelling reason to make any significant changes compared to the
previous track forecast.

Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not
quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization.
Still, the cyclone is expected to move beneath an upper-level
anticyclone during the next 24-48 hours, and if the shear does
indeed decrease, then some strengthening would be expected. There
continues to be a dichotomy among the intensity models, with the
dynamical models (including the GFS and ECMWF) keeping the cyclone
weak while the statistical-dynamical models still show
intensification through days 4 and 5. It's difficult to ignore
what's being shown by the global models, since there must be
something in the environment that they're deeming to be negative
for continued strengthening. The best course of action at this
point is to maintain a steady intensity after 48 hours, but it
should be noted that what is shown in the official forecast still
lies above the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected
consensus aid.

Key Messages:

1. Karen will continue to produce heavy rainfall, potentially
causing additional flash floods and mudslides, across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the
region.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.7N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-25 14:52

WTNT32 KNHC 251450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 64.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 64.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to
slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic
into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-25 14:52

WTNT22 KNHC 251450
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 64.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 64.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 65.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 64.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-25 08:55

WTNT42 KNHC 250852
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Karen's convection has increased significantly and become better
organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level
circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has
intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely
encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level
wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the
southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened
slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent
increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced
increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller
radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest
that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity
is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation
that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since
weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images.

Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger
and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a
northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward
motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward
to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward
speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering
currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or
make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast
that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States
to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to west-southwestward
direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model
TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models
FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south.

The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the
dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for
the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day
5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models
show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with
Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global
models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level
circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry
mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting
off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that
Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and
underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors
strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C
water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity
forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model
solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a
little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and
mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 20.5N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-25 08:54

WTNT32 KNHC 250852
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 65.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of
Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands today through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-25 08:52

WTNT22 KNHC 250850
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 65.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-25 06:01

WTNT32 KNHC 250559
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 65.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by the NOAA San Juan Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 65.1
West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
is expected to move toward the north today, followed by a motion
toward the north-northeast tonight through Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther
away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today. However, strong
squalls located to the south and southeast of the center will
continue to affect those areas early this morning before subsiding
by late morning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (67 km/h)
was recently reported at a couple of locations on St. Thomas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on information from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through today:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue across the warning area this morning. Winds could be
higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in
elevated terrain. This winds should gradually decrease later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-25 02:39

WTNT42 KNHC 250237
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

During the afternoon and early evening hours, satellite images
indicated that the cloud pattern associated with Karen was
becoming a little better organized. Then, surface observations from
the area just east of Puerto Rico indicated that the pressures
were falling, and a center was apparently becoming better defined.
The presence of this center was confirmed by a reconnaissance
plane which was able to fix a tight small circulation of about 1002
or 1003 mb. This, by no means, indicates that the overall
circulation of the cyclone is well organized. Winds are still swirly
on the western portion of the circulation and are responding to an
elongated trough of low pressure north of Puerto Rico. In fact, I
would not be surprised if another center reforms father to west
within the trough or the large cyclonic envelope, and the center we
are tracking dissipates. In any case, preliminary analysis indicates
that the center of Karen that we were tracking moved very near or
over Vieques around 2100 UTC and then over Culebra a little bit
later. This small center could also have been a meso-vortex within
the larger circulation.

Data from the reconnaissance plane and satellite intensity estimates
yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. These winds are occurring
primarily to the southeast of the center. Karen is heading toward a
shear environment that is not ideal at all for significant
intensification. As previously indicated, the NHC forecast calls for
a very modest increase in intensity during the next 3 to 5 days as
indicated by the HCCA model. However, some of the statistical
guidance brings Karen to hurricane status by the end of the
forecast period.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Karen is moving
toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 12 kt. This motion
however, is highly uncertain because it includes the reformation of
the center. The circulation of Karen is trapped between a
subtropical high over the Atlantic and a mid-level trough over the
Bahamas. This flow pattern will continue to steer Karen in this same
generaldirection for the next 3 days. After that time, the steering
flow is forecast to collapse, and Karen, if it is still a cyclone,
will begin to meander. This would allow another ridge to develop
north of the cyclone and force it to move westward. This is the
solution provided by most of the global models.


