Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAINE-22 Off-shore from 03 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAINE-22

Off-shore

04 Oct 2022 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	43 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (04 Oct 09:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	43 km/h	0.4 m	132 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	79 km/h	0.4 m	331 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

79 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	00	+

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	03 Oct 2022 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Oct 2022 00:00	47	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	04 Oct 2022 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	40,514
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico	30,298,638	+
	United States	884
	Mexico	30,297,753

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	03 Oct 2022 18:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Oct 2022 00:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	04 Oct 2022 06:00	308	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Oct 2022 09:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Oct 2022 09:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.4
	04 Oct 2022 09:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2022 09:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 08:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 08:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 07:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 07:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 09:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 09:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 09:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 07:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 07:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 07:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 10:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 10:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:45	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 07:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 11:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 07:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 10:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 08:45	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:15	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 09:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 12:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 06:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.