Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000795
Name ELSA-21
From - To 30 Jun - 09 Jul
Exposed countries Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (09 Jul 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS 139 km/h 2.1 m n.a. 1.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 137 km/h 1.3 m 448 mm 0.5
GFS 112 km/h 1 m 553 mm 0.5
ECMWF 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5
Beta Version - All weather systems in the area: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
USA - Tropical Storm ELSA update Fri, 09 Jul 2021 04:00

  • After crossing eastern States, Tropical Storm ELISA has reached Virginia, and on 9 July at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located about 80 km east of Richmond City (Virginia), and 150 km south-east of Washington DC, with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h.
  • According to media and national authorities (FEMA), one person died in Florida, whilst a tornado event affected parts of Georgia. Several individuals remain evacuated across five shelters in Florida.
  • ELSA is forecast to move north-eastwards, reaching the Atlantic Ocean in the morning of 9 July, passing east of  New Jersey and New York Cities, as a Tropical Storm. In the early morning of 10 July, it could reach the coast of south-eastern Canada. 
  • A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for coastal areas from northern Virginia to Massachusetts. Flood warnings have been issued for areas on central and northern eastern coast. In 9-10 July, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over most of the eastern USA coast.
USA - Tropical Storm ELSA, update (ECHO 08 Jul 2021)Thu, 08 Jul 2021 15:21

  • After passing over the northern Florida Peninsula, Tropical Storm ELSA is moving northeastwards over land, and on 8 July at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located about 120 km west of Savannah City (coastal Georgia), with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h.
  • According to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), 226 individuals have been displaced to 20 evacuation shelters across Florida.
  • On 8 June, ELSA is forecast to move northwards, over the eastern coast of the USA, as a Tropical Storm. In the morning of 9 June, it could enter the Atlantic Ocean, passing close to New Jersey and New York City. 
  • A Tropical Storm warning is in effect for coastal areas from central Atlanta to New Jersey. Over the next 24 hours, moderate to heavy rain and strong winds are forecast over most of the eastern States, including Georgia, North- and South Carolina. In Georgia, tornado events could affect south-eastern areas of the State. 
USA - Hurricane ELSA update (ECHO 07 Jul 2021)Wed, 07 Jul 2021 15:54

  • Hurricane ELSA has intensified to Category 1 as it moves northwards over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, close to the western coast of Florida. On 7 July at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located about 50 km west of Bradenton City, and 100 km south-west of Tampa City, with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h. 
  • ELSA is forecast to downgrade to a Tropical Storm as it moves northwards. It is expected to make landfall in an area near Cedar Key City (north-western Florida), with maximum sustained winds up to 110 km/h. After that, ELSA is expected to move inland, crossing southern Georgia on the morning of 8 July. States of emergencies have been issued for counties in Florida and Georgia.
  • A storm surge warning is in effect for most of the western coast of Florida, a hurricane warning is valid for the northern and central western coast of Florida, while a tropical storm warning has been issued for most of the western coast of Florida, coastal Georgia and South Carolina. Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast over the Florida Peninsula, Georgia and South Carolina, while storm surge could affect coastal areas of these States.
Cuba, USA - Tropical Storm ELSA update (ECHO 06 Jul 2021)Tue, 06 Jul 2021 15:45

  • After making landfall over central southern Cuba and passing east of Havana, Tropical Storm ELSA has reached the Straits of Florida. On 6 June, at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located 30 km north of Havana, and 120 km south of Florida Keys Islands (USA). 
  • Heavy rain, strong winds, storm surge were reported across central and western Cuba, where 180,000 people had been preventively evacuated. 
  • ELSA is forecast to move northwards over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, close to the western coast of Florida. It is expected to make landfall as a tropical depression in the midday of 7 July in an area close to Cedar Key (north-west coast of Florida). A state of emergency has been issued for 15 Counties in Florida, ahead of Tropical Storm ELSA.
  • A storm surge warning has been issued for the western coast of Florida, while Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the southern and northern coast of central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the western coast of Florida.
  • On 6-7 July, heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge are forecast over central and western Cuba and Florida.
The Caribbean - Hurricane ELSA (ECHO 05 Jul 2021)Mon, 05 Jul 2021 16:41

  • The passage of ELSA over the Windward Islands, south-western Dominican Republic and south-western Haiti on 2-5 June, has caused fatalities and damage. 
  • According to the  Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDMA) and media, two people died in the Dominican Republic and one in Saint Lucia. In Barbados, about 600 houses have been damaged, while 20 residents were displaced to evacuation centers. Several towns in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines remain isolated. Emergency shelters have been opened in Haiti and 300 volunteers have been mobilised in the Grand-Sud and the Bas-Nord'Ouest, as reported by UN OCHA.
  • ELSA is moving north-west over the Caribbean Sea, close to the southern coast of Cuba. Up to 180,000 people have been evacuated in Cuba, as ELSA is expected to make landfall in the midday of 5 July, over south-eastern Matanzas Province.
  • A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cienfuegos and Matanzas Provinces of Cuba and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern and northern coast of central Cuba, and Florida Keys (USA).
The Caribbean - Tropical Storm ELSA (ECHO 02 Jul 2021)Fri, 02 Jul 2021 15:33

  • Tropical Storm ELSA is moving northwest over the central Atlantic Ocean approaching the Lesser Antilles. On 2 July at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 270 km north-east the south-eastern coast of Barbados, with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h.
  • ELSA is forecast to pass over Windward Islands on late 2 July, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on 2-3 July, and pass close to the southern coast of Haiti and Dominican Republic on 3 July. After that, by 4 July, ELSA will move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the Windward and the southern Leeward Islands, Haiti, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. 
Detailed event map. European Union, 2021. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (36), (1), INFORM (2), WMO (1),