Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 100400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 43.9N 68.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.07.2021 43.9N 68.4W WEAK
12UTC 10.07.2021 48.8N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.1N 100.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.07.2021 11.5N 101.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.07.2021 12.0N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2021 12.7N 105.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2021 13.3N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.07.2021 13.3N 109.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 9.7N 92.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.07.2021 9.7N 92.9W WEAK
12UTC 14.07.2021 10.3N 94.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2021 11.4N 96.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.07.2021 12.0N 99.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.07.2021 13.3N 101.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100400

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 092042
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep
convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that
a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those
reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC.
Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were
reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby
waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains
45 kt.

Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with
an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward
motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains
embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was
made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates
that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The
GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open
into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast.

It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of
Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and
again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT).
Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will
be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted
that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or
timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed
from the cyclone's center.

Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm
warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy
rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 092042
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
US THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S.
coast have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa
was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore
the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The
system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.

Surface observations during the past several hours indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by
Sunday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New
England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could
result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to
moderate river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 092038
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 69.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 091742
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS....

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 71.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of Long
Island and the coast of New England west of Watch Hill, Rhode
Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts
including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that Elsa has
lost its tropical characteristics and has become a post-tropical
cyclone. At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Elsa was located by surface and radar data over
southeastern Massachusetts near latitude 42.0 North, longitude
71.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near the coast of
southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon, and then move
offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The
system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
primarily to the east and southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow
site at Kalmus Beach near Hyannis, Massachusetts recently reported
a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100
km/h). An unofficial observing site near Falmouth, Massachusetts
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/) gusting to 49 mph (80
km/h). A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) has been observed at the
Nantucket Airport. NOAA buoy 44020 in Nantucket Sound measured a
sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface data is
999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions
of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-
afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of
rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today,
which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 091446
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

The extratropical transition of Elsa is well underway. A frontal
boundary located over southern New England nearly wraps into the
circulation center, and the primary area of cold cloud tops and
heavy rainfall has now shifted to the northwestern portion of the
cyclone. Elsa is expected to complete its extratropical transition
this afternoon. Buoy and surface observations indicate that the
cyclone's intensity has changed little since early this morning.
Based on those data, Elsa's peak winds and minimum pressure
remain 45 kt and 1000 mb for this advisory, respectively.

Elsa continues to move quickly northeastward or 045/27 kt. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating
northeastward over the next day or two as it remains embedded
within deep-layer southwesterly flow. After 48 hours, the system is
expected to slow before it dissipates over the north Atlantic
around day 3. The track guidance remains in good agreement, but has
shifted slightly southward after 24 hours and the NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly.

Little change in strength is anticipated in the short-term as Elsa
completes its extratropical transition. After that time, gradual
weakening is anticipated and the wind speed forecast calls for the
system to weaken below gale-force in a couple of days. The global
models show the post-tropical cyclone dissipating over the north
Atlantic by early next week, and the official forecast follows
suit.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves near southern and coastal New England today, heavy
rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions
of the warning area in Long Island and southern New England
through this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected over portions of
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 41.0N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 091446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 72.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by surface and radar data over eastern Long Island near
latitude 41.0 North, longitude 72.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the
northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa
will move near eastern Long Island and the coast of southern New
England through this afternoon, and then offshore the northeastern
United States coast by this evening. The system should move over
Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected today. Gradual
weakening is forecast to occur over the weekend. Elsa is forecast
to become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow site near Jones Beach, New York
recently reported a wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) and a WeatherFlow
site near Block Island Jetty observed a sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA
buoy 44025 is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions
of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-
afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of
rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today,
which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding.
Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 091444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING
CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 72.1W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 72.1W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.0N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 48.4N 60.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 52.2N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 56.5N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 60.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 72.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 091148
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 73.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sandy
Hook, New Jersey.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Elsa will move near or over eastern Long Island and the
coast of southern New England today, and then offshore the
northeastern United States coast by late this afternoon. The
system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today.
Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 44066 located about 85 miles (140 km)
east of Long Beach, New Jersey recently measured a peak one-minute
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread into the warning area
over the northeastern U.S. coast this morning and continue through
early afternoon. Elsa is likely to bring gusty winds to portions
of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a
post-tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and
coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river
flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 090844
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

Elsa has become better organized this early Friday morning as
evidenced by a tightly coiled convective band that wraps completely
around the low-level circulation center, along with Doppler radar
velocities of more than 80 kt detected between 3000-7000 ft.
Upper-level outflow has expanded in all directions except the
southwestern quadrant, and the GFS and ECMWF models have assessed
the vertical wind shear to only be 10 kt and 13 kt, respectively,
over the center. Wind gusts to 68 kt and 62 kt were recently
measured in Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, and Beach Haven, New Jersey,
respectively. However, radar data suggest that these wind gusts were
possibly associated with the passage of nearby tornadic circulations
and were not due to Elsa's larger wind field. The central pressure
of 1000 mb is based on a nearby pressure report of 1000.6 mb from
the Ludlam Bay, New Jersey, WeatherFlow site, but this value could
be conservative. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on
recent observations from offshore buoys.

The initial motion is estimated to be 045/27 kt. Elsa is forecast
by the latest global and regional models to continue accelerating
northeastward today through Saturday due to the system being
embedded within deep-layer southwesterly mid-latitude flow. Elsa
should move over southeastern New England today and over Atlantic
Canada late tonight and on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast lies
on top of the previous advisory track and is close to the middle of
the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Elsa will be moving over 22-deg-C and cooler sea-surface
temperatures by 6 hours and beyond, which should further hasten
the ongoing extratropical transition process. This transition is
expected to be completed in 18 hours or so when Elsa is forecast to
be located over Atlantic Canada.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves near Long Island and southern and coastal New
England today, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash
and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in portions of the southern New England states and New
York by late this morning and afternoon. Gusty winds are expected
over portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 39.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
12H 09/1800Z 42.2N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/0600Z 46.6N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1800Z 51.3N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 55.4N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1800Z 59.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 090837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...ELSA RACING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Little
Egg Inlet, New Jersey, including Delaware Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states early this morning,
and move near or over the northeastern United States by late
morning and this afternoon and tonight. The system should move over
Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is expected through today, and
Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 78
mph (126 km/h) was measured by a WeatherFlow site in Ludlam Bay,
New Jersey, while a wind gust to 71 mph was observed in Beach
Haven, New Jersey. These two wind reports appear to have been
associated with nearby tornadoes.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast early this morning. These winds will spread
northward in the warning area over the northeastern states from
late this morning into the afternoon.

RAINFALL: Across northern New Jersey, Long Island, and southern and
coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up
to 6 inches are possible through Friday, which could result in
considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river
flooding is also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Storm Elsa, please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through early afternoon
over parts of Long Island and southeastern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 090836
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE
EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE EGG INLET TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND
NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 74.3W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 74.3W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.2N 70.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.6N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.3N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 55.4N 45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 59.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 090547
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA TOWARD DELAWARE BAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 75.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LEWES DELAWARE
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Fenwick
Island, Delaware, including the Chesapeake Bay, Potomac River,
Albemarle Sound, and Pamlico Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island, Delaware to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 75.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states this morning and move
near or over the northeastern United States this afternoon and
tonight. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through today,
and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mostly southeast of the center. NOAA buoy 44009 near the mouth of
Delaware Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h),
gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches),
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast this morning. These winds will spread northward
in the warning area over the northeastern states later today.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible
through today, which could result in limited flash and urban
flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash
and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is
also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today along the
Mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 090235
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Elsa has become slightly better organized this evening.
Convection near the center of Elsa has deepened, and the surface
pressures have fallen a few mb since this afternoon based on
observations over eastern Virginia. Although there are no wind
reports above 40 kt during the past several hours, recent
Doppler velocity data shows stronger winds offshore of the
mid-Atlantic states, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.

It appears that the early stages of extratropical transition
have begun with Elsa, with almost all of the deep convection north
of the center. A shortwave moving out of the Great Lakes should
cause the storm to deepen on Friday but also expand in size,
resulting in the maximum winds staying about the same as they are
now. Elsa should transition into an extratropical cyclone within
24 hours due to the shortwave and cold waters south of New England,
and then gradually weaken over Atlantic Canada and northeast of
Newfoundland after it loses its baroclinic support. The new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and the consensus
of the global models.

The storm is moving faster to the northeast this evening and will
gradually accelerate northeastward during the next day or two due
to speedy mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern North America. Elsa
should move over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within
the next 12-36 hours. The model guidance remains tightly packed on
that solution, and the new official track forecast remains close to
the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the eastern mid-Atlantic overnight, heavy
rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy
rainfall across New England through Friday could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in portions of the southern New England states and New
York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic
Canada Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 37.6N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 090234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City,
North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa
will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday
night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mostly southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico
Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting
to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible
through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban
flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash
and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is
also expected.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the
Mid-Atlantic coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 090233
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SURF
CITY...NORTH CAROLINA TO OCRACOKE INLET...NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET...NORTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND
NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.5N 72.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.6N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.4N 59.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 54.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 58.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 76.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 082345
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM ELSA CONTINUES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River
Inlet, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa
will pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight, and move
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday
night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km),
well to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow weather station
on Alligator Bridge in Dare County, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the North Carolina coast and along the
mid-Atlantic coast later this evening. These winds will spread
northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by
Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this
evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through
late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 082056
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

A NOAA NOS observing site at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 41 kt, so Elsa's maximum winds
are now estimated to be 45 kt. A number of other observing sites in
the vicinity have also reported sustained tropical-storm-force
winds. Elsa's slight strengthening may be the result of baroclinic
forcing associated with an approaching short-wave trough. The
system's cloud tops have warmed somewhat during the day, but it is
still producing some very heavy rains.

Elsa's low-level center is a bit elongated from southwest to
northeast, but surface synoptic data indicate that it has moved into
northern North Carolina. The storm continues to gradually
accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is
040/18 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected over the next
1-2 days as the cyclone moves along with the mid-latitude
southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the
eastern United States and Canada. Elsa should move near or
over southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada within the next
24-48 hours. The official track forecast remains close to the
previous one and similar to the multi-model consensus, TVCA.

The global models suggest that not much additional strengthening is
likely. Simulated satellite imagery from these models show an
extratropical appearance in 24-36 hours so the official forecast
shows an extratropical transition by late Friday. This is also
supported by cyclone phase analyses of the model fields from
Florida State University.


Key Messages:

1.As Elsa moves from North Carolina to Virginia today and this
evening, heavy rainfall may result in limited flash and urban
flooding. Heavy rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England
through Friday could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions should continue along portions of the
North Carolina coast this afternoon and spread over the
mid-Atlantic coast later today or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the southern New England
states and New York by Friday. Gusty winds are expected over
portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 36.3N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 082056
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEADED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 78.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
continue to move over North Carolina this afternoon, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76
km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the
mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds
will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern
states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this
evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through
late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 082036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW
JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING
CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR INFORMATION ON WIND HAZARDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 78.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.7N 75.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 47.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.5N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 56.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 78.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 082034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEADED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Little River Inlet has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 78.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
continue to move over North Carolina today, pass near the eastern
mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. No significant change in strength is
expected through Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the North Carolina coast today, and along the
mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening. These winds
will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern
states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern North
Carolina into southeast Virginia and eastern Maryland through this
evening. The threat for a tornado or two will continue through
late tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 081758
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
continue to move over North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A NOAA-NOS weather station in Wrightsville Beach,
North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68
km/h) gusting to 50 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over
portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today, and
along the mid-Atlantic coast later this afternoon and evening.
These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the
northeastern states by Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 081458
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Surface synoptic observations and high-resolution satellite images
indicate that the center of the storm has moved into North Carolina.
WSR 88-D Doppler radar data and surface reports indicate that the
maximum winds are near 40 kt. These highest winds are likely
occurring in some of the stronger convective bands near the coast.

Elsa is gradually accelerating toward the northeast, and the
initial motion is about 040/17 kt. A faster northeastward motion
is expected over the next couple of days as the cyclone becomes
entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada.
Elsa should move near or over southeastern New England and Atlantic
Canada during the next 24-48 hours. The official track forecast
is basically an update of the previous one and continues to follow
the multi-model consensus.

