Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KAREN-19 in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela from 22 Sep 2019 09:00 UTC to 27 Sep 2019 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAREN-19

in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KAREN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (25 Sep 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (British Virgin Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	68 km/h	0.3 m	33 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	79 km/h	0.6 m	123 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	25 Sep 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	25 Sep 2019 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Colombia, Venezuela	423,467	+
	Colombia	394,316
	Venezuela	29,151

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	120	-		-	-	-	-	-	Trinidad and Tobago
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	186	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	160	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	64	-		-	-	-	-	-	Puerto Rico
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	25 Sep 2019 12:00	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	25 Sep 2019 18:00	264	-		-	-	-	-	-	Colombia, Venezuela

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Aubry, Haiti. This height is estimated for 25 Sep 2019 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Sep 2019 23:00	Aubry	Haiti	0.3
	25 Sep 2019 23:00	Port-au-Prince	Haiti	0.3
	25 Sep 2019 23:00	Bellevue	Haiti	0.3
	25 Sep 2019 23:00	Arcahaie	Haiti	0.3
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Lorimers	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	El Cuatro	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	El Muertico	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	Tucacas	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	Los Corales	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	Las Delicias	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	Boca del Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	Boca de Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 18:30	Ariota	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 18:30	No Alonso	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 18:30	Soledad	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 23:45	Irapa	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 23:45	Soro	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Guiria	Venezuela	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 23:00	Augier	Haiti	0.2
	25 Sep 2019 21:30	Organabo	French Guiana	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 22:00	Fleche	French Guiana	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 22:00	Mamaribo	French Guiana	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 22:00	Bellevue	French Guiana	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Jotajana	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Puebloviejo	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Tasajera	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Palmira	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Isla del Rosario	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Cienaga	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	La Elisa	Colombia	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Hacienda Papare	Colombia	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Kew	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Bottle Creek	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Conch Bar	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	La Guardia	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	Altagracia	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	La Uva	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	El Yaque	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	San Antonio	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	Paraguchi	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	Porlamar	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	Pampatar	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Fullarton	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Coromandel Settlement	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Chatham	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	San Francique	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:00	La Vacama	Dominican Republic	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Corriverton	Suriname	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Nieuw Nickerie	Suriname	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	San Pedro de Coche	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:15	Guamache	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Los Bajos	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Punta Santiago	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Playa Fortuna	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Playa de Humacao	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	San Vicente	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Naguabo	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Luquillo	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Ramos	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Estacion Botija	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	El Banco	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Margarita	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Campamento Punta Lima	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Daguao	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Aguas Claras	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Convento	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Fajardo	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Ceiba	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Isidra	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Luis M. Cintron	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Roosevelt Roads	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Las Croabas	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Hacienda Arcadia	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Isabel Segunda	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Santa Maria	Puerto Rico	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	El Tunal	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	San Francisco	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	El Horcon	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Chacachacare	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Punta de Piedras	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Piedras Negras	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Majors	The Bahamas	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Browns	The Bahamas	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Chesters	The Bahamas	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Chipumena	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Guaical	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Flores	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	El Aguasal	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Carenero	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Higuerote	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Buche	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Sotillo	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Boca Vieja	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Pueblo Nuevo	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Paparo	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Zalazar	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Puerto de Hierro	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 19:15	Cabo Blanco	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 19:15	La Esmeralda	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 19:15	Guaca	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:00	Nan-Mangot	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:00	Boucan a Lait	Haiti	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Irois	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:15	Point Fortin	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	La Villa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	El Manglar	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Tibana	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Tocuyo de la Costa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Sanare	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Cuara	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	La Soledad	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Santa Ana	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Playa Norte	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Las Empalizadas	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	La Luisa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	El Pasdero	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Pta. Brava	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Chichiriviche	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	Morrocoy	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 20:45	San Rafael	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:45	Las Lisas	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 19:30	Spring Point	The Bahamas	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:30	Caimancito	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:00	Las Cruces	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:00	Arenas	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:00	El Coco	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 19:00	Carupano	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 19:00	Puerto Santo	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:15	Moron	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:15	Taborda	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:15	El Palito	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:15	Goaigoaza	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:15	Sta. Rosa	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Bavaro	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Punta Cabo	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 18:45	Cabo Engano	Dominican Republic	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Guayamulisira	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Neima	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Cojua	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Campamento	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Guarurtain	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	La Punta	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Paraguaipoa	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Los Aceitunitos	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Guichep	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Jautaipanou	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Jurulapa	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Gualipana	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Jasav	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Uluimana	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Cojoro	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Guasapatu	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Palachuou	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 00:00	Potchoure	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:15	Puerto Piritu	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 21:15	El Jose	Venezuela	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Sabaneta de Yasica	Dominican Republic	0.1
	25 Sep 2019 23:30	Magante	Dominican Republic	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.