Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELSA-21 in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe from 30 Jun 2021 21:00 UTC to 09 Jul 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21

in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe

04 Jul 2021 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Haiti
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (05 Jul 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	79 km/h	0.5 m	171 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	94 km/h	1.3 m	414 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 3 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Haiti	3,025

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	30 Jun 2021 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	30 Jun 2021 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	01 Jul 2021 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	01 Jul 2021 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jul 2021 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	02 Jul 2021 12:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados
7	03 Jul 2021 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	03 Jul 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Haiti
9	04 Jul 2021 00:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	Haiti

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Venezuela	397,798	+
	Cuba	31,818
	Haiti	281,866
	Nicaragua	15,824
	Colombia	225
	Costa Rica	28,965
	Venezuela	33,148
	Panama	5,949
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama	4,629,030	+
	United States	538,914
	Cuba	1,077,607
	Haiti	411,901
	Dominican Republic	2,192
	Honduras	627,271
	Guatemala	480
	El Salvador	396,645
	Nicaragua	790,030
	Colombia	4,236
	Costa Rica	582,370
	Venezuela	54,014
	Panama	143,364

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	30 Jun 2021 00:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
2	30 Jun 2021 12:00	332	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Honduras, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Panama
3	01 Jul 2021 00:00	171	Few people			-	-	-	-	Venezuela, Panama
4	01 Jul 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jul 2021 00:00	155	60 thousand			-	-	-	-	Venezuela
6	02 Jul 2021 12:00	107	-		-	-	-	-	-	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada
7	03 Jul 2021 00:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	03 Jul 2021 12:00	136	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama
9	04 Jul 2021 00:00	275	400 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.