Some slight intensification is possible within the next 24-36 hours
due to baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude short wave trough.
Around 36 hours, the simulated satellite imagery from the global
models depicts a cloud pattern resembling that of a frontal
cyclone. Moreover, the FSU phase analyses of the GFS fields shows
the system becoming extratropical at that time. This is also
reflected in the official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across North Carolina and Virginia today, heavy
rainfall may result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy
rainfall from the Mid-Atlantic into New England through Friday could
lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast today and the mid-Atlantic coast by this
afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the southern New England states and New York by Friday.
Gusty winds are expected over portions of Atlantic Canada Friday
night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 35.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 081456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 79.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
the North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by
this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 081455
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING
CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 80.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 79.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 081157
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS ELSA HEADS
NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 80.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South
Carolina has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the
Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 80.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while
the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Myrtle Beach
International Airport, South Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts this morning, and
along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These
winds will spread northward in the warning area over the
northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. Non-tropical gale
warnings are in effect for portions of the U. S. coast north of the
Tropical Storm Warning area, and gale conditions are expected in
this area late Friday and Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through
Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080910 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 33...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Corrected warning section

...CENTER OF ELSA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 81.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Great Egg Inlet,
New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and for the coast of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south
shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore. A
Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from New Haven, Connecticut
to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the
Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 81.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. The NOAA station
at Folly Island, South Carolina, recently reported sustained winds
of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast for the next few hours, along
the South Carolina coast this morning, along the North Carolina
coast later today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday and
Friday night. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for
portions of the U. S. coast north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, and gale conditions are expected in this area late Friday and
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through
Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 080910 CCA
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021

CORRECTED WARNING SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF GREAT EGG
INLET... NEW JERSEY TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...AND FOR THE COAST
OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NEW HAVEN...
CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING
CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND
NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 81.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 81.3W AT 08/0900Z...INLAND
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 82.0W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 81.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 080901
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Doppler radar and surface observation indicate that the center of
Elsa is moving into southern South Carolina at this time. The
organization of the storm has changed little during the past
several hours, with a complex of bands in the eastern semicircle.
The initial intensity is 35 kt, and these winds are occurring along
an area of the coast and coastal waters well southeast of the
center.

The initial motion is now 035/16. The track guidance is in good
agreement that Elsa should accelerate northeastward during the next
few days as it becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly
flow, with the track carrying the system across the Carolinas and
the mid-Atlantic states during the next 24 hours, then near or over
southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada. The new forecast
track is basically an update of the previous track, and it is very
close to the consensus models.

Rawinsonde data and GOES-16 RGB airmass imagery show an upper-level
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States to the west of
Elsa, and the global models forecast this system to follow the
cyclone northeastward and take on a negative tilt. This should
result in increasing upper-level divergence over Elsa, which in turn
should lead to some strengthening as the storm moves near or over
the east coast of the United States. The 00Z ECMWF model is not as
bullish on intensification as its previous run, but it and the 00Z
UKMET still call for strengthening, and even the weaker GFS
forecasts the favorable upper-air pattern. Based on this, the new
intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening than the
previous forecast.

Based on the new forecast track, the tropical storm warning has
been extended northward along the United States east coast to
Massachusetts. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for the
coastal areas to the north of the tropical storm warning due to the
likelihood that Elsa will become extratropical as it reaches that
area.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the Carolinas Thursday, heavy rainfall may
result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the
Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday and Friday could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina
starting later today and the mid-Atlantic by this afternoon or
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southern New England states and New York by Friday. Gale winds are
expected over the portions of the New Hampshire and Maine coasts by
late Friday or Friday night, and those conditions are possible over
portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 33.4N 81.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 81.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Great Egg Inlet,
New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, and for the coast of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south
shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore. A
Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from New Haven, Connecticut
to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island,
Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and the
Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 81.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some re-strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. The NOAA station
at Folly Island, South Carolina, recently reported sustained winds
of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast for the next few hours, along
the South Carolina coast this morning, along the North Carolina
coast later today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning
area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday and
Friday night. Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for
portions of the U. S. coast north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, and gale conditions are expected in this area late Friday and
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely through
Thursday, which may result in limited flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain
with isolated totals up to 6 inches on Thursday through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight into Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 080842
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC THU JUL 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF GREAT EGG
INLET...
NEW JERSEY TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...AND FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM NEW HAVEN...
CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING
CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING
CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 81.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 81.3W AT 08/0900Z...INLAND
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 82.0W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.9N 63.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 51.9N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 56.6N 44.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 81.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080553
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MOVING THROUGH EASTERN GEORGIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected this morning, followed by a faster
northeastward motion later today. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over Georgia this morning, over South Carolina and North
Carolina later today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by
tonight and move near or over the northeastern United States on
Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some
re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close
to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mostly southeast of the center near the coast. A few hours ago,
wind gusts of 75 to 80 mph (120 to 130 km/h) were reported from
Weatherflow stations near Tybee Island, Georgia, in a severe
thunderstorm in an outer rain band.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast for the next several hours,
along the South Carolina coast this morning, along the North
Carolina coast later today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by
this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are likely today, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from
late tonight through tonight are possible, which could lead
to limited flash and urban flooding.

From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches are possible today into Friday. This could
lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this morning from
southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 080259
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that Elsa is
maintaining its intensity. However, these winds aren't close to
the center but, rather, in a strong band of convection in the
eastern semicircle of the storm. The current wind speed is set to
40 kt in accordance with an earlier sustained wind report of 38 kt,
and radar velocities reduced to the surface that would support at
least 40 kt.

Some weakening is expected overnight while a significant portion of
Elsa's circulation remains over land. However by late Thursday,
more of the storm will be moving over water, and a fair number
of the models suggest re-intensification could take place.
It is a little puzzling why the ECMWF and UKMET models, however,
are showing a strengthening tropical storm close to the
mid-Atlantic states, especially without a significant trough
interaction or warm waters. I'm getting some deja vu in this case
after working Claudette from a few weeks ago, with those same
models also over-intensifying that storm. The GFS has been
relatively consistent in showing only a small intensification of
Elsa, and the NHC forecast will continue to be closer to that
model's relatively weaker solution.

The storm has turned north-northeastward tonight and is moving a
little faster, about 14 kt. Elsa should move northeastward at an
increasing forward speed during the next few days as it becomes
embedded within fast southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough. No significant changes were made to the previous track
forecast since guidance remains in good agreement. Elsa is likely
to become absorbed north of Newfoundland by another extratropical
low by day 4.

There is greater confidence tonight that some portion of North
Carolina and the mid-Atlantic coast will receive
tropical-storm force-winds, so the Tropical Storm Watch has been
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning in those areas. Areas to the
north remain less certain, and remain under a Tropical Storm Watch.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across southeastern Georgia into the Lowcountry of
South Carolina tonight, heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall, from North
Carolina across the mid-Atlantic and into New England Thursday and
Friday, could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina on
Thursday and the mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the southern New England states
and New York by Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 32.1N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 080258
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 82.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet
South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet New Jersey, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal
Potomac south of Cobb Island and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter
Beach.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound Georgia has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey.
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, pass near
the eastern mid-Atlantic states late Thursday and move near or
over the northeastern United States on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some
re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close
to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mostly southeast of the center near the coast.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight, along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday, along the North
Carolina coast on Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic coast by
Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
amounts up to 8 inches are likely tonight through Thursday, which
may result in considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from
late tonight through Thursday night are possible, which could lead
to limited flash and urban flooding.

From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches are possible Thursday into Friday. This could
lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from
southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 080257
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
SOUTH CAROLINA TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE
TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF
SLAUGHTER BEACH.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO GREAT EGG INLET...NEW
JERSEY.
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET...NEW JERSEY TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND
NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 82.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 82.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 82.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.1N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.1N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.4N 72.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 54.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 82.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 072349
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 82.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A
WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to
3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches.
Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest
Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and
isolated moderate flood.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern
Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 072057
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Surface synoptic data indicate that the center of Elsa has moved
into extreme southern Georgia and, assuming continued weakening
since earlier today, the maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt.
This may be a generous estimate of the current intensity since no
surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
been recently received. Elsa should weaken into a tropical
depression on Thursday. By early Friday, the dynamical models show
some restrengthening of the cyclone as it moves along the
Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, the simulated satellite imagery
from the global models at that time depict the system resembling a
frontal cyclone, so it is dubious as to whether Elsa will be
completely tropical in 48 hours. Due to the uncertainty as to when
extratropical transition will occur, tropical storm watches have
been issued for Long Island and portions of southern New England at
this time.

The initial motion is northward, or 010/12 kt. Elsa is forecast to
turn north-northeastward overnight as it moves around the
northwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge while
accelerating northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over
the eastern United States and Canada on Thursday. The official
forecast is about the same as the previous one and closely follows
the multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. Heavy
rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina,
and southeastern Virginia may result inconsiderable flash and urban
flooding across southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England
Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic
and southern New England states by Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 30.8N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 072056
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Long Island from East
Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from
Port Jefferson Harbor to the eastern tip along the north shore.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of southern
New England from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach,
Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard,
and Nantucket.

All warnings have been discontinued along the Florida Gulf coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
shore
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over
land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Moody Air Force Base near Valdosta, Georgia, has
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and
along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to
3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches.
Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest
Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and
isolated moderate flood.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.

Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern
Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 072056
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE
BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S
VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW
JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH
* LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH
SHORE
* NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS
INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND
NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.6N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.8N 75.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 42.0N 70.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 071753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 83.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued south of the Suwannee River,
Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected through
tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast
of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...1
to 3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of
Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 071503 CCA
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 30...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

Corrected Taylor County to Dixie County in the first paragraph.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has made several fixes in
Elsa this morning, and recent observations from the plane indicated
that the center is now on the coast making landfall. The aircraft
found that the central pressure remained about steady with maximum
winds of 55 kts up to landfall. Sustained tropical-storm-force
winds are being reported from observing sites within the warning
area, with an unofficial report of a sustained wind of 54 kt gusting
to 62 kt at Horseshoe Beach in Dixie County, Florida during the
past half hour.

Center fixes indicate that Elsa has continued northward, with a
motion estimate of 360/12 kt. Elsa should turn toward the
north-northeast today as it moves along the northwestern periphery
of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. On Thursday, the cyclone should
begin to accelerate northeastward on the southeast side of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada.
The official track forecast is on top of the latest multi-model
consensus, TVCA, solution. This is only slightly to left of the
previous NHC track, and shows the center moving near the
northeastern U.S. coast within the next 48 hours.

Weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land during the
next 36 hours or so, and the official intensity forecast closely
resembles the decay-SHIPS guidance. Since winds of 35 kt are
possible near the coast well to the southeast of the center within
the next day or two, a tropical storm warning is in effect for a
portion of the southeast U.S. coast. Some slight reintensification
is shown when the center moves near the coast in 48-60 hours.
However, since the water temperatures are rather cool near the
northeast coast, strengthening will probably be influenced by
baroclinic forcing associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough. The
system will likely become extratropical by 72 hours if not sooner
while it moves through Atlantic Canada.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula
today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across southeast Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast
and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and
urban flooding.

2. There is still a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions wile continue today across portions of
the northeast Gulf coast today within the warning area.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states by
Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 29.9N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR COAST
60H 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 071500
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has made several fixes in
Elsa this morning, and recent observations from the plane indicated
that the center is now on the coast making landfall. The aircraft
found that the central pressure remained about steady with maximum
winds of 55 kts up to landfall. Sustained tropical-storm-force
winds are being reported from observing sites within the warning
area, with an unofficial report of a sustained wind of 54 kt gusting
to 62 kt at Horseshoe Beach in Taylor County, Florida during the
past half hour.

Center fixes indicate that Elsa has continued northward, with a
motion estimate of 360/12 kt. Elsa should turn toward the
north-northeast today as it moves along the northwestern periphery
of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. On Thursday, the cyclone should
begin to accelerate northeastward on the southeast side of a broad
mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States and Canada.
The official track forecast is on top of the latest multi-model
consensus, TVCA, solution. This is only slightly to left of the
previous NHC track, and shows the center moving near the
northeastern U.S. coast within the next 48 hours.

Weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land during the
next 36 hours or so, and the official intensity forecast closely
resembles the decay-SHIPS guidance. Since winds of 35 kt are
possible near the coast well to the southeast of the center within
the next day or two, a tropical storm warning is in effect for a
portion of the southeast U.S. coast. Some slight reintensification
is shown when the center moves near the coast in 48-60 hours.
However, since the water temperatures are rather cool near the
northeast coast, strengthening will probably be influenced by
baroclinic forcing associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough. The
system will likely become extratropical by 72 hours if not sooner
while it moves through Atlantic Canada.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula
today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across southeast Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast
and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and
urban flooding.