Key Messages:

1. Karen will continue to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands into Wednesday even as the center moves away from the
region.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.1N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 20.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 23.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 26.8N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-25 02:39

WTNT32 KNHC 250237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 65.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
estimated near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 65.0 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). Karen
should continue to move toward the north-northeast through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move away
from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours,
but the strong squalls which are to the south of the center will
continue to affect that area through tonight. Karen should move over
the western Atlantic later tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico, Vieques and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain. This winds should gradually decrease on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-25 02:39

WTNT22 KNHC 250237
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 65.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 65.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.8N 64.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 65.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-24 23:44

WTNT32 KNHC 242342
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF KAREN MOVED OVER VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...
...HEAVY SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM N OF CULEBRA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Surface observations indicate that the broad circulation center of
Karen moved near or over the islands of Vieques and Culebra during
the past hour or so. At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of
Tropical Storm Karen was estimated near latitude 18.5 North,
longitude 65.3 West. Karen has been moving toward the northeast
near 10 mph (16 km/h). However, Karen should move toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed tonight, with
this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Karen will move away from Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands during the next few hours, but the strong squalls
which are to the south of the center will continue to affect that
area through tonight. Karen should move over the western Atlantic
later tonight and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds area confined mostly to the southeast of the
center. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. St. Thomas has recently
reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h)

The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations
and data from a reconnaissance plane is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-24 20:51

WTNT42 KNHC 242049
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

The satellite appearance of Karen has improved over the past
several hours, with a large convective band wrapped about halfway
around the center in the western semicircle and an outer band in
the southeastern semicircle. However, surface observations,
Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation is elongated
from south to north and that multiple vorticity centers are present.
The lowest pressures and the strongest winds are at the southern
end of the elongation near the eastern end of the convective band,
and this is the center used for this advisory. The Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported 53 kt flight-level winds at 850 mb and data
suggesting a central pressure near 1005 mb, so the initial intensity
is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion is again 360/7, with some uncertainty due to the
multiple vorticity centers and an apparent re-formation of the
center closer to the convection between 15Z-18Z. Karen remains in a
complex steering environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge
to the east and northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-
northwest, and a large mid- to upper-level trough extending from
near Jerry to eastern Cuba. These weather systems should steer
Karen generally north-northeastward for the next couple of days.
This motion should bring the center of Karen near or over Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and then into
the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120 h period, the
large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge to build near
Karen, which will significantly slow its forward motion. The track
guidance is in somewhat better agreement that this ridge will cause
Karen to turn westward near the end of the forecast period,
although there remains a lot of uncertainty about when and how
fast. The new forecast track keeps Karen a little farther south
before this turn occurs, and thus the 120-h position is a little to
the south of the previous forecast.

Karen is moving into an area of weaker shear, and should remain in
that environment for the next 2-3 days. Thus, strengthening is
expected, with the main limiting factor being the current poor
organization of the circulation. From 72-120 h, the storm is
expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit
intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea
surface temperature environment. In addition, several of the
global models suggest that another round of shear could affect
Karen near the 120 h point. If this occurs, the cyclone could end
up weaker than forecast in this advisory. The new intensity
forecast has minor changes from the previous forecast, and it again
lies between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger
statistical-dynamical models.


Key Messages:

1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.0N 65.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.6N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.9N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 24.2N 64.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 25.9N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 27.2N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 27.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 26.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-24 20:50

WTNT32 KNHC 242048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN NOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northeast with some increase in forward speed is forecast
tonight, with this motion continuing through Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next few hours and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours,
wind gusts of tropical-storm force have been reported in portions
of the Virgin Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-24 20:50

WTNT22 KNHC 242048
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 65.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.6N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.9N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.2N 61.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-24 17:48

WTNT32 KNHC 241745
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 66.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 66.0 West. Karen has
moved erratically during the past few hours as the center has
re-formed a little to the west. However, it is expected to resume
a motion toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) this afternoon. A
north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is
forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western
Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. Surface observations
indicate that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring over
portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are
currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher
on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated
terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-24 14:54

WTNT42 KNHC 241452
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that there has been little change in either
the structure or the intensity of Karen since the last advisory.
The broad and elongated low-level center is located to the north of
the strong convection, and the aircraft has reported a central
pressure of 1007 mb and maximum 1500 ft flight-level winds of 35 kt
south of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory.

The initial motion is now 360/7. Karen is in a complex steering
environment that includes a low- to mid-level ridge to the east and
northeast, Tropical Storm Jerry to the north-northwest, and a large
mid- to upper-level trough extending from near Jerry to eastern
Cuba. These weather systems should steer Karen generally northward
today, followed by a north-northeastward motion that should
continue for a couple of days. This motion should bring the center
of Karen near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
afternoon, then into the open Atlantic tonight. During the 72-120
h period, the large-scale models forecast a low- to mid-level ridge
to build near Karen, which will significantly slow its forward
motion. The new forecast track will continue the trend of the
previous forecast and the ECMWF model in showing the ridge building
enough to turn Karen west-southwestward by 120 h. However, other
models suggest a looping motion or little motion during the 96-120
h, and this part of the forecast track is quite uncertain.

