Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELSA-21 in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe from 30 Jun 2021 21:00 UTC to 09 Jul 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELSA-21

in Barbados, Saint Lucia, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Guadeloupe

01 Jul 2021 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELSA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (01 Jul 02:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.7 m	166 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	1.0 m	553 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 1000 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados	996,560	+
	Dominica	57,705
	Martinique	394,134
	Saint Lucia	184,999
	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	75,507
	Barbados	284,214

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	30 Jun 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	01 Jul 2021 00:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	Dominica, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama	652,244	+
	Trinidad and Tobago	549,151
	Venezuela	115
	Costa Rica	64,945
	Panama	38,031
50-100 mm	United States, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Belize, Honduras, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Nicaragua, Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana	10,287,718	+
	United States	203,277
	Bahamas	47
	Dominican Republic	4,251,384
	Puerto Rico	22,419
	Belize	20,645
	Honduras	16,909
	Martinique	2,763
	Saint Lucia	184,999
	Barbados	284,214
	Nicaragua	25
	Colombia	548,076
	Trinidad and Tobago	745,322
	Venezuela	2,370,558
	Costa Rica	198,016
	Panama	1,428,903
	Guyana	10,153

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	30 Jun 2021 18:00	150	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
	2	01 Jul 2021 00:00	193	650 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Belize, Honduras, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Nicaragua, Colombia, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Panama, Guyana

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.