2. There is still a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions wile continue today across portions of
the northeast Gulf coast today within the warning area.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states by
Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 29.9N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR COAST
60H 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST
72H 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 071459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA MAKING LANDFALL IN TAYLOR COUNTY ALONG THE
NORTH FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM WSW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings south of Aripeka, Florida, have been discontinued.

The hurricane warning along the west coast of Florida has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Gulf coast has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including the
Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island, and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to the Aucilla River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Aripeka to Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move inland into
Florida this afternoon. The storm should then move across the
southeastern and mid-Atlantic United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as Elsa moves further inland this
afternoon into tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An unofficial weather station at Horseshoe Beach,
Florida recently measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h)
gusting to 71 mph (114 km/h). Earlier, a C-MAN station at Cedar
Key, Florida measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) gusting
to 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast
of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aripeka, FL to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Aripeka, FL including Tampa Bay...1 to
3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3
to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches
today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding,
along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3
inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday
night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of
Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 071459
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF ARIPEKA...FLORIDA...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND...AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY
HOOK...NEW JERSEY
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH
OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 95SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 83.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 071156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued
south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from the Middle of Longboat Key to the
Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to the Middle
of Longboat Key
* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to
Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast,
southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should
monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS
Doppler radars near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 83.6 West. Elsa
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will make landfall along the north
Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon. The
storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic
United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely until landfall later
today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A C-MAN station at Cedar Key, Florida, recently
measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (66
km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur in the hurricane
warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue
along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area
along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic states
by Thursday night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Aucilla River...3 to 5 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...2
to 4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...1 to 3 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to
6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today,
which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west-central to
north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue
later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the west
coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 070906
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time
earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite
imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This
decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air
entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and
surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to
near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly
generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data.

After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of
360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until
landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula.
Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected
by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves
into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has
shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new
forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track
lies a little to the right of the various consensus models.

While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there
is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived
re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane
warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of
Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as
it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to
become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes
in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the
guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.


Key Messages:

1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula
today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and
isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast
and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and
urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several
hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will
continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state
within the warning area through today.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day
or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by
Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 070855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Florida has been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning south of Chassahowitzka to
Egmont Key.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Englewood.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the coasts of North
Carolina and Virginia from Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague,
Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River,
including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to Englewood
* West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to
Ochlockonee River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague,
Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic coast,
southeastern New England, and the Canadian Maritimes should
monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general
northward motion is expected to continue through this afternoon. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected late this afternoon or
tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the
west coast of Florida this morning, then make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast by late this morning or this afternoon.
The storm should then move across the southeastern and mid-Atlantic
United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until
landfall later today. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane warning
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread northward across the western Florida Peninsula into the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning area today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina
coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic states by Thursday
night and Friday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:

Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to
6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today,
which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban
flooding.

Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across west-central to
north Florida into this afternoon. The tornado threat will continue
later today through tonight across southeast Georgia and eastern
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 070855
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO
EGMONT KEY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA FROM DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE...
VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CHASSAHOWITZKA TO THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ENGLEWOOD
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER
TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE...
VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS...THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 83.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 83.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 83.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 070548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Bonita
Beach, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River,
including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North
Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA
Doppler weather radars, and surface observations near latitude
27.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is moving toward just west of
due north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a general northward motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday
morning and then move across the southeastern United States through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until
landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves
inland by late Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg, Florida,
recently reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations
is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). A University of South Florida buoy
recently reported a pressure of 1005.6 mb (29.69 inches) as the
center of Elsa passed nearby.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into
west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning
areas tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late Wednesday and along the South Carolina coast Wednesday
night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western
and central Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on
Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 070257
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the
development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled
off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC,
WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average
Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were
co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher
reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds.
Elsa's center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023
around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters
elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west
side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured
by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt.
However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the
strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial
intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops
around the ragged eye feature later tonight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue
tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the
northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward
the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some
acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught
up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The
official track forecast lies between the simple and
corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track
forecast.

Elsa's inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the
vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data,
which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations
are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa's ragged eye feature along
with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming
nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow
convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air
just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from
occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to
increased frictional effects and Elsa's small size. The pressure
gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to
increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system
over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to
tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North
Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus
intensity models HCCA and IVCN.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate
river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread
northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area
through Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 070246
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound, Georgia, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Little River
Inlet, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Chokoloskee, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Chokoloskee to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Duck, North
Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Elsa
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast to make
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late Wednesday
morning and then move across the southeastern United States through
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in the intensity are possible until
landfall occurs on Tuesday. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves
inland by late Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km). Sarasota Airport recently reported a sustained wind
of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and
along the South Carolina coast Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across the western
and central Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on
Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 070246
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC WED JUL 07 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND...GEORGIA...TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER
INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
CHOKOLOSKEE...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK...NORTH
CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 062358 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

Corrected to add hurricane wind radii

...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Key West
to the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.6 North, longitude
83.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed
by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast
to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late
Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United
States through Thursday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible
overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (32 km) from
the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km) from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa,
recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h)
gusting to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was
recently measured on North Captiva Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are
possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday
night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 062341
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA REGAINS HURRICANE STATUS SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys from Key West
to the Seven Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.6 North, longitude
83.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 10 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A
turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed
by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida later tonight and early Wednesday morning. Elsa is forecast
to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast by late
Wednesday morning and then move across the southeastern United
States through Thursday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Tampa Bay indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional slight strengthening will be possible
overnight. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42013, located due north of Elsa, recently
measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) gusting
to 47 mph (76 km/h). A wind gust to 43 mph (69 mph) was recently
measured on North Captiva Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in
the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the
Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas tonight and early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late Wednesday and are
possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday
night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 062120 CCA
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021

CORRECTED ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA
FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
* COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARYS RIVER TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH
CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 83.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 062039
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little
while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the
storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge
of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of
the circulation continues to lack significant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along
with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the
cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However
this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some
slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a
hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt. A continued northward
track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical
cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast
along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late
tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast
over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern
United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of
the model consensus tracks.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate
river flooding. Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along
the west coast of the state within the warning area through
Wednesday morning.

4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of
southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 062038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Georgia
from the Mouth of St. Marys River to Altamaha Sound.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Seven
Mile Bridge has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry
Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a generally
northward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast Wednesday morning and then move across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane before making
landfall. Weakening will begin after Elsa moves inland by late
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42023 recently measured a peak 1-minute
sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) gusting to 78 mph (126 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the warning areas
tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast
by late Wednesday and are possible in the watch area in Georgia and
South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, outer bands south
of Elsa will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.
Isolated storm totals of 15 inches are expected, which will maintain
areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides through tonight.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 9 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
considerable isolated flash and urban flooding along with minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the
Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 062037
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF GEORGIA
FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
* COAST OF GEORGIA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH
CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 83.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 83.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.3N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N 78.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.4N 75.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 48.5N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 061804
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Special Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

This is a special advisory to issue a Hurricane Warning for a
portion of the Florida Gulf coast. Recent observations from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Elsa are now near 60 kt. However, the aircraft
has not yet had a chance to sample the northeastern quadrant, so it
is possible that higher winds exist. Although the environment is
not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a
slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a
hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.

Aside from the small adjustments to the 12- and 24-intensity
forecasts to reflect the revised current intensity estimate, no
other changes have been made to the official forecast. The NHC
track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the 1500 UTC
advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western
Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions
of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread
northward along much of the west coast of the state through
Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and
portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1800Z 25.4N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 061803
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Special Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued along the west coast of Florida
from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a generally
northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today through tonight. Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast on Wednesday and then move across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts, and Elsa is forecast to become a hurricane
before making landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin after Elsa
moves inland by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the Florida Gulf coast beginning this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region in the Tropical Storm
Warning area tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South
Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding..

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 061800
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1800 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 83.0W AT 06/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 83.0W AT 06/1800Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 061745
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
145 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...RECON FINDS ELSA STRONGER...

Recent Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that the Elsa has strengthened and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the intermediate
advisory to reflect this change and to issue a hurricane warning for
a portion of the west coast of Florida.


SUMMARY OF 145 PM EDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 061446
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

Elsa's overall cloud pattern has changed little in organization
since earlier today. There continues to be minimal shower and
thunderstorm activity over the western semicircle of the
circulation, with some bursting of deep convection near and east of
the estimated center. A slightly-elevated observing site on Sand
Key, near Key West Florida, recently reported a peak 1-minute wind
of 49 kt with a gust to 56 kt. This supports the current intensity
estimate of 50 kt. Recent WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the Key
West radar suggest that the storm could be a little stronger than
that. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm has
been delayed due to bad weather at the Keesler base, but is
rescheduled to investigate Elsa in a few hours. This flight should
provide updated information on the intensity of the system.

Recently, the storm has been moving a little slower toward the
north-northwest and the initial motion is about 340/9 kt. Elsa
should move generally northward today and tonight between the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge and an area of low
pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A gradual
turn toward the north-northeast should occur on Wednesday as the
system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.
Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward
ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada.
This will take the system across the southeastern United States
within the next couple of days, near the coast of New England in
about 3 days and near or over Atlantic Canada in 4 days or so. The
official forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and,
again, very close to the model consensus.

The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for
strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level
air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the
east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the
system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast
continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it
approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high
end of the numerical intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western
Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions
of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across
portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward
along much of the west coast of the state through Wednesday morning,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and
portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 24.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 061443
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WEST-CENTRAL
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle
from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida, has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening
situation. Persons located within these areas should take all
necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water
and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 82.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a
generally northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn
toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a
faster northeastward by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move
near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today
through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make
landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move
across the southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be
near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida.
Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently
measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) gusting
to 64 mph (104 km/h). The Key West International Airport also
recently measured a peak sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) gusting
to 59 mph (95 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central
Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday,
where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina
Wednesday night and early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding..

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 061438
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA...HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 82.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 061146
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 82.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 82.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn
toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to
pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over
portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight.
On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the
north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the
southeastern United States through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa
could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in
Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently
measured a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The Key West
International Airport also recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph
(77 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida
Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into
west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and
early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and
early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 060848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

Elsa is now located over the Florida Straits, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts occurring across the Lower and
Middle Keys. Doppler radar data and satellite images indicate that
the core of Elsa is fairly small and has maximum winds of around 50
kt. The outer rainbands associated with Elsa are spreading northward
across southern Florida, and a cluster of deep convection has been
lingering over portions of central and western Cuba. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa later this morning, and
the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the
storm's intensity and structure.

Elsa is moving to the north-northwest at about 10 kt on the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge that is located over the central
Atlantic. The storm should turn northward later today as it moves
in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the
south-central U.S. This motion should take the core of Elsa
parallel to and likely just offshore of the west coast of Florida
through tonight. After that time, a slight turn to the
north-northeast is forecast as another trough moves across the
north-central U.S. This slight change in heading should bring Elsa
inland across the Big Bend region of Florida by early Wednesday and
then across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday night
through early Friday. Thereafter, the storm is expected to
accelerate and move northeastward off the mid-Atlantic and New
England coasts. The NHC track forecast is basically unchanged from
the previous one and lies close to the model consensus aid TVCA.

Now that Elsa is gradually pulling away from Cuba, it will have an
opportunity to strengthen. However, the environmental conditions
are only marginal for the storm to do so. Dry air on the western
side of the cyclone and some westerly shear should prevent rapid
intensification, but the small cyclone will likely strengthen slowly
before it moves inland over the Big Bend of Florida. The GFS model
shows Elsa deepening by 5-10 mb before landfall, and the ECMWF shows
even greater pressure falls. Based on these models, the intensity
forecast is nudged upward and now shows Elsa just below hurricane
force before landfall in Florida. After Elsa moves inland, steady
weakening is forecast, but the system is expected to restrengthen
over the western Atlantic as it transitions into an extratropical
cyclone.

Based on this new forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a
portion of the west-central and Big Bend Florida coast. In addition,
it should be noted that much of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula is expected to see wind, rain, and surge impacts since
that region will be on Elsa's east side. A Tropical Storm Watch
has also been issued for the Georgia coast and portions of the
South Carolina coast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western Florida
Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and
urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of
Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia,
South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result
in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and
urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of
South Carolina.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.