The large-scale models forecast the shear that has been affecting
Karen to diminish during the next couple of days, which should
allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen. From 72-120 h, the
storm is expected to start entraining dry air, which could limit
intensification despite the otherwise favorable shear and sea
surface temperature environment. The new intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies between the
weaker dynamical models and the stronger statistical-dynamical
models.


Key Messages:

1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-24 14:54

WTNT32 KNHC 241451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A north-northeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-24 14:53

WTNT22 KNHC 241451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 65.8W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 64.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.6N 64.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.5N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.8N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-24 11:38

WTNT32 KNHC 241136
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HEAVY RAINS FROM KAREN MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
CULEBRA, AND VIEQUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 17.2 North, longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the
north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue today. A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and
then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-24 08:54

WTNT42 KNHC 240851
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

During the last pass through Karen's center around 0430 UTC, the Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft reported some believable SFMR winds of
34-35 kt in the southeastern quadrant and an extrapolated central
pressure of 1006 mb. The 925-mb flight-level height had also
decreased by almost 20 meters in about 2 hours, an indication that
the lower pressure estimate was legitimate. Reflectivity and
velocity data from the San Juan NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radar also
enunciate that Karen's inner-core has become better defined over
the past few hours. Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were
T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and T2.4/34 kt and 40 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON, respectively. Based on the recon and satellite intensity
data, Karen has re-strengthened to tropical storm status.

The initial motion is now northward or 360/06 kt. Karen's forecast
track hinges heavily on the future intensity and associated vertical
structure of the cyclone. The GFS, GFS-Legacy, UKMET, and HRWF
dynamical models take a much weaker and more vertically shallow
cyclone northeastward after 48 hours and either continue with that
motion through day 5 or dissipate the system. In contrast, the ECMWF
and many of its stronger ensemble members stall Karen around days
3-4 and then turn the somewhat stronger and deeper cyclone westward
to west-southwestward to the south of a building ridge. Given that
Karen is forecast to be stronger and vertically deeper than the
weaker models, the current track forecast leans more toward the
stronger ECMWF and ECMWF-Ensemble model solutions. The new NHC
forecast is to the right of the previous advisory track and slower,
especially on days 3-5, but the new track does not extend as far
east as the weaker GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models or the consensus
models that incorporate those three models.

None of the dynamical models, including the HWRF and HMON hurricane
models, show much in the way of strengthening once Karen moves
north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands except for the ECMWF model,
despite the very low vertical wind shear conditions that the cyclone
will be moving into by 24 hours and beyond. Given Karen's decent
wind field and vertical structure, the expected low shear
conditions, moist mid-level environment, and SSTs of more than 29
deg C for the next 48 hours or so, forecasting at least slow but
steady strengthening seems to be quite reasonable. By days 3-5, the
mid-level environment dries out significantly, which the weaker
models seem to be keying on. However, if Karen strengthens as
currently expected, then the cyclone's robust circulation should
be able to mix out any dry air intrusions, allowing for at least
additional modest intensification to occur in the 72-120 hour
period. The official intensity forecast is a little above the
previous advisory, and is basically an average of the weaker
dynamical models and the stronger GFS- and ECMWF-based
statistical-dynamical models Decay-SHIPS and LGEM.

Key Messages:

1. Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and
mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall
and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.8N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 18.1N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.6N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 27.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-24 08:52

WTNT32 KNHC 240850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...KAREN BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 65.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located by the San Juan Doppler radar near latitude 16.8 North,
longitude 65.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A north-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over
the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-24 08:51

WTNT22 KNHC 240849
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 65.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 65.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 65.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.6N 64.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-24 05:42

WTNT32 KNHC 240540
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West. The
depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over
the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-24 02:53

WTNT42 KNHC 240251
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past
few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the
south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this
evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data
indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The
aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb.

Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday
as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time,
a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the
cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry.
However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen,
and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by
the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although
the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite
uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4
and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.

The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with
north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting
the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to
become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give
it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the
aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show
little change in intensity during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-24 02:53

WTNT32 KNHC 240250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 65.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-24 02:53

WTNT22 KNHC 240250
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 65.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 65.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-23 23:42

WTNT32 KNHC 232339
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...DISORGANIZED KAREN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 65.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 65.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Tuesday, and a
northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday
morning and then move over the western Atlantic Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by early Tuesday. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-23 20:42

WTNT42 KNHC 232040
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Karen has become increasingly disorganized today. Visible
satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a
broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a
well-defined center. Based on the current lack of organization,
the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. The
environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile,
with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing
overnight. After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western
Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level
environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone it
should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur.
As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower
than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence.

Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt. Karen should turn
northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry. A
northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over
the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid-
week. After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build
over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic,
which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary
at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has trended toward Karen
gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track
forecast as been adjusted accordingly. The latter portion of the
track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model
guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread.

Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it
passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm
warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the
wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition,
windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could
experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 17.2N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 18.9N 66.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.3N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-23 20:41

WTNT32 KNHC 232039
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 65.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early
Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should
continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening,
and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late
tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western
Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late tonight. Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-23 20:41

WTNT22 KNHC 232039
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 65.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 65.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 65.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.9N 66.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 66.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.3N 65.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 65.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-23 17:59

WTNT32 KNHC 231757
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 65.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to re in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of Karen in your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of poorly organized Tropical
Storm Karen was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 65.2
West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A
turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea today, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the
north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karen could weaken to a tropical depression or degenerate
into an open wave later today or tonight, however, little overall
change in wind speed is expected over the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-23 14:43

WTNT42 KNHC 231441
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level
swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen
has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is
possible that a center reformation will occur near the new
convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical
cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of
30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still
supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure
of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should
remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength
is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen
could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already.
Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it
passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely
to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall
over those areas. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast
calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable
intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the
intensity forecast is low.

The initial motion estimate is 335/10 kt. Despite the overall lack
of organization of the system, the track guidance is still in good
agreement on Karen turning northward tonight or early Tuesday into
a weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic caused by
Tropical Storm Jerry to its north. After 72 hours, a deep-layer
ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and
western Atlantic which should slow Karen's northward progress and
could cause the system to essentially stall over the western
Atlantic by the end of the period. The new NHC track forecast is
again close to the previous advisory, and is near the consensus
aids through 96 h. At 120 h, the NHC forecast is south of the
consensus models in deference to the more equatorward position
shown by the ECMWF, but the spread of the guidance by that time
is quite large, and confidence in the track forecast at days 4
and 5 is quite low.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Karen's status as a tropical cyclone, this system
is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall,
flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is
in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-23 14:43

WTNT32 KNHC 231441
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday
morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north
of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-23 14:43

WTNT22 KNHC 231440
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.0N 65.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 65.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 65.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.6N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 64.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-23 11:53

WTNT32 KNHC 231151
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through
tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165
km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 8 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-23 09:15

WTNT42 KNHC 230911 CCA
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Corrected Key Messages

Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this
morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a
narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the
southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering
development and organization of that convection. The initial
intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance
flight later this morning provides new information on the strength
of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has
weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant
convection.

The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward
motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the
cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in
about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern
Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly
even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days
4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA,
and FSSE.

The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the
next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens
to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile,
allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen
is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which
should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and
follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm warning is
in effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.5N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-23 08:58

WTNT42 KNHC 230856
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Karen's convective pattern has become quite disheveled looking this
morning due to 20-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. a
narrow band of deep convection has recently reformed in the
southeastern quadrant, but proximity to dry air has been hindering
development and organization of that convection. The initial
intensity has been held at 35 kt until the next reconnaissance
flight later this morning provides new information on the strength
of the cyclone. However, I would not be surprised if Karen has
weakened to a tropical depression based on the lack of significant
convection.

The initial motion is now 320/07 kt. The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement that Karen should continue a northwestward
motion today toward a break in the subtropical ridge, followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday that would take the center of the
cyclone near or over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands in
about 36 hours. Karen is forecast to emerge over the southwestern
Atlantic near 48 hours and then slow down significantly and possibly
even stall or loop several hundred nmi north of Puerto Rico on days
4 and 5 as a large ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
close to the average of the consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA,
and FSSE.

The upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for the
next 24 hours or so, and I would not be surprised if Karen weakens
to a tropical depression during that time. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, upper-level winds are expected to become much less hostile,
allowing some modest strengthening to occur. By days 4 and 5, Karen
is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which
should allow for more significant intensification to occur. The new
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and
follows the trend of the various intensity consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in
effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.5N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 27.0N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-23 08:52

WTNT32 KNHC 230850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...DISORGANIZED KAREN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 63.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
likely within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 63.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48
hours due to strong upper-level winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected
in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-23 08:35

WTNT22 KNHC 230833
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 63.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 63.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.5N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 65.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.6N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 26.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 27.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-23 05:42

WTNT32 KNHC 230540
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required
for portions of these areas on later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is now
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On
Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3
inches.

