Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CHENESO-23 in Madagascar from 18 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC to 20 Jan 2023 16:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23

in Madagascar

20 Jan 2023 16 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (24 Jan 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 19 Jan 2023 10:00 - 19 Jan 2023 16:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	95 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

95 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	95	4.1 million	No people	Madagascar
2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	106	4.4 million	No people	Madagascar
3	18 Jan 2023 16:00	116	1.6 million	No people	Madagascar
4	18 Jan 2023 22:00	127	5.3 million	No people	Madagascar
5	19 Jan 2023 04:00	116	4.8 million	No people	Madagascar
6	19 Jan 2023 10:00	106	2.7 million	No people	Madagascar
7	19 Jan 2023 16:00	74	3.8 million	No people	Madagascar
8	19 Jan 2023 22:00	74	3.4 million	No people	Madagascar
9	20 Jan 2023 04:00	53	3.1 million	No people	Madagascar
10	20 Jan 2023 10:00	84	3.3 million	No people	Madagascar
11	20 Jan 2023 16:00	95	2.9 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.9, 56
2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.7, 53.8
3	18 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-13.4, 52.8
4	18 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	1.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-13.5, 51.9
5	19 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	2.8 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-13.9, 51.1
6	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-14.6, 50.5
7	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	3.3 million people	Overland Depression	56	-15.2, 49.7	Madagascar
8	19 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	2 million people	Overland Depression	56	-15.6, 49.1	Madagascar
9	20 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16, 48.4	Madagascar
10	20 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16.5, 47.2	Madagascar
11	20 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16.7, 46.5	Madagascar
11	21 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-17.6, 45.3	Madagascar
11	21 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-18.8, 44.6	Madagascar
11	23 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-19.2, 43.9
11	23 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	210000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-19.1, 43.8
11	24 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	210000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-19, 43.6
11	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	190000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-19, 43.3
11	25 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	130000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-19.1, 43
11	25 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-19.3, 42.7

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	2.8 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mahajanga	Madagascar	1.3 million people
Toamasina	Madagascar	570000 people
Toliara	Madagascar	40000 people
Antsiranana	Madagascar	870000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mandritsara	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Mananara	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	41000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Sambava	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Vohemar	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Port Berge	WPB	65	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Anahidrano		60				0
Antsohihy Ambalabe	WAI	28	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Mandritsara	WMA	307	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3700
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Antsalova	WAQ	168	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3000
Maintirano	MXT	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Bealanana	WBE	1120				0
Mananara Nord	WMR	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Belo Sur Tsiribihina	BMD	47	Civ.	Paved	No	4400
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Doany	DOA	unknown				0
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Sambava	SVB	6	Civ.	Paved	No	5900
Vohemar	VOH	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Maintirano	MGMXT	Madagascar
Mananara	MGWMR	Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Sambava	MGSVB	Madagascar
Vohemar		Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Boanamary, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 24 Jan 2023 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (194 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 20 Jan 2023 16:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.4
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.4
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.4
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.4
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampasimaleotra	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Larde	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Sambava	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 09:00	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Carramali	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Coropoa	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 13:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 09:00	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 07:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 16:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 05:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 06:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Jan 2023 16:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.