Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23 in Madagascar from 18 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC to 24 Jan 2023 10:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23

in Madagascar

24 Jan 2023 10 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (24 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 19 Jan 2023 10:00 - 19 Jan 2023 16:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	201 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

201 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	95	4.1 million	No people	Madagascar
2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	106	4.4 million	No people	Madagascar
3	18 Jan 2023 16:00	116	1.6 million	No people	Madagascar
4	18 Jan 2023 22:00	127	5.3 million	No people	Madagascar
5	19 Jan 2023 04:00	116	4.8 million	No people	Madagascar
6	19 Jan 2023 10:00	106	2.7 million	No people	Madagascar
7	19 Jan 2023 16:00	74	3.8 million	No people	Madagascar
8	19 Jan 2023 22:00	74	3.4 million	No people	Madagascar
9	20 Jan 2023 04:00	53	3.1 million	No people	Madagascar
10	20 Jan 2023 10:00	84	3.3 million	No people	Madagascar
11	20 Jan 2023 16:00	95	2.9 million	No people	Madagascar
12	20 Jan 2023 22:00	53	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
13	21 Jan 2023 04:00	53	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
14	21 Jan 2023 10:00	42	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
15	21 Jan 2023 16:00	42	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
16	21 Jan 2023 22:00	42	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
17	22 Jan 2023 04:00	53	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
18	22 Jan 2023 16:00	63	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
19	22 Jan 2023 22:00	53	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
20	23 Jan 2023 04:00	53	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar
21	23 Jan 2023 10:00	179	2.6 million	No people	Madagascar
22	24 Jan 2023 04:00	179	2.7 million	No people	Madagascar
23	24 Jan 2023 10:00	201	2.5 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.9, 56
2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.7, 53.8
3	18 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-13.4, 52.8
4	18 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	1.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-13.5, 51.9
5	19 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	2.8 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-13.9, 51.1
6	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-14.6, 50.5
7	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	3.3 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-15.2, 49.7	Madagascar
8	19 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	2 million people	Overland Depression	56	-15.6, 49	Madagascar
9	20 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16.1, 48.3	Madagascar
10	20 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16.4, 47.6	Madagascar
11	20 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-17, 46.9	Madagascar
12	20 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-17.6, 46.5	Madagascar
13	21 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-17.9, 46.3	Madagascar
14	21 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-18.1, 46.1	Madagascar
15	21 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-18.4, 45.5	Madagascar
16	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-18.8, 44.9	Madagascar
17	22 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-19.2, 44.3	Madagascar
18	22 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Overland Depression	56	-19.7, 44.5	Madagascar
19	22 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-19.9, 44.9	Madagascar
20	23 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-20.2, 44.8	Madagascar
21	23 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-20.4, 44.4	Madagascar
22	24 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	170000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-20.1, 42.7
23	24 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-20, 42.5
23	24 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-19.9, 42.4
23	25 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-19.9, 42.3
23	25 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-20, 42.2
23	26 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-20.2, 42
23	26 Jan 2023 22:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-20.5, 41.6
23	27 Jan 2023 10:00	Category 1	148	no people	2800 people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-21.3, 40.9
23	27 Jan 2023 22:00	Category 2	169	no people	2300 people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-22.2, 40.2
23	28 Jan 2023 10:00	Category 3	201	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	176	-23.3, 39.8
23	28 Jan 2023 22:00	Category 3	190	no people	no people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	167	-24.5, 39.8
23	29 Jan 2023 10:00	Category 3	179	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	157	-25.7, 40.2

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.