3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the
west-central and Big Bend coast of Florida, where hurricane
conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Keys
and much of the west coast of the state, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Georgia coast and
portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 25.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0600Z 32.9N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0600Z 38.5N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/0600Z 45.9N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z 54.7N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 060848
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 82.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west-central and Big Bend
coast of Florida from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Georgia coast and
portions of the South Carolina coast from the Mouth of St. Marys
River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla
River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida
* Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast
should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 82.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a
turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near
the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of
the west coast of Florida later today and continuing into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa
could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in
Florida. Weakening is expected after it moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently
measured a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida
Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into
west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and
early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and
early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across
the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday
across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas
and far southeast Virginia on Thursday.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 060847
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BIG BEND
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GEORGIA COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARYS
RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND
ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 82.4W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 82.4W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 82.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.7N 82.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.4N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.5N 74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 82.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 060534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA NOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 82.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River,
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia, the Carolinas, and the mid-Atlantic
coast should monitor the progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by radar from Key West, Florida near latitude 23.9 North,
longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near
12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A
north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Elsa will pass near the Florida Keys this morning,
and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later
today and continuing into Wednesday.

Satellite data and NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight
before Elsa moves inland over Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
measured at the Key West International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida
Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
into the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late tonight.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through this morning, rainfall of
5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and
mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands this morning, additional
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with storm total rainfall to 5 inches is
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida this
morning and across the Florida Peninsula later today.

SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida
Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 82.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.07.2021 0 22.5N 82.2W 1011 30
1200UTC 06.07.2021 12 24.6N 83.2W 1009 38
0000UTC 07.07.2021 24 26.8N 83.4W 1005 39
1200UTC 07.07.2021 36 29.2N 83.2W 1005 38
0000UTC 08.07.2021 48 31.7N 82.7W 1003 30
1200UTC 08.07.2021 60 33.8N 80.6W 1004 37
0000UTC 09.07.2021 72 36.3N 77.3W 1002 36
1200UTC 09.07.2021 84 38.9N 72.4W 997 42
0000UTC 10.07.2021 96 42.5N 66.8W 996 45
1200UTC 10.07.2021 108 47.4N 59.9W 998 38
0000UTC 11.07.2021 120 53.9N 49.9W 996 33
1200UTC 11.07.2021 132 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060400

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 82.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.07.2021 22.5N 82.2W WEAK
12UTC 06.07.2021 24.6N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2021 26.8N 83.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.07.2021 29.2N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2021 31.7N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2021 33.8N 80.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2021 36.3N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2021 38.9N 72.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2021 42.5N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2021 47.4N 59.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2021 53.9N 49.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2021 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060400

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 060250
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface
observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water,
having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC.
Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate
values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent
surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying
just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured
reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data,
the intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past
three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous
track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving
north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to
central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge
over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then
north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late
Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern
United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly
eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad
east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models.

Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours,
with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly
reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida
peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a
small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has
been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient -- a
condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in
about 36 hours -- the new official intensity forecast remains
similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55
kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC
forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will
be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the
intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning
is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the
cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity
forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa
approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding
possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late
week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and
southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward
across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast
through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.5N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 060250
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA BACK OVER WATER BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE DRY
TORTUGAS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Villa Clara.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn
toward the north on Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across
the Florida Straits tonight and pass near the Florida Keys early
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the
west coast of Florida by late Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West and an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida
Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to
10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across
the Cayman Islands tonight, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches
with storm total rainfall to 5 inches is expected. This rain may
lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the
Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up
to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 060250
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND VILLA CLARA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND
ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 82.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 82.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 82.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 052351
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA PASSING JUST EAST OF HAVANA CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara,
Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by radars from Key West, Florida, and Havana, Cuba, near
latitude 22.9 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the
northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on Tuesday, and a turn toward the north on Tuesday night. A
north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Elsa should emerge off the coast western Cuba during
the next hour or so, move into the Florida Straits this evening, and
pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to
move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida by late
Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA Doppler weather radar in Key West indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts
over water. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over
the Straits of Florida tonight and over the Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route
to investigate Elsa once the storm moves back over water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida
Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida
Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8
inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash
and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 052047
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Satellite and radar imagery along with surface synoptic
observations indicate that the tropical cyclone moved inland over
west-central Cuba around 1800 UTC, accompanied by very heavy rains.
Assuming that some weakening has occurred due to the influence of
land, the advisory intensity is set to 45 kt. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Elsa this
evening after the center moves into the Florida Straits and will
provide a better assessment of the system's intensity.

The storm appears to be continuing on its northwestward track and
the initial motion estimate is 315/12 kt. There are no changes to
the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Elsa
should move between the western portion of a mid-level subtropical
ridge extending westward from the Atlantic and a broad low pressure
area near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast for the next couple
of days. Later in the forecast period, the system is likely to
accelerate northeastward and move from the eastern United States
to near Atlantic Canada. The NHC track forecast over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is practically identical to the one from the
previous advisory, and a little to the left of the previous one
over the eastern United States and the Atlantic. This is in good
agreement with the now tightly-clustered track model guidance.

Some restrengthening of the cyclone is likely after it moves into
the Gulf of Mexico, but vertical shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf is likely to limit
intensification. The official intensity forecast is slightly above
the latest model consensus, IVCN. Around 96 hours, the global
models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so
the forecast shows extratropical transition at that time.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba through
tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over
Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and
southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida.
Mid- to late-week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina,
North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated
flash and urban flooding.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday,
and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward
across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast
through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 81.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 052046
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINS...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 81.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast
from Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River including Tampa
Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the Florida west coast has been
extended northward and westward to the Ochlockonee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of Craig Key
and Florida Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara,
Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on
Tuesday night. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin
on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to
continue to move over western Cuba for the next few hours,
move into the Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the
Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or
over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast after
Elsa moves over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
central and western Cuba for the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida
Keys beginning tonight and along the Florida west coast beginning
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend region within the Tropical
Storm Warning area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning
late Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
winds within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to
4 ft
Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected.
This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands tonight, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and
impacts this week:

Across the Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida
Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8
inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.

Across the rest of Florida into southeast Georgia and the Low
Country of South Carolina...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum
totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches
Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba tonight. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 052046
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC MON JUL 05 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF CRAIG KEY
AND FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA CLARA...
MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 81.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.1N 82.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 83.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.8N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 81.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051743
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WHILE BRINGING
FLOODING RAINS...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 81.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move
over west-central Cuba for the next several hours, move into the
Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the
west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the
center moves over land. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa
moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central
and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the
Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning
Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4
ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will
result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the
Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This
rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the
Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2
to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are
expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected
to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to
5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 051459
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa while
it approaches the south coast of Cuba this morning. Based on
SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held
at 55 kt for this advisory. A center dropsonde from the plane
measured 1009 mb with 26 kt at the surface, so the minimum central
pressure estimate is 1006 mb, indicating no significant change since
yesterday. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA plane showed that
there is an eastward tilt of the center with height, so the storm
continues to have some vertical alignment issues. Satellite imagery
continues to depict convective banding features over the eastern
portion of the circulation, with the center located near the western
edge of the main cloud mass.

Elsa continues its northwestward track with an initial motion
estimate of 310/12 kt. Over the next 2-3 days, the tropical
cyclone should move between a subtropical ridge over the southwest
North Atlantic and a mid-level low over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. In the latter part of the forecast period, Elsa is
forecast to accelerate northeastward into the westerlies off the
eastern United States coast and into the Atlantic, where it should
lose its tropical characteristics in the vicinity of Nova Scotia.

Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the official track track forecast
has been nudged slightly westward toward the model consensus aids,
HCCA and TVCA, but not as far west as that guidance. The GFS model
track lies a little east of the latest NHC track.

Some slight weakening is likely while Elsa crosses west-central Cuba
today. Restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be
limited by moderate westerly shear associated with a broad
upper-level trough over the Gulf. The official intensity forecast
is mostly higher than the numerical model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa
approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy
rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result
in isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba
today.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through
Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A
Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge
impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.5N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 81.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
extended northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay.

The Storm Surge Watch along the west coast of Florida has
been extended northward to the Ochlockonee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle
has been extended westward to Indian Pass, Florida.

The government of Cuba has discontinued all watches and warnings
for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

The government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the
Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas to a Tropical Storm
Warning, and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
province of Artemisa.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 81.2 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) , and this
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa
is expected to move across central and western Cuba later today and
pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to
move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected while the center moves over land.
Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central
and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the
Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning
Tuesday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4
ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will
result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the
Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This
rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the
Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2
to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are
expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected
to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to
5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 051455
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC MON JUL 05 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...VILLA
CLARA...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN COASTAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 81.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 80.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.3N 83.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 44.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 81.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051147
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA NEARING LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla
River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after
the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.4
North, longitude 80.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to
continue today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to move across
central and western Cuba later today and pass near the Florida
Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over
portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba
later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over
land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and
southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning,
and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida
beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will
result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the
Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This
rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected
across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which
may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected
to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5
inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash
and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida
tonight into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050832
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

Elsa appears to be holding steady in strength while moving just
south of central Cuba. Radar data from Cuba and satellite images
show a persistent area of deep convection over the center and some
banding features, especially on the south side of the circulation.
An ASCAT pass from around 0130Z indicated that Elsa was a compact
system with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to a region
within about 60 n mi east of the center. Peak winds in the pass were
around 50 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and given the small size
of the cyclone and somewhat course resolution of the ASCAT data, it
seems very reasonable that Elsa has an initial intensity of around
55 kt. This intensity estimate is also in line with the latest
Dvorak classifications. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be
investigating Elsa again shortly, and the data the plane collects
will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and wind field.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 12 kt on the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over the
central Atlantic. A gradual turn to the north is expected over the
next day or two as Elsa moves in the flow between the ridge and a
mid- to upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This
steering pattern should take the core of Elsa across central or
western Cuba later this morning, near the Lower Florida Keys tonight
or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of
Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the
models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern
Florida, but given the expected parallel motion to the coast, much
of the west coast of the state will likely see impacts from Elsa on
Tuesday and into Wednesday. After Elsa clears Florida, it is
expected to move faster north-northeastward across coastal Georgia
and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday before moving over the
western Atlantic. The new track forecast is just a little to the
left of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.

Given the overall favorable environmental conditions, Elsa could
strengthen a little before it reaches the coast of Cuba later this
morning. Some weakening is expected due to the land interaction
with Cuba, but most of the model guidance suggests that Elsa could
restrengthen slightly before it moves inland over Florida.
Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate
wind shear. However, it should be noted that given the expected
track, much of the west coast of Florida will be on the east side of
Elsa, which is where the strongest winds, highest surge, and
heaviest rains are expected to be. Gradual weakening is forecast
while Elsa moves across portions of the southeast U.S., but some
restrengthening is possible again when the storm moves over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one while Elsa is expected to be over the Gulf of
Mexico, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa
approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and coastal Georgia
Monday through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy
rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result in
isolated flash and urban flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba
today. Hurricane conditions are also possible along the south coast
this morning.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys and southwestern Florida tonight and Tuesday, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch and
a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for much of the west coast of
Florida.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge
impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and
Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 79.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Flamingo to Englewood, Florida has
been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch on the west coast of Florida has been
extended northward from Anclote River to Aucilla River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Englewood northward to the Aucilla
River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after
the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 79.9 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected
to move across central and western Cuba later today and pass near
the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near
or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba
later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over
land. Slight restrengthening is forecast after Elsa moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central and western Cuba today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in the Florida Keys and
southwestern Florida beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands this morning,
and in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area along the west coast of Florida
beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will
result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the
Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This
rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are expected
across Florida and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, which
may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected
to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to 5
inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash
and urban flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across south Florida
tonight into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050831
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC MON JUL 05 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD...FLORIDA HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER
THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT
MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 79.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.2N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 83.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.1N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.5N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 36.8N 74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 42.0N 64.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 79.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050533
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021

...ELSA JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA
LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 79.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote
River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after
the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula, coastal Georgia and
the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 79.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected
to move across central and western Cuba later today and head toward
the Florida Straits tonight, and pass near the Florida Keys early
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the
west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before Elsa moves over Cuba
later today, followed by some weakening while the center moves over
land. Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida Keys by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
in the Cayman Islands this morning, and in the upper Florida Keys by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the west coast of Florida beginning early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 ft

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected
through this morning. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is
expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia today through
Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor
river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to
receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches
Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash
flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern
Florida this afternoon into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050258
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Similar to this time last night, Elsa has undergone another
convective bursting pattern, except that tonight this has translated
into at least some slight strengthening. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone this evening has
found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and reliable SFMR
surface winds of about 55 kt. Although there have been SFMR winds of
60 kt or more reported northeast and north of the center, those
values appear to be contaminated by shoaling and/or breaking waves
owing to the shallow water flowing in and around the offshore Cayo
Anclitas and Cayo Pingues archipelagos. The estimated center
pressure of 1004 mb based on dropsonde data also does a higher
intensity of 60 kt. Therefore, based on the most reliable data, the
intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no
significant change to the previous few track forecasts and synoptic
reasonings. Elsa is expected to move northwestward and then
northward around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical
ridge during the next 3 days, followed by acceleration toward the
northeast on days 4 and 5 as the cyclone moves near the southeast
U.S. coast and then over the northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC
track forecast is basically just an update and extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly
packed corrected consensus model HCCA and the simple consensus
models TVCA and GFEX.

