Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAINE-22
Off-shore
04 Oct 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (04 Oct 21:30 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 72 km/h 0.2 m 62 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 79 km/h 0.4 m 331 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

79 km/h

Up to 70 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico74,734 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Oct 2022 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 04 Oct 2022 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 04 Oct 2022 06:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 04 Oct 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Oct 2022 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico453,040 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico24,649,825
+
United States13 
Mexico24,649,812 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Oct 2022 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 04 Oct 2022 00:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 04 Oct 2022 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 04 Oct 2022 12:00 150 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Oct 2022 18:00 278 450 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Oct 2022 21:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Oct 2022 21:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2022 21:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2022 19:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2022 19:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2022 21:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
04 Oct 2022 18:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 19:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 19:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 The Muirlands United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Azure Vista United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Mission Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Roseville United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Loma Portal United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 San Diego United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Coronado United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Boal United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:00 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 19:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 19:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 20:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 19:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 San Buenaventura United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Hollywood By The Sea United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Channel Islands Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:15 Oxnard United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:00 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Clifton United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 San Pedro United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Wilmington United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Signal Hill United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Surfside United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Seal Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:30 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
04 Oct 2022 18:45 Erendria Mexico  0.1
04 Oct 2022 19:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1