Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELSA-21 in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe from 30 Jun 2021 21:00 UTC to 09 Jul 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21

in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe

02 Jul 2021 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Cuba, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	101 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (03 Jul 00:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	101 km/h	0.6 m	57 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	1.0 m	553 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 630 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Cuba, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados	627,251	+
	Cuba	47,381
	Martinique	76,556
	Saint Lucia	184,999
	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	34,099
	Barbados	284,214

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	30 Jun 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	01 Jul 2021 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	01 Jul 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	01 Jul 2021 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	01 Jul 2021 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	02 Jul 2021 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	02 Jul 2021 06:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Barbados
8	02 Jul 2021 12:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	Cuba, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras	217,594	+
	Cuba	5,014
	Haiti	9,600
	Jamaica	105,780
	Honduras	97,199
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana	10,558,218	+
	United States	02
	Cuba	166,873
	Cayman Islands	707
	Dominican Republic	4,477,438
	Haiti	451,136
	Jamaica	378,261
	Honduras	2,126,985
	El Salvador	246,436
	Nicaragua	229,135
	Saint Lucia	18,692
	Colombia	896,144
	Venezuela	422,292
	Costa Rica	329,425
	Panama	805,109
	Guyana	9,576

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	30 Jun 2021 18:00	150	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
2	01 Jul 2021 00:00	166	-		-	-	-	-	-	Honduras, Venezuela
3	01 Jul 2021 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	01 Jul 2021 12:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	01 Jul 2021 18:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	02 Jul 2021 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	02 Jul 2021 06:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	02 Jul 2021 12:00	237	220 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Saint Lucia, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Jul 2021 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.