Cuban radar data from Pilan and Camaguey have occasionally revealed
an eye-like feature in the low -and mid-levels of the cyclone where
cloud top temperatures have been colder than -80C and also where
significant lightning activity has been occurring. Given that the
circulation centers have become better aligned and the upper-level
outflow pattern is well-established and steadily improving, some
additional strengthening during the next 12 h is forecast, which
calls for Elsa to be near hurricane strength before landfall occurs
along the south-central coast of Cuba tomorrow. Over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday, some restrengthening is
forecast after Elsa clears Cuba, but southwesterly vertical wind
shear is expected to hinder the intensification process. The
official intensity forecast remains on the high side of the
numerical model guidance, and follows a blend of the HCCA intensity
consensus model, and the LGEM and and Decay-SHIPS
statistical-dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica
tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides
will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and
Cuba tonight into Monday resulting in significant flooding and
mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy
rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South
Carolina may result in isolated flash flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern
Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread
into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.

3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for
portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical
storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning
as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula
Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the
Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.6N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050255
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LANDFALL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAYO LARGO CUBA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Granma and Las Tunas, and the Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued for the provinces of Las Tunas,
Granma, Holquin, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Cienfuegos and Matanzas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote
River

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. The hurricane conditions are expected to begin shortly after
the first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars
from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.6 North, longitude
79.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach south-central
Cuba late tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across
central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on
Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then
forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba,
followed by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight
restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida
Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas in the Cayman Islands tonight, and in the upper Florida
Keys by Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the west coast of Florida beginning Monday
night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, an additional 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches are expected
through tonight. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba tonight into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands tonight into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible across Florida and Coastal Georgia Monday through
Wednesday, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor
river flooding. Coastal portions of South Carolina are expected to
receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts to 5 inches
Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated flash
flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern
Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida
Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050255
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC MON JUL 05 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA AND LAS TUNAS AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS,
GRANMA, HOLGUIN, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, AND GUANTANAMO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIENFUEGOS AND MATANZAS .

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE
RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS
THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 79.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 79.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 82.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.1N 82.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N 83.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.2N 82.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 41.0N 66.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 042359
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...ELSA MOVING AWAY FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the
Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Santiago de Cuba.

The Government of Jamaica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Jamaica.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote
River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and radars
from Pilan and Camaguey, Cuba, near latitude 20.2 North, longitude
78.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will approach
south-central Cuba late tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected
to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida
Straits on Monday, and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday.
Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west
coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed
by some weakening while the center moves over land. Slight
restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands
tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical
Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west
coast of Florida beginning Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through
today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides,
some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba through Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands through Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches
is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2
to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern
Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida
Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 042043
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

Elsa continues to exhibit some well-defined convective banding
features over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation.
Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55
kt respectively,so the advisory intensity remains at 50 kt.
Although the cirrus-level outflow over the area looks fairly
impressive, the SHIPS output diagnoses about 20 kt of vertical
shear over the cyclone, which may be inhibiting strengthening.
Another negative factor could be blockage of the low-level inflow
by the land masses surrounding the cyclone.

The storm has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
estimate is now 310/12 kt. There is little change to the track
forecast reasoning from the previous advisory package. Elsa should
move around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high
pressure area during the next 3 days or so. Thereafter, the
system should accelerate northward to northeastward over
the eastern United States and the northwest Atlantic. No
significant changes have been made to the NHC track forecast, which
remains close to the simple and correct model consensus solutions.

Some strengthening could occur as the storm approaches the south
coast of Cuba and although not explicitly shown in the official
forecast, Elsa could strengthen to near 60 kt before landfall in
that country. Over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, southwesterly shear
is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity
forecast remains on the high side of the numerical model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Jamaica
tonight where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides
will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands
and Cuba through Monday resulting in significant flooding and
mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula, and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday, heavy
rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern
Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday, and will spread
into portions of the Florida Keys by late Monday.

3. Tropical Storm and Surge Surge Watches are in effect for
portions of the west coast of the Florida peninsula where tropical
storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are possible beginning
as early as Monday night and continuing into Tuesday.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula
Tuesday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the
Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 042043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...ELSA EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 77.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
extended northward to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwannee River, including Tampa
Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Jamaica
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Anclote
River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required tonight or early Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 77.9 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will continue to move near or over eastern Cuba this
evening, and approach central Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa
is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward
the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of
the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Elsa moves over Cuba,
followed by some weakening while the center moves over land.
Slight restrengthening is possible after Elsa moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area in the Florida Keys late Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands
tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys by Monday night. Tropical
Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the west
coast of Florida beginning Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of Jamaica, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches are expected through
today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides,
some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba through Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands through Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches
is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, Florida
Peninsula and coastal Georgia Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2
to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern
Florida Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
on Monday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida
Monday night and Tuesday. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 042042
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO THE ANCLOTE
RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 77.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 77.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 79.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.7N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 82.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.8N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.9N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.5N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.9N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 69.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 77.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041739
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...ELSA NEAR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 77.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Jamaica
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 77.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a
turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move near or over eastern Cuba today, and approach central
Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across
central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on
Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is then
forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual
weakening is forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across
Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some slight restrengthening is
possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of
Jamaica for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of
eastern and central Cuba today and tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the Florida
Keys late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, and in the upper
Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15
inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and
Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 041457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Elsa
this morning. Flight-level and SFMR surface observations from
the aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 50 kt and the
estimated central pressure, about 1009 mb, is rather high for a
system of this intensity. Also, tail Doppler radar data from the
aircraft show an eastward tilt of the center with height.
Nonetheless, the storm still looks fairly impressive on satellite
images with a well-defined convective banding feature over the
northern through eastern portions of the circulation. Also, the
highest cloud tops are quite cold and near -70C.

Elsa's forward speed has slowed a little more, and the current
motion is around 290/11 kt. There hasn't been much change to the
track forecast or reasoning since the previous advisory. Over
the next few days, the tropical cyclone should move around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track
is similar to the previous official forecast, and close to the
model consensus. The latest GFS and HWRF solutions are to the west
of this forecast.

Elsa should remain in a low-shear environment through Monday, and
some strengthening is likely before the storm reaches Cuba,
assuming the circulation becomes better aligned vertically. The
storm should weaken somewhat due to its passage over Cuba. After
the cyclone emerges into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, only
slight restrengthening is forecast due to moderate southwesterly
shear. The official intensity forecast is on the high end of the
numerical intensity guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will continue to affect portions of
southern Haiti and Jamaica today where isolated to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact
the Cayman Islands and Cuba today into Monday resulting in
significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the
Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday, heavy
rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba later
today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of central and western Cuba tonight and Monday.

3. Tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts are
expected beginning late Monday in the Florida Keys, and are
possible along the coast of southwestern Florida beginning
Monday night. Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in
effect in those areas.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts along the remainder of the Florida Peninsula
Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the
Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the
forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 18.7N 76.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of
Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
province of Artemisa.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Jamaica
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the
forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions
of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early
Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba
and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the
Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or
over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches
the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is
forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa
emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman
Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest
coast of Florida by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15
inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and
Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
early next week. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 041454
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY EASTWARD TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* JAMAICA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA BAY
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 76.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 76.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 78.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.4N 81.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.7N 82.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 82.8W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 38.5N 71.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 76.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041158
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...ELSA VERY NEAR JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 76.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 76.2 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Monday. On the
forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of
Haiti during the next couple of hours, and continue to move near
Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central
Cuba tonight. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then
forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual
weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves
across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these
conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western
Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains
possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and
Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4
inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be
possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
early next week. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 040836
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

The last pass from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided
interesting and somewhat confusing data on Elsa. The flight-level
winds and SFMR data indicate that Elsa's intensity remains around 55
kt, but the wind center is located well to the east of the previous
fixes. However, the minimum pressure observed with this new wind
center is a few millibars higher than the fixes that were made
further west last night. The new center is now beneath the
strongest convection, so it seems likely that the mid-level
circulation has built downward to the surface and led to this center
reformation. Elsa does appear a little better organized in
geostationary satellite and microwave images, and it now has a
central dense overcast that is fairly symmetric around the center.
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa shortly, and
the data the aircraft collects will be very helpful in understanding
these structural changes and the new intensity information.

Elsa appears to have slowed down, and smoothing through the latest
center reformation yields an initial motion of 285/12 kt. Despite
the changes to the initial motion and position, the overall track
forecast reasoning has not changed much. Elsa is expected to move
west-northwestward and track near or over Jamaica and eastern Cuba
later this morning and then across or just south of the central and
western portions of Cuba later today through early Monday. By early
Monday, however, Elsa should be making a turn to the north as it
moves between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take the storm
near the Florida Keys by late Monday and near or over the west coast
of Florida on Tuesday. After that time, the storm is forecast to
turn northeastward and increase its forward speed as it tracks
across the southeast U.S. and over the western Atlantic on the
northwest side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one, due in part to the initial motion and
position.

The short term intensity forecast is very dependent on Elsa's exact
track. If the core of the storm moves directly over Jamaica or
Cuba, the small vortex would likely be very disrupted due to the
mountainous islands. However, if the storm manages to pass between
those islands today, some strengthening seems possible given the
improved appearance in satellite images. Weakening is forecast to
occur on Monday due to a combination of land interaction with Cuba
and an increase in vertical wind shear. After the storm moves over
the Florida Straits and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, only a small
amount of restrengthening is expected due to continued moderate wind
shear. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and in line with the majority of the typically skillful
intensity aids.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica
tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman
Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida
Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding
and minor river flooding will be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
central and western Cuba tonight and Monday.

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts beginning late Monday in the Florida
Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the
Florida Keys.

4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge,
and rainfall impacts along the Florida Peninsula Monday night
through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas
Wednesday and Thursday. However, uncertainty in the forecast
remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with
Cuba.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 77.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA
24H 05/0600Z 21.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 05/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 24.6N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 25.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.8N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR FLORIDA COAST
96H 08/0600Z 33.2N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/0600Z 38.4N 72.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...ELSA VERY NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THERE
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 75.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 75.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An
additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On
the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern
portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By
Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and
head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move
near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual
weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves
across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these
conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this
morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western
Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains
possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides, some of which could be significant.

Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and
Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
early next week. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 75.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 105SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 75.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 77.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N 82.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.9N 82.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.8N 82.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.2N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 38.4N 72.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA FURTHER EAST...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be required this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An
additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On
the forecast track, Elsa will remain near the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By
Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and
head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move
near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual
weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa
moves across Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba later today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti
during the next few hours, and on Jamaica and across eastern and
central Cuba later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area in the Cayman Islands by tonight and in western Cuba
and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall
of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
expected today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba today and Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands today and Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
early next week. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 040259
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

Elsa is undergoing a convective bursting pattern the past few
hours, with some cold overshooting tops of -90 deg C east and
northeast of the center. However, data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that this convective increase has
not translated into an intensity increase. To the contrary, 5000-ft
flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased while the central
pressure has increased to 1004 mb. Based on the latest recon data,
the intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The aircraft has now
climbed to 10,000 ft for safety reasons and will be penetrating the
area of intense convection to check for stronger winds there.

The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to
gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer
subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an
additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has
continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the
corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each
other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA
and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more
westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed
admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad
west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top
of the previous advisory track.

After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level
field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in
intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening
could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central
coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at
more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected
after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by
some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf
Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear
increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant
strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very
asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most
of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the
east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the
previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected
consensus models.

Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree
of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to
factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC
track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica
tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman
Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida
Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding
and minor river flooding will be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and
the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now
in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread
northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday,
however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due
to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and
Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S.
coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.9N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040249
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER AND MOVING
SLOWER BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 75.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the southern portion of Haiti from Port
Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti north of Port Au Prince has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida
peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required Sunday
morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 17.9 North, longitude 75.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the
west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). An additional decrease in
forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over the
next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight,
with some slight strengthening possible Sunday afternoon as Elsa
approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual
weakening is forecast to occur Sunday night and Monday when Elsa
will be moving over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was
estimated to be 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti
tonight and on Jamaica and over eastern and central Cuba on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in western Cuba and the
Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall
of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040246
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC SUN JUL 04 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT
AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY
MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 75.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 032356
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch for the
Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida
peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or
on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 74.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). An
additional decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or
Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti over the next few hours, and then move near
Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is
expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the
Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move move near or over
portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday, but
gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday night and Monday when Elsa
is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center. A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h)
was recently reported in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible for a few more hours over portions of the Dominican
Republic, and are expected on Jamaica and over eastern and central
Cuba on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in
western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 032053
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

Satellite imagery shows that Elsa looks ragged and disorganized at
this time, with bursts of convection occuring near the low-level
center and poorly-defined convective banding. Some of this is
likely due to the the proximity of the system to Hispaniola. Air
Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported
reliable 55-60 kt surface wind estimates from the SFMR, along with
the latest central pressure report of 1000 mb. The initial
intensity remains 60 kt based mainly on the SFMR data.

The initial motion is now 295/24. There is little change in
the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Elsa is
approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large
baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global
models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but
the southern portion is likely to split off and become an
upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with
the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the
this low. In response, Elsa should slow its forward motion and
turn northwestward during the next 48 h, followed by a general
northward motion from 60-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies
after that time. The forecast track takes the center near or over
southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the
Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the
system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United
States on its way into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is
changed little from the previous advisory, and it lies near the
center of the now reasonably-agreeing track guidance envelope.

In addition to land interaction, Elsa continues to be affected by
northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast
low-level flow that the storm is embedded in. Some shear is
expected to continue through the next 72 h. However, once the
system passes the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, there may be less
land interaction than previously forecast. The intensity guidance is
in good agreement on weakening during the next 48 h, and the GFS,
UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a not very vertically aligned system
with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that, despite the shear,
upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned
upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification as forecast
by the HWRF and other models. The new NHC intensity forecast calls
for some weakening in the first 48 h and then shows re-
intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h,
the forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of Haiti at this
time, as there is still the possibility that a short-lived
re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst.

Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the
degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are
urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average
NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.

Key Messages:

1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti,
where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are
expected through this evening.

2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact
the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in
significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the
Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash
flooding and minor river flooding will be possible.

3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and
the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now
in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread
northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday,
however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due
to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and
Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S.
coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.5N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.6N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 23.1N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 24.9N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 26.9N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/1800Z 36.5N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 032052
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 73.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from
Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and
Cienfuegos, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of
Mayabeque and Havana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida
peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or
on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 73.9 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over
the next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of
eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across
central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa
is then forecast to move move near or over portions of the west
coast of Florida on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday, but
gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday night and Monday when Elsa
is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions
are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible for a few more hours over portions of the Dominican
Republic, and are expected on Jamaica and over eastern and central
Cuba on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in
western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 032049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND
CIENFUEGOS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MAYABEQUE AND HAVANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ELSA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR
ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 73.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 73.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 78.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.6N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.1N 81.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.9N 82.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.9N 83.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 36.5N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 73.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031748
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 73.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has changed
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta
Palenque to the border with Haiti, changed the Tropical Storm
Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the
north coast of the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 73.0 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through
tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when
Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center. Port Au Prince, Haiti, recently
reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti later today. Hurricane conditions are possible
in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring
over portions of the Dominican Republic, are expected on Jamaica
and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba
Sunday night or Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 031602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.07.2021

HURRICANE ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 70.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.07.2021 16.8N 70.3W WEAK
00UTC 04.07.2021 18.2N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2021 20.2N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 45.2N 31.8E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.07.2021 45.2N 31.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 06.07.2021 44.2N 30.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2021 42.8N 29.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 25.0N 84.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2021 25.8N 84.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.07.2021 28.1N 84.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2021 30.0N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2021 32.5N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2021 34.7N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2021 37.8N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031602

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031533 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

Corrected Cuban province to Cienfuegos in the summary section

...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of
Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and
Matanzas.

The Government of Jamaica has changed the Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday
when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern
Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 031531 CCA
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021

CORRECTED CUBAN PROVINCE TO CIENFUEGOS IN SUMMARY SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 70.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 71.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 031501
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite imagery indicate that Elsa has weakened some since the
last advisory. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum
surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt. The
aircraft-reported central pressure is near 999 mb and gradually
rising, In addition, the center was exposed for a few hours,
although it is now located at the northwestern edge of a new
convective burst. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity
is reduced to 60 kt.

The initial motion is now 295/25. Elsa is approaching a weakness in
the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the
eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to
move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely
to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the
western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic
situated to the east of the this low. This evolution should cause
Elsa to slow its current breakneck forward speed during the next day
or so, then turn northwestward between 36-60 h, followed by a
general northward motion from 72-96 h and recurvature into the
westerlies after that time. The track guidance is in much better
agreement than this time yesterday, and Elsa is expected to pass
near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After
that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern
United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new NHC forecast
track has only minor adjustments from the previous one, and it lies
near the various consensus models.

Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at
least partly due to the fast forward motion. While the forward
speed is forecast to decrease over the next few days, continued
westerly shear and land interaction are expected to cause additional
weakening. Indeed, by 60 h, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as
a weak system with some separation between the low- and mid-level
centers. While some shear is likely to continue when the storm is
near or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, upper-level divergence
associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for
some re-intensification. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for
more weakening in the first 48 h than previously forecast and then
shows re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first
72 h, the forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Although Elsa is now a tropical storm, hurricane warnings remain in
effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti at this
time, as conditions have not yet reached their worst there and the
possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due
to a convective burst.

Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the
degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are
urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average
NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles,
respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph
for both days 3 and 4.

Key Messages:

1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti and
the Dominican Republic, where near-hurricane conditions and
dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening.

2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman
Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida
Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding
and minor river flooding will be possible.

3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba
beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
central Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and
the southern Florida Peninsula. This risk will spread northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts
of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however
uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's
potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba.
Interests in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should
monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 17.0N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 71.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of
Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and
Matanzas.

The Government of Jamaica has changed the Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, CinemaScope, and Matanzas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is
forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday
when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane
warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern
Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or
Monday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature.

Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 031446
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CINEMASCOPE...AND MATANZAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 70.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 71.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031157
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 70.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 70.3 West. Elsa is moving very
quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a
turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later
today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern
Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central
and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow
weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to
be near or over Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday,
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding
with mudslides in Cuba.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030838
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

Elsa appears less organized this morning. Satellite images show an
asymmetric cloud pattern with the low-level center located near the
northwestern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This satellite
presentation is indicative of moderate-to-strong northwesterly
shear that is likely caused by the tropical cyclone's fast forward
motion. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt following a blend
of the latest Dvorak estimates. The hurricane passed by NOAA buoy
42059 a few hours ago, and the storm's minimum pressure was
adjusted a few millibars higher based on the buoy's data. Another
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be flying through Elsa in
a couple of hours, and the data the plane collects will provide a
better estimate of Elsa's intensity and structure.

Elsa continues to move very quickly to the west-northwest at about
27 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should
keep it on a west-northwest path, albeit at a slightly slower pace
through the weekend. This should take the core of the storm just
south of or over southern Hispaniola later today and near or
across Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Sunday. Shortly after that time,
Elsa is expected to near the western edge of the ridge and move
toward a weakness over the southeastern U.S. In response to this
pattern change, Elsa should slow down some more and turn to the
north. The models appear to be slowly converging on a solution in
showing the cyclone making the northward turn somewhere over Cuba on
Monday and then heading in the vicinity of Florida or the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Although the
models are in better agreement compared to previous days, there is
still a considerable amount of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble
members, and the details of the long-term track are still uncertain.

Some mid-level wind shear associated with Elsa's fast forward speed
appears to be affecting the hurricane now. However, since the
cyclone is expected to slow down and move beneath an upper-level
anticyclone later this weekend, it seems likely that the vortex will
become better aligned in the vertical. The big question is will
Elsa be interacting with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and
Cuba when the environmental winds become conducive for
strengthening. If the cyclone manages to stay south of those
islands, Elsa could have an opportunity to restrengthen. Conversely,
if the storm tracks directly over the islands, weakening would very
likely occur. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows
little change in strength through tonight, followed by slow
weakening on Sunday and early Monday. Slight restrengthening is
forecast when Elsa moves north of Cuba and across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This forecast is a little lower than the previous one in
the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast
times.

Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the
degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are
urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference,
average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150
miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15
mph for both days 3 and 4.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic later today and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding
and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the
Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant
flooding with mudslides in Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and
minor river flooding will be possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 16.2N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 17.5N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.0N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.5N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 22.1N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1800Z 23.4N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/0600Z 24.7N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 33.7N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 69.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 69.0 West. Elsa is moving
very quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On
the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and
portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to
move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida
Straits.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today,
but slow weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is
expected to be near or over Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact
Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with
localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday,
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding
with mudslides in Cuba.

Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys
and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may
result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030837
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 69.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 69.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 72.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 75.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 77.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 79.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 81.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.7N 82.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 33.7N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 69.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030549
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021

...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY IN PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 67.8W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the
Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 67.8 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday
night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the
southern coast of Hispaniola late today or tonight, and move near
Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is
expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward
the Florida Straits.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is possible today, but slow weakening
is expected to begin tonight or Sunday as Elsa interacts with the
landmasses of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late today. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to
impact Puerto Rico in a few hours with rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible today. This
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding,
along with the potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
possible today and Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030259
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER...
...HURRICANE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY LATE SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 66.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor
the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely
be required on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 66.3 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward
speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the
central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast
of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move
near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast
tonight, with some restrengthening expected on Saturday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa
interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from
the aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or
Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to
impact Puerto Rico tonight with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
with localized amounts of 5 inches possible through Saturday. This
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding,
along with the potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030258
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO
DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 66.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030257
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Elsa has weakened slightly, and that the flight-level and
surface centers are not vertically aligned. The maximum 700-mb wind
speed measured was 75 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind sampled
was 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, these data were
collected outside of the strongest convection that was occurring
just east of the flight track, so the intensity has only been
lowered to 70 kt, which is supported by the slightly higher central
pressure of 995 mb sampled by a dropsonde.

The initial motion estimate now is 285/25 kt. There remains little
significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The
latest 00Z model guidance has become more convergent and now lies
nearly on top of the previous advisory track. Over the last 48 h,
the ECMWF model has steadily shifted Elsa's track westward by about
1 degree of longitude each model cycle, with the latest ECMWF
forecast track now being located about 240 nmi west of its forecast
track two days ago. As a result, less weight has been placed on the
ECMWF solution for this advisory. However, even its latest solution
no longer takes Elsa over the heart of Hispaniola. Elsa should
continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next 48 h,
accompanied by a slow but steady decrease in forward speed. By the
time the hurricane nears southern Cuba, the forward speed should be
less than 15 kt. Thereafter, Elsa should gradually turn
northwestward and eventually northward through a developing weakness
in the subtropical ridge This motion should take Elsa across Cuba
and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula
on day 4, followed by a motion over the coastal regions of the
southeastern United States on day 5. The new NHC forecast track is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely
follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models, and the TVCA
simple consensus model.

Elsa's fast forward speed and recent entrainment of dry mid-level
air into the western semicircle has eroded some of the inner-core
convection, resulting in the aforementioned weakening. In fact, NOAA
G-IV dropsondes launched around 2100 UTC northwest of Elsa indicated
a significant dry-air layer between 400-500-hPa that may have
been imported by moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. However, as
the cyclone's forward speed steadily decreases, the low-, mid-, and
upper-level circulations should become more vertically aligned,
which should allow for at least some slight re-strengthening during
the next 24 h or so. Possible interaction with the landmasses of
Haiti, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica is the primary reason for not
showing a more robust intensity forecast given the very warm water
beneath the hurricane and a very favorable upper-level wind flow
regime. The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model. For now, the official NHC intensity
forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and shows
only slight re-strengthening due to possible interaction with land.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. The outer rain bands from Elsa will impact Puerto Rico by late
tonight, with widespread heavy rain moving into southern Hispaniola
and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides are possible. Through early next week, heavy
rain is expected to impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba resulting in
significant flooding with mudslides possible in Cuba.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 66.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022358
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Martinique.

