Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21
in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe
30 Jun 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Saint Lucia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (30 Jun 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.5 m 76 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 1.3 m 414 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

94 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Jun 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSaint Lucia87 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Saint Lucia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Jun 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPanama, Venezuela7,255
+
Venezuela6,306 
Panama949 
100-250 mmSaint Lucia, Costa Rica, Venezuela, Panama, Colombia127,205
+
Saint Lucia04 
Costa Rica31,039 
Colombia3,001 
Venezuela56,946 
Panama36,212 
50-100 mmUnited States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Martinique, Saint Lucia, El Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama3,222,180
+
United States351,430 
Dominican Republic60,433 
Haiti9,280 
Puerto Rico01 
Dominica8,834 
Guatemala626 
Martinique221,097 
Saint Lucia132,014 
El Salvador11,441 
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines34,541 
Barbados35,661 
Costa Rica715,078 
Colombia382,306 
Venezuela291,842 
Trinidad and Tobago32,852 
Panama934,737 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 30 Jun 2021 00:00 304 130 thousand
- - - United States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Puerto Rico, Dominica, Guatemala, Martinique, Saint Lucia, El Salvador, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Costa Rica, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Jun 2021 00:00 UTC