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-23 02:56

WTNT42 KNHC 230254
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Karen remains poorly organized this evening, with the low-level
center exposed to the north of the main convective mass due to the
effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical shear. The initial
intensity will be held at 35 kt based on earlier Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data that included maximum 1500 ft flight-level
winds of 42 kt and SFMR surface wind estimates near 35 kt.

The initial motion is 295/10. The track guidance is in excellent
agreement that Karen should turn northwestward during the next 6-12
h in response to a break in a ridge to the north of the storm,
followed by a northward motion that would take the center near
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands into the Atlantic between 36-48
h. Late in the forecast period, the steering currents are expected
to weaken as a strong deep-layer ridge builds eastward from the
United States into the western Atlantic. This should cause Karen
to slow its forward motion. The new forecast track is little
changed from the previous track and is near the center of the
guidance envelope and the various consensus models.

The upper-level winds are currently not favorable for significant
development, and the current shear might get stronger during the
next 12-24 h. Thus, little change in strength is forecast while
Karen crosses the eastern Caribbean, and the system may have trouble
maintaining tropical cyclone status. The environment becomes more
favorable for development from 48 h on, and the intensity forecast
calls for slow strengthening during this time. The new intensity
forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecasts.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of the southern
Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch is in
effect. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding are possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.1N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.9N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.7N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 22.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-23 02:56

WTNT32 KNHC 230254
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 63.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WNW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen. Additional warnings and watches may be required
for portions of these areas on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed
by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight
through Monday night. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Barbados...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch, storm totals 2 to 3
inches.

Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 8
inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeast Venezuela...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-23 02:55

WTNT22 KNHC 230253
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 63.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 63.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.9N 64.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 65.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.7N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.4N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 63.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-23 00:01

WTNT62 KNHC 222359
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-22 23:39

WTNT32 KNHC 222336
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED KAREN MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 63.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 63.0 West. Karen is
moving generally toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east of the center. The International Airport on
Grenada recently reported sustained winds of 30 mph (48 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-22 20:39

WTNT42 KNHC 222037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization
this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and
northwest of the primary convective band. An Air Force
Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a
well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to
support an intensity of around 30 kt. The plane, however, has
not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains
35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT
data and the recent in situ observations.

The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain
unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an
increase in northeasterly shear by Monday. This is expected to
prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have
trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea. After the system moves north of Puerto Rico
around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level
conditions, and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for
strengthening later in the forecast period. The new intensity
forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous
one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity
consensus (IVCN) model).

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today. Karen
should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or
so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge
over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of
Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in
the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong
deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends
northeastward over the western Atlantic. This pattern is likely to
cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5. The
track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight
adjustments to the previous official forecast were required.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-22 20:38

WTNT32 KNHC 222036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF GRENADA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 62.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight or on
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from
the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday morning.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-22 20:38

WTNT22 KNHC 222036
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 62.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 62.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 62.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-22 17:50

WTNT32 KNHC 221748
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
200 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-22 15:01

WTNT42 KNHC 221459
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with
Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated
early this morning. However, surface observations and a very
recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is
well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward
Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry
mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant
strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may
have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global
models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over
the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico,
the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the
structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range
intensity forecast is quite uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in
good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the
next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week
as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic.
After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to
build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may
cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory
and lies near the consensus models.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 12.5N 61.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-22 14:56

WTNT32 KNHC 221454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.
Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-22 14:55

WTNT22 KNHC 221453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 61.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 61.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-22 11:56

WTNT32 KNHC 221153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Karen is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across
the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-22 09:10

WTNT62 KNHC 220908
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
510 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St.
Vincent and the Grenadines.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-22 09:02

WTNT42 KNHC 220900
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward
Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago
has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery
also show that deep convection has increased and has become better
organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute
wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data
showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle.
Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern
Windward Islands as a result.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest
NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving
northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north
into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is
forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on
day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern
United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official
track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX.

Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48
hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the
upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen
maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable
shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move
underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a
significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level
outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model.

A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be
issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 60.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-22 09:00

WTNT32 KNHC 220857
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 60.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad and Tobago. The Trinidad and Tobago
Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other
portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely
be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Karen.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm
Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.2 West.
Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn
toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move
across the Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, and emerge
over the southeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. On Tuesday,
Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. Barbados recently reported a sustained wind of
37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those
islands within the warning area later this morning and afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-22 09:00

WTNT22 KNHC 220857
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 60.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 60.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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