Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAINE-22
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 052043
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

Paine has been devoid of organized deep convection for about
18 hours, and it now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds. Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition
of a tropical cyclone, and the system has become post-tropical.
The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is based on
recent ASCAT data. Strong shear and less favorable thermodynamic
conditions are expected to cause additional weakening over the next
day or so. The global model guidance indicates that the remnant low
will degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.

Now that Paine has become vertically shallow, it has turned
west-northwestward. A continued slow west-northwestward to westward
motion within the low-level flow should continue until dissipation
occurs. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward
and it lies along the southern side of the guidance envelope.

This is the last NHC forecast advisory on Paine. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 052041
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

...PAINE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine
was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over
the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected
to dissipate within a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Paine. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 052040
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
2100 UTC WED OCT 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 114.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PAINE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.6N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.8N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.0N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.1N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.2N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 114.4W.
05OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 884 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 050844
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

The satellite presentation of Paine has degraded during the past
several hours. Apart from one small burst of convection being
sheared away from the center, the cyclone is generally just a
low-level circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen and
the initial intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 35 kt.
Global models indicate that moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear
and increasingly dry mid-level air will prevent Paine from
intensifying in the future. Simulated satellite imagery from these
models also suggests that little or no new deep, organized
convection is likely to form. The official forecast now shows Paine
becoming a remnant low within 12 hours.

Paine is passing just east of Clarion Island while moving northwest
at about 4 kt. This motion is expected to gradually turn to the
west-northwest and west today as the shallow vortex is steered by
the low-level winds. The NHC track prediction is shifted slightly
south of the previous forecast track and near the center of the
model guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 18.3N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 18.8N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 19.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 050841
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 05 2022

...PAINE CLOSE TO BECOMING POST-TROPICAL...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 114.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 114.3 West. Paine is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general
motion should continue through the morning. Later today, Paine is
expected to gradually turn to the west with a slight increase in
forward speed on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected in the next
couple of days and Paine should become a remnant low later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 050841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
0900 UTC WED OCT 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 15SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 114.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.8N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 113.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 113.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.5N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.8N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.0N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.1N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.2N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 114.0W.
05OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 906 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 050251
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

During the past few hours, convection associated with Paine has
decreased significantly, as most of the cold cloud tops near the
center are currently comprised of cirrus debris. This decrease has
not yet affected the various satellite intensity estimates, which
remain in the 35-40 kt range. The initial intensity is thus held
at 40 kt, but this could be generous.

The window of opportunity for Paine to strengthen is just about
closed. The cyclone is starting to encounter increasing westerly
vertical wind shear, and it is embedded in a dry air mass that may
make it difficult for the convection to re-develop. Indeed,
simulated satellite imagery from the latest GFS run suggests the
possibility that the convection may not return even at the normal
diurnal maximum in about 12 h. The intensity forecast calls for
gradual weakening, with the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low
between 24-36 h and dissipating completely between 60-72 h. Both
of these events could happen earlier if the convection does not
re-develop.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 325/5 kt. This motion
should persist for the next 12 h or so. After that, a slow motion
toward the west-northwest and west is anticipated as the weakening
Paine becomes increasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level
flow. The new official forecast is basically an update of the
previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 19.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 19.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 050250
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
0300 UTC WED OCT 05 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 114.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 15SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 114.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 114.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 113.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 113.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.3N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.0N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.2N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.2N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 113.4W.
04OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND
052200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 042036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

...PAINE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 113.3W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 113.3 West. Paine is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through early Wednesday. A turn toward the
west is expected by late Wednesday, and this motion should continue
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight.
Weakening should begin on Wednesday, and Paine is forecast to become
a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 042036
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
2100 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 0SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 113.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 113.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 112.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 112.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.1N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 18.9N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.2N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.4N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 113.1W.
04OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 952 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND
051600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 041445
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Deep convection continues to burst around the western portion of
Paine's circulation. Infrared and early-light visible satellite
imagery suggests that there has been some increase in convective
banding, and that the center is slightly more embedded within the
colder cloud tops. Despite the slight increase in organization,
subjective and objective Dvorak classifications have not changed
much and still support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Hopefully
scatterometer data will provide additional information on the size
and intensity of Paine this afternoon.

Paine still has a very brief window of opportunity in which to
intensify. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low today,
but is expected to increase significantly tonight and Wednesday.
Therefore, some slight strengthening is predicted, followed by
gradual weakening due to the unfavorable upper-level environment
and an increasing dry mid-level air mass. Paine is expected to
become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and dissipate around day 3.

The cyclone is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. Paine should
continue northwestward for the 24-36 hours around the western
side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a bend to the
west-northwest and west is predicted as Paine becomes increasingly
shallow and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies near the simple consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 041445
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

...PAINE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN
INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 113.0W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 113.0 West. Paine is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening is expected
to begin tonight, with Paine degenerating into a remnant low in a
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 041444
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
1500 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 112.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 112.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.5N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.3N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 18.7N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.0N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.1N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.2N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 112.7W.
04OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND
051000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (ORLENE) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PHNC).
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 040842
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

Paine is holding steady as a tropical storm. Satellite imagery has
shown a few deep convective bursts near the low-level circulation
overnight, which is now tucked underneath some cold cloud tops.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from T2.0/30 kt
and T2.5/35 kt and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

There is a brief window where environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for some additional slight strengthening. Global
models suggest the deep-layer vertical wind shear will remain low
for the next 6-12 hours as Paine moves over warm waters. Beyond
that time frame, the shear is expected to increase significantly
which will likely force the surrounding dry mid-level humidities
into the circulation and induce a weakening trend. Simulated
satellite imagery from both GFS and ECMWF suggest Paine will be a
remnant low in a couple of days. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory, but now shows Paine becoming a
remnant low by 48 h.

The cyclone is moving northwestward at about 5 kt towards a weakness
in the ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to
continue for the next day or so until the Paine weakens and turns
westward in the low-level flow. There is still some spread in the
model guidance which seems largely linked to the depth of the
circulation and when it is expected to make the turn to the west.
The latest official track forecast is shifted south of the previous
prediction but still north of much of model guidance, excluding the
ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 18.7N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 19.1N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0600Z 19.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 040839
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022

...PAINE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 112.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 112.6 West. Paine is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a
gradual turn toward the west on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible early today, but
weakening is expected to begin by tonight, with Paine degenerating
into a remnant low in a couple of days.

Paine is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 040839
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
0900 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.6W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.7N 114.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.1N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.2N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI



>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 112.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.2N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.7N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.3N 115.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 112.3W.
04OCT22. TROPICAL STORM 17E (PAINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1021
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (ORLENE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 040239
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

The structure of Paine this evening appears to be holding steady,
with deep convective cloud tops between -70 to -80 C pulsing
primarily to the east of the well-defined low-level center. While
deep-layer vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is
currently low (under 10 kt), the shear below this layer appears to
be higher, and this is likely what is resulting in the current
sheared appearance on satellite. Subjective Dvorak numbers from both
TAFB and SAB were CI 2.0/30-kt at 0000 UTC, while UW-CIMSS ADT was a
bit higher at T2.5/35-kt. The initial intensity is held at 35-kt in
deference to the earlier ASCAT data and higher ADT estimate.

The regional hurricane guidance suggests the environmental mid-level
shear will continue, and the deep-layer shear is expected to
increase markedly after 24