Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23
in Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (19 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
19 Jan 2023 04:00 - 19 Jan 2023 16:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 116 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 169 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

Wind

116 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 18 Jan 2023 04:00 95 4.1 million No people Madagascar
Green 2 18 Jan 2023 10:00 106 4.4 million No people Madagascar
Green 3 18 Jan 2023 16:00 116 1.6 million No people Madagascar
Green 4 18 Jan 2023 22:00 127 5.3 million No people Madagascar
Green 5 19 Jan 2023 04:00 116 4.8 million No people Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Category
(WMO/RSMC) **
Max winds
(km/h)
(WMO/RSMC)
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 18 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -13.9, 56
GREEN
2 18 Jan 2023 10:00 Tropical storm 63 no people no people Tropical Depression 56 -13.7, 53.8
GREEN
3 18 Jan 2023 16:00 Tropical storm 95 no people no people Moderate Tropical Storm 83 -13.4, 52.8
GREEN
4 18 Jan 2023 22:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 1.3 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -13.5, 51.9
GREEN
5 19 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical storm 116 no people 2.8 million people Severe Tropical Storm 102 -14, 51.2
GREEN
5 19 Jan 2023 16:00 Tropical storm 84 no people 3.3 million people Moderate Tropical Storm 74 -15.1, 49.6 Madagascar
GREEN
5 20 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 3.2 million people Overland Depression 56 -15.8, 48.8 Madagascar
GREEN
5 20 Jan 2023 16:00 Tropical storm 63 no people 2.6 million people Overland Depression 56 -16.4, 48.3 Madagascar
GREEN
5 21 Jan 2023 04:00 Tropical depression 53 no people no people Overland Depression 46 -17.1, 47.9 Madagascar
**
Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar 4.7 million people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Antsiranana Madagascar 1.2 million people
Toamasina Madagascar 1.6 million people
Mahajanga Madagascar 1.8 million people
Antananarivo Madagascar 80000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Sambava Antsiranana Madagascar City 31000 people
Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
Vohemar Antsiranana Madagascar City -
Andapa Antsiranana Madagascar City 20000 people
Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
Ambanja Antsiranana Madagascar City 30000 people
Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Sambava SVB 6 Civ. Paved No 5900
Vohemar VOH 6 Civ. Paved No 4200
Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
Andapa ZWA 473 Civ. Paved No 4100
Doany DOA unknown 0
Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
Bealanana WBE 1120 0
Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
Ambanja IVA 11 Civ. Unpaved No 3100
Befandriana WBD 250 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
Antsohihy Ambalabe WAI 28 Civ. Paved No 4900
Anahidrano 60 0
Analalava HVA 105 Civ. Unpaved No 3900
Port Berge WPB 65 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Tsaratanana TTS 327 Civ. Unpaved No 4300
Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Andriamena WAD unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Sambava MGSVB Madagascar
Antataha MGANM Madagascar
Vohemar Madagascar
Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
Maromandia Madagascar
Saint Mary Island Madagascar
Analalava Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Sahamaloto Sahamaloto 1958
Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 Jan 2023 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (37 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 19 Jan 2023 04:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2023 15:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2023 15:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 11:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 11:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 11:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 11:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 10:00 Antongompatatra Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 10:00 Bemanevika Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 10:00 Antohamaro Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 12:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 14:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 13:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 12:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 09:00 Ampana Kanana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 10:00 Farahalana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 11:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 13:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 14:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 09:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 10:00 Sambava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 12:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 15:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 16:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 13:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 13:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 15:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 14:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 08:00 Ambanjsondriry Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 17:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2023 17:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1