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada And Its Dependencies.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 65.1 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward
speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn
toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track,
Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the
central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast
of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move
near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa
interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area in the northern Leeward Islands for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, this evening. This
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall
with decrease across this area by early Saturday morning.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected tonight into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is
possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result
in significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 022200
TCUAT5

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
600 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of St. Vincent and the
Grenadines as of 600 PM AST...2200 UTC.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 022147 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 10...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Corrected motion heading in second paragraph.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa
has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a
combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and
dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt. The
aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat
disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned
with with the surface center. The former issue is likely due to
the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of
westerly shear.

The initial motion now is 280/26. There is again little change to
the forecast track or the forecast guidance. The guidance is in
good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the
south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed
by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed
through 48 h. After that time, Elsa should gradually turn
northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. This motion should take the
cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the
nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern
United States by the end of the period. The track guidance is a
little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread
in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low
confidence.

The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance
are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the
next several days. The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of
northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear
after 60 h. In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably
weaker storm than its last several runs. The intensity forecast
thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h,
although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more
during that time. After that, land interaction and shear are
likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of
Mexico. However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a
Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity
forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the
guidance.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall will gradually subside across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands tonight, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, and affect southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides are possible. By early next week, heavy
rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Significant flooding
and mudslides are possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.2N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.9N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 21.4N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 022055
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa
has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a
combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and
dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt. The
aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat
disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned
with with the surface center. The former issue is likely due to
the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of
westerly shear.

The initial motion now is 290/26. There is again little change to
the forecast track or the forecast guidance. The guidance is in
good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the
south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed
by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed
through 48 h. After that time, Elsa should gradually turn
northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. This motion should take the
cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the
nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern
United States by the end of the period. The track guidance is a
little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread
in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low
confidence.

The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance
are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the
next several days. The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of
northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear
after 60 h. In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably
weaker storm than its last several runs. The intensity forecast
thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h,
although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more
during that time. After that, land interaction and shear are
likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of
Mexico. However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a
Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity
forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the
guidance.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected
within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican
Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday.

2. Heavy rainfall will gradually subside across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands tonight, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, and affect southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides are possible. By early next week, heavy
rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Significant flooding
and mudslides are possible.

3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in
portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm
surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday.

4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall
impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward
along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast
uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential
interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend.
Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.2N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.9N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 21.4N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 63.7W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Jamaica.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and
Santiago de Cuba.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 63.7 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through Saturday. A west-northwestward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On
the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea
tonight and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late
Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of
central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday.
Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as
Elsa passes near or over the Greater Antilles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane
conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are
possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide
levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow
within the hurricane watch and warning areas...

Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet
Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet
Jamaica...1 to 3 feet

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the
Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in
significant flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 022049
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 63.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 63.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 71.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 79.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 63.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS MORE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Cayman Brac and Little
Cayman.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has changed the Hurricane
Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines to a Tropical Storm
Warning, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Dominica
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to
Cabo Engano
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 62.5 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some
decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the forecast
track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next
several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this afternoon
and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late
Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move
near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of
central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa
interacts with Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter data is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas
and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in
Haiti by late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area
in the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions
are possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the
hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021557 CCA
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021

CORRECTED TO ADD 64-KT WIND RADII AT 48 H

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2021

HURRICANE ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 59.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.07.2021 0 13.0N 59.4W 1006 46
0000UTC 03.07.2021 12 14.7N 65.2W 1005 44
1200UTC 03.07.2021 24 16.4N 70.1W 1006 41
0000UTC 04.07.2021 36 17.6N 73.6W 1003 47
1200UTC 04.07.2021 48 19.3N 76.3W 1003 40
0000UTC 05.07.2021 60 21.4N 78.5W 1007 28
1200UTC 05.07.2021 72 22.0N 81.1W 1012 27
0000UTC 06.07.2021 84 22.6N 82.0W 1012 25
1200UTC 06.07.2021 96 24.1N 83.2W 1014 27
0000UTC 07.07.2021 108 25.6N 83.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 07.07.2021 120 27.4N 83.7W 1011 36
0000UTC 08.07.2021 132 29.0N 83.7W 1008 37
1200UTC 08.07.2021 144 30.8N 82.7W 1011 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021604

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.07.2021

HURRICANE ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 59.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.07.2021 13.0N 59.4W WEAK
00UTC 03.07.2021 14.7N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2021 16.4N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2021 17.6N 73.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2021 19.3N 76.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2021 21.4N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2021 22.0N 81.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.07.2021 22.6N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.07.2021 24.1N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.07.2021 25.6N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.07.2021 27.4N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2021 29.0N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2021 30.8N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021604

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 021545
TCUAT5

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1145 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic
from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 021505
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Elsa has become better organized,
and radar data from Barbados and Martinique have shown attempts at
eye formation. The formative northern eyewall passed over Barbados
near 11-12Z, and hurricane-force winds were reported there at that
time. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on those data. It
should be noted that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft suggest that the circulation is not well-developed
at 700 mb, possible due to the rapid forward speed.

The initial motion is 290/25. There is little change to the
forecast track or the forecast guidance since the last advisory.
The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward
notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic by 36 hr.
After that, the general consensus is that Elsa should turn northward
by 96 h through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a
mid-latitude trough. However, the guidance is quite divergent
around this consensus, with possible tracks ranging from a
west-northwestward motion through the Yucatan Channel or western
Cuba to a northward motion through the Bahamas. Thus, the latter
portion of the track forecast remains low confidence.

The intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening during
the next 36 h as Elsa moves through an environment of light
westerly shear. After that, land interaction, along with less
favorable upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, is likely to
cause weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast shows major
adjustments from the previous forecasts based primarily on the
initial intensity.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the
larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well
away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on
the exact forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area
in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in other portions of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane
Warning area in Haiti on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected with hurricane conditions possible along the southern
coast of the Dominican Republic and in Jamaica.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge and
rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba this weekend and early next
week, with impacts also possible in the Turks and Caicos and
the Bahamas. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's
progress and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021501
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING NEAR ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 61.2W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the southern portion of
Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican
Republic.

The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from
Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti, a Tropical Storm Warning
for the south coast from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, and
a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo.

The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical
Storm Warning for Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Dominica
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the
border with Haiti
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the
border with Haiti
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to
Bahia de Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the
Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some
decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the
forecast track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands
during the next several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean
Sea later today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa
is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and
move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and
early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa
interacts with Cuba.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). The Hewanorra Airport on St. Lucia recently reported
sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (127
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the Windward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are
possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Hurricane
conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti by
late Saturday and are possible in the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are
possible on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the
hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the
Caribbean Sea during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021501
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI...AND
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 64.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 69.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 73.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 78.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.6N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 021320
TCUAT5

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
920 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Dominica.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 021259
TCUAT5

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
900 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has replaced the Hurricane
Warning for Barbados with a Tropical Storm Warning.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 021223
TCDAT5

Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a
hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the
first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts. More
revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular
advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system this afternoon.

There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. It should
be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal
uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the
center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact
forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning
in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1230Z 13.1N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021222
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Special Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS..


SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Hurricane
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the
border with Haiti
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Jamaica
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today, including Hurricane
Warnings for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 830 AM AST (1230 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located
near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. Elsa is moving toward
the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa
is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Reports from Barbados indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph
(119 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (138 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
Barbados recently reported a pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados, and are
expected in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands in
the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the
tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm
watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday,
with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early
Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and along the
southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may
lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021222
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* JAMAICA
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY...INCLUDING HURRICANE
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 60.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 021147
TCUAT5

Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
745 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone
is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the
hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane
Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane
Warning for St. Lucia.

The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of
74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.

SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 59.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Latto/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 021018
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
620 AM AST Fri Jul 2 2021

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Dominica.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020852
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

Elsa appears to be slowly gaining strength as it nears the Lesser
Antilles. Deep convection has been increasing, and accordingly, the
latest Dvorak estimates have nudged upward. The initial intensity
is increased to 50 kt, but some of the estimates are a little
higher. Radar data from Barbados indicate that a small inner core
could be forming, and it seems likely that the center will pass very
near or over the island later this morning. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours, and
the data collected by the plane should provide a better estimate of
Elsa's intensity and structure.

The tropical storm is moving quickly to the west-northwest at about
24 kt. A subtropical ridge should continue to steer Elsa briskly to
the west-northwest during the next day or two, taking the storm
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, a
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the north is
expected toward a weakness in the ridge. There has not been much
change in the latest model runs with the GFS and UKMET models on the
left side of the guidance and the ECMWF still on the right side.
The spread in the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF is very
large and range from tracks across or east of the Bahamas to the
Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast continues to hold steady
and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. As
stated in previous discussions, this is a low confidence track
forecast given the large spread in the models.

In the short term, while Elsa moves across the warm Caribbean
waters, some additional strengthening seems likely. However, the
fast forward speed of the storm and associated mid-level wind shear
should prevent significant intensification. Since the new forecast
is a little higher than the previous one and shows peak winds just
below hurricane force on Saturday near Haiti, tropical storm
warnings have been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti and a hurricane watch is now in effect for the southern
portion of Haiti out of abundance of caution. The degree of land
interaction with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba will
be a big factor in the future strength of Elsa at days 4 and 5.
Like the track forecast, there is a huge model spread with solutions
ranging from dissipation in the Caribbean to a category 3 hurricane.
Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast generally keeps the
storm steady in strength from 24 to 120 h, and it remains on the low
side of the model guidance.

It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles
and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-
normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from
the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact
forecast points.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this
morning in portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain
bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides
are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and
updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 12.7N 58.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND IS VERY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 58.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from
Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the entire coast of
Haiti, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern
portion of the country from Port Au Prince to the southern border
with the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the
border with Haiti
* Entire coast of Haiti

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern
border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West. Elsa is
moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over
the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and
possible in the watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and
Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern
Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday
night or early Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible
Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash
flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020849
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER
WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
THE BORDER WITH HAITI
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.6W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 58.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020539
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 57.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and Sint Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti,
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 57.2 West. Elsa is
moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands later today, move
across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by little change in strength.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles later today, are possible in the
Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, and are possible in
Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected later today and into Saturday. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along
with the potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020257
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The convective structure with Elsa tonight appears to be somewhat
better organized than earlier, with a bursting type pattern of cold
-75 to -80 C cloud top temperatures just to the northeast of the
estimated center. However, a SSMIS microwave pass at 2130 UTC
revealed that, underneath the cirrus, the deeper convection is still
struggling to rotate up-shear as the system moves quickly to the
west-northwest. Despite that fact, an ASCAT-A pass clipped the
northeastern edge of Elsa and showed several wind retrievals of
44-46 kt. In addition, the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite
classification from TAFB was T3.0/45 kt. In support of these data,
the current estimated intensity was raised to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Elsa continues to move quickly to the west-northwest at 290/23 kt. A
continued rapid motion to the west-northwest is expected for the
next 36 hours as the storm remains steered by a strong subtropical
ridge to its north, and the guidance has trended a bit faster once
again tonight. Thereafter, Elsa will reach the western extent of
this ridge which will be eroded by a strong mid-latitude trough
centered off the eastern US. Once again, the guidance spread
increases greatly by this time, with the GFS/UKMET on the slow and
left side of the guidance envelope, the ECMWF and its ensembles on
the fast and right side, and the Canadian roughly in the middle.
Interestingly, the latest GFS ensembles show some bifurcation within
the larger guidance envelope, with the strongest members further
south and west. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the
previous track early on but somewhat faster, and in the latter
period was nudged just slightly eastward towards the TVCN
consensus. However, the track forecast in the latter time period
remains low confidence.

The intensity forecast with Elsa also continues to be challenging
this evening. While the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates that the
current 200-850-hPa vertical wind shear is only 5-10 kt, the strong
east-southeasterly low-level flow Elsa is embedded in is resulting
in stronger 15-20 kt of west-northwesterly mid-level shear. This
mid-level shear has thus far prevented deep convection from wrapping
around the circulation and helping to align the low- and mid-level
vortex like the GFS/HWRF models have been forecasting over the past
day. Despite this convective structure, the fast east-southeasterly
low-level flow will likely continue to enhance the winds on the
north side of the circulation. For this reason, the intensity
forecast still shows intensification in the short term to 55 kt.
However, additional intensification beyond that will likely require
a better vertically aligned vortex. This structure may be difficult
to achieve as moderate mid-level shear continues, counter to the
motion vector of the storm. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast
shows slight weakening given the possibility of land interaction
over the Greater Antilles. The latest intensity forecast continues
remain on the conservative side relative to the guidance, especially
the HWRF/HMON regional hurricane models, and is also low
confidence.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are
possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday, and
are also possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer
rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola
by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next
week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 11.8N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020251
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 55.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti,
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.9 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward
Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near
the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is
forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Recent satellite wind data indicates that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Recent satellite wind data also indicates the tropical-storm-force
winds now extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly to the
north of the center. NOAA Buoy 41040, located more than 200 miles
north of the center of Elsa, recently reported a wind gust of 38
mph (61 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti
on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020250
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 54.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.8N 59.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 64.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 69.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 73.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N 81.7W...OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 55.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012345
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA HEADING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND A PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 54.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from
the Haiti/Dominican Republic border eastward to Punta Palenque.

