Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KAREN-19 in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela from 22 Sep 2019 09:00 UTC to 27 Sep 2019 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAREN-19

in Virgin Islands, British, Virgin Islands, U.S., Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KAREN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (26 Sep 10:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (British Virgin Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	36 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	79 km/h	0.6 m	123 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	British Virgin Islands, Virgin Islands
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	25 Sep 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	25 Sep 2019 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	26 Sep 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	26 Sep 2019 06:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Venezuela, Colombia, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil	218,879	+
	Venezuela	21,503
	Colombia	194,298
	Guyana	2,632
	Suriname	435
	Brazil	11

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	22 Sep 2019 06:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	22 Sep 2019 12:00	120	-		-	-	-	-	-	Trinidad and Tobago
3	22 Sep 2019 18:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
4	23 Sep 2019 00:00	186	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela
5	23 Sep 2019 06:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	23 Sep 2019 12:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	23 Sep 2019 18:00	160	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	24 Sep 2019 00:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	24 Sep 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	24 Sep 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	24 Sep 2019 18:00	78	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	25 Sep 2019 00:00	64	-		-	-	-	-	-	Puerto Rico
13	25 Sep 2019 06:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	25 Sep 2019 12:00	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	25 Sep 2019 18:00	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	26 Sep 2019 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	26 Sep 2019 06:00	376	-		-	-	-	-	-	Venezuela, Colombia, Guyana, Suriname, Brazil

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Lorimers, Turks and Caicos Islands. This height is estimated for 26 Sep 2019 10:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	26 Sep 2019 10:30	Lorimers	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 12:00	Aubry	Haiti	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 12:00	Port-au-Prince	Haiti	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 12:00	Bellevue	Haiti	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 12:00	Arcahaie	Haiti	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Punta Santiago	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Playa Fortuna	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Playa de Humacao	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	San Vicente	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Naguabo	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Luquillo	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Ramos	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Estacion Botija	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	El Banco	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Margarita	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Campamento Punta Lima	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Daguao	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Aguas Claras	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Convento	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Fajardo	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Ceiba	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Isidra	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Luis M. Cintron	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Roosevelt Roads	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Las Croabas	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Hacienda Arcadia	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Isabel Segunda	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Santa Maria	Puerto Rico	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Augier	Haiti	0.2
	26 Sep 2019 06:00	El Cuatro	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:00	El Muertico	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:00	Tucacas	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:00	Los Corales	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:00	Las Delicias	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:00	Boca del Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:00	Boca de Yaracuy	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Boucan a Lait	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Petit-Goave	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Nan-Mangot	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Nan Boeuf	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Pestel	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Grande Cayemite	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Etroit	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Baraderes	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Mathon	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	L'Usine	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Miragoane	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:00	Kew	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:00	Bottle Creek	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:00	Conch Bar	Turks and Caicos Islands	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Trou des Hommes	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Trou Louis	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Abraham	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Platon Balais	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Etroits	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Anse-a-Veau	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Carrefour Lundi	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:00	Majors	The Bahamas	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:00	Browns	The Bahamas	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:00	Chesters	The Bahamas	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Clisan	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Jeremie	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Roseaux	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Pointe des Lataniers	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Nan Tida	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Evangeliste	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Gros Mangle	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	La Cayenne	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Barcadere Trompe	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Gonaives	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Au Source Nord	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	L'Homond	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Seringue	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Corail	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Saint-Marc	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Dugazon	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Baie-de-Henne	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Anse Rouge	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Bavaro	Dominican Republic	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Punta Cabo	Dominican Republic	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Cabo Engano	Dominican Republic	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Esperanza	Puerto Rico	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Vieques	Puerto Rico	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	Culebra	Puerto Rico	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:15	San Ildefonso	Puerto Rico	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	La Plateforme	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Fatgunt	Haiti	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:30	San Pedro de Coche	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:30	La Uva	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:30	Caimancito	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:30	Guamache	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 06:30	Ariota	Venezuela	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:45	Spring Point	The Bahamas	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Jauco	Cuba	0.1
	26 Sep 2019 11:30	Montecristo	Cuba	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.