The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Jamaica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas
* The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern
border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti,
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 54.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti
on Saturday, and are possible in Jamaica Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012051
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC THU JUL 01 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE LE ST. NICHOLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 53.8W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 52.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 53.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 012047
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The structure of Elsa has changed little since the last advisory,
with the low-level center partly exposed to the northwest of the
somewhat-ragged primary convective band. Various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little during
the last 6 h, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/25. There is little change to the
track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A rapid
west-northwestward motion is likely for the next 48 h or so as Elsa
is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. After
that time, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as this happens, as
the ECWMF and the ECMWF ensembles forecast a turn toward the north
while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a continued west-
northwestward to northwestward motion. In addition, the GFS
ensemble members are spread from a continued west-northwestward
motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula on one side to a northward
motion east of the northern Bahamas on the other. The latter part
of the new NHC forecast track will still lean more toward the
deterministic GFS/UKMET solutions, but the confidence remains low.
The new official forecast track again has only minor adjustments
from the previous forecast.

The intensity forecast and its high uncertainty are also little
changed from the last advisory. Some strengthening is expected
during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an
environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, light vertical wind
shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, as mentioned
earlier, the fast forward motion could result in the upper and lower
parts of the storm being unable to stay together, and this could
limit strengthening. The latter part of the intensity forecast also
has the issues of possible land interaction and disagreements among
the global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be,
although the latest model runs trended toward less favorable
conditions north of about 22N. This uncertainty is highlighted by
the UKMET forecasting Elsa to weaken to a trough near western Cuba
while the GFS forecasts it to be a hurricane in the same area and
time. Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues
to be on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, and are
possible over portions of southern Hispaniola on Saturday.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Outer
rain bands will impact Puerto Rico on Friday and southern Hispaniola
by early Saturday. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Cuba, Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early
next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week.
However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to
Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend.
Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to
the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.1N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.5N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.1N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.3N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.8N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012046
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southern and western
coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic
to Le Mole le St. Nicholas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border
of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern
Cuba, and Jamaica should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required later tonight and
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 53.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the
Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday,
Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas in the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in Haiti on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the southern coast of Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain
may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts
of 5 inches is expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

Along portions of southern Hispaniola, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible on Saturday.
This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011745
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA NOW MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even
faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next
24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.
By early Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern
Cuba.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over
Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5
inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAONI ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2S 40.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2021 0 26.2S 40.6W 1020 29
0000UTC 02.07.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 50.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2021 0 10.1N 50.4W 1011 33
0000UTC 02.07.2021 12 11.5N 54.2W 1010 35
1200UTC 02.07.2021 24 12.5N 59.1W 1009 41
0000UTC 03.07.2021 36 14.2N 64.5W 1008 42
1200UTC 03.07.2021 48 16.1N 69.6W 1008 42
0000UTC 04.07.2021 60 17.3N 73.8W 1009 37
1200UTC 04.07.2021 72 18.6N 76.8W 1008 40
0000UTC 05.07.2021 84 19.5N 79.6W 1009 34
1200UTC 05.07.2021 96 21.0N 82.5W 1012 32
0000UTC 06.07.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011603

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.07.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAONI ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2S 40.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2021 26.2S 40.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ELSA ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 50.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2021 10.1N 50.4W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2021 11.5N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2021 12.5N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2021 14.2N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2021 16.1N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2021 17.3N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2021 18.6N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2021 19.5N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2021 21.0N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011603

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 011453
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

Just-received scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt winds to the
northeast of the center, so the initial intensity is increased to
40 kt. Some slight revisions were also made to the initial and
forecast wind radii. Over all, the organization of the storm has
changed little during the past several hours, with the low-level
center partly exposed to the north and northwest of the primary
convective band.

Elsa continues to move a little faster with the initial motion now
280/24. A rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next
48 h or so as Elsa is steered by the strong subtropical ridge to
the north. After that time, the storm is expected to approach a
weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the
eastern United states. The guidance becomes rather divergent as
this happens, as the ECWMF and ECMWF ensemble mean forecast a turn
toward the north while the GFS and UKMET are forecasting a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion. The latter part of the
new NHC forecast track will lean more toward the GFS/UKMET solutions
at this time, but the large spread in both the deterministic models
and the ensembles make this part of the forecast of low confidence.
The new official forecast track has only minor adjustments from the
previous forecast.

Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so
as Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface
temperatures, light vertical wind shear, and high mid-level
relative humidity. However, as mentioned earlier, the fast forward
motion could result in some decoupling of the lower and upper parts
of the storm, and this could limit strengthening. The latter part
of the intensity forecast also has high uncertainty due to the
possibility of land interaction and disagreements among the
global models on how favorable the upper-level winds will be.
Based on these factors, the NHC intensity forecast continues to be
on the lower end of the intensity guidance suite.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday, with
outer rain bands impacting Puerto Rico Friday into Saturday.
Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas through early
next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.

4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the
Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida Peninsula early
next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than
usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles
this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress
and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 10.1N 51.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011447
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT RACES TOWARD THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 51.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 51.4 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west near 28 mph (44 km/h). An even faster motion
toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of
the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early
Sunday Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. Over
Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5
inches are expected Friday into Saturday. This rain may lead to
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 011447
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 51.4W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N 54.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N 59.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 64.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N 69.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.6N 82.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 51.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011149
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...ELSA CONTINUING QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 50.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 50.2 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster motion
toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of
the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and
move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may
lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010854
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern became a little better
organized overnight, with convective banding features becoming more
evident over the western and southwestern portions of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of
the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The
current intensity is set at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB, and just slightly above the maximum
winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, making the cyclone a
tropical storm. Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on
record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present),
breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.

The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial
motion is around 275/22 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated
to the north of the storm, and this feature should steer the system
quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. There is
significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5. The
ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with
Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K.
Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and
within the latter suite of guidance. However the discrepancy in
the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.

Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa
is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface
temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high
mid-level relative humidity. However, the fast forward motion could
result in some decoupling of the low- and higher-level circulation
which would limit strengthening. Also, the potential interaction
of the storm with the mountainous land masses of the Greater
Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation
somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the
previous one, is quite conservative and on the lower end of the
guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in
portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on
Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in
these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 48.8W
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 48.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster
motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36
hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Elsa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas
on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may
lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 48.8W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 48.8W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 48.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010542
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 47.4W
ABOUT 950 MI...1535 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. The depression
is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). An even faster
motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36
hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Five can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning area
beginning late tonight and into Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area beginning late tonight and into
Friday.

RAINFALL: The system will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.07.2021

TROPICAL STORM RAONI ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3S 41.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : SA052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2021 0 28.3S 41.3W 1013 33
1200UTC 01.07.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 45.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2021 0 10.0N 45.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 01.07.2021 12 10.6N 49.0W 1010 35
0000UTC 02.07.2021 24 11.7N 53.9W 1009 38
1200UTC 02.07.2021 36 12.8N 58.6W 1007 44
0000UTC 03.07.2021 48 14.4N 63.6W 1004 48
1200UTC 03.07.2021 60 16.0N 68.4W 1003 48
0000UTC 04.07.2021 72 17.3N 72.3W 999 53
1200UTC 04.07.2021 84 18.8N 75.2W 1000 52
0000UTC 05.07.2021 96 21.4N 78.0W 1007 33
1200UTC 05.07.2021 108 23.6N 80.7W 1011 29
0000UTC 06.07.2021 120 24.4N 82.7W 1011 24
1200UTC 06.07.2021 132 25.5N 83.7W 1013 27
0000UTC 07.07.2021 144 27.0N 84.1W 1013 32

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 109.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2021 0 23.2N 109.7W 1009 24
1200UTC 01.07.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 45.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2021 0 10.0N 45.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 01.07.2021 12 10.6N 49.0W 1010 35
0000UTC 02.07.2021 24 11.7N 53.9W 1009 38
1200UTC 02.07.2021 36 12.8N 58.6W 1007 44
0000UTC 03.07.2021 48 14.4N 63.6W 1004 48
1200UTC 03.07.2021 60 16.0N 68.4W 1003 48
0000UTC 04.07.2021 72 17.3N 72.3W 999 53
1200UTC 04.07.2021 84 18.8N 75.2W 1000 52
0000UTC 05.07.2021 96 21.4N 78.0W 1007 33
1200UTC 05.07.2021 108 23.6N 80.7W 1011 29
0000UTC 06.07.2021 120 24.4N 82.7W 1011 24
1200UTC 06.07.2021 132 25.5N 83.7W 1013 27
0000UTC 07.07.2021 144 27.0N 84.1W 1013 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 44.8N 9.5E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.07.2021 132 44.5N 7.7E 1003 32
0000UTC 07.07.2021 144 44.1N 8.7E 1006 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010359

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010255
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

The satellite presentation of the system over the last 6-12 hours
has continued to gradually improve, with a prominent banding feature
to the west of the estimated center. An ASCAT-A pass received at
2323 UTC revealed that the low-level circulation has become a bit
better defined compared to earlier today, though still somewhat
elongated to the south and west. The peak wind retrievals from this
instrument were 30-32 kt. While subjective satellite estimates
from TAFB and SAB were a bit higher, the latest estimated intensity
was held at 30 kt for this advisory in agreement with the slightly
lower scatterometer data.

The initial motion has accelerated a bit tonight at 280/20
kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated poleward of the tropical
depression and this feature should steer the system quickly to the
west-northwest over the next several days. After 72 hours, the
tropical cyclone will reach the westward extent of the ridge and
begin to move more poleward and slow down as the ridge also becomes
eroded by a mid-latitude trough to over the eastern US. The track
guidance in the latter portion of the forecast continues to exhibit
large spread, with the GFS and HWRF/HMON models along the left side
of the guidance envelop, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean
on the right side. The latest NHC track forecast is a shade right
of the previous one, and also slightly faster, but given the spread
in the models, the latter portion of the track is more uncertain
than usual.

While the depression is currently in a favorable environment of low
vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and high
mid-level relative humidity, the expected acceleration in forward
motion could cause the system to outrun the favorable upper-level
easterlies currently overhead, after 36 hours. In addition, the
system could be near or over some of the Greater Antilles in the
latter portions of the forecast. For these reasons, the intensity
remained capped at 50 kt after 36 hours, and is still on the lower
end of the intensity guidance suite, though this forecast could be
somewhat conservative.


Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to become a tropical storm
before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions
are expected beginning late Thursday night in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in
these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the
forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 9.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
120H 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 46.3W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique.

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five
was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 46.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). An even
faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to
36 hours. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and the tropical depression is expected to
become a tropical storm early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning area
beginning late Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Thursday
night into Friday.

RAINFALL: The system will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and
southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce
isolated flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010253
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
0300 UTC THU JUL 01 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 46.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 45.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.5N 49.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 54.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 59.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 69.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.3N 73.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF HAITI
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 78.6W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 46.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 302342
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
9.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday
across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including
Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 302104
TCUAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe.

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 302054
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the
low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming
better organized. However, earlier scatterometer data showed that
the circulation was elongated and not well defined. Since the
system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected
to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories
are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five.
The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer
data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 285/18. The disturbance is currently on the
south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the
system should move rapidly west-northwestward. Indeed, the forward
speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser
Antilles. There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this
part of the forecast track. After 72 h, the system is expected to
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough
over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow
its forward speed and turn more northwestward. The track guidance
become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north
the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is
most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts. Note that the track
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet
have a well-defined center.

The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind
pattern. However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25
kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the
fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear. Thus, the NHC
intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the
intensity guidance. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes
highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in
the model forecasts of the upper-level winds. This portion of the
NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to
the level of uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching
the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible
beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos
and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the
forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have
a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the
system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 9.6N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 302050
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 43.7W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti
should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and
additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
9.6 North, longitude 43.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over
portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday
night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of
the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday
across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including
Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 302050
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 43.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 43.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 42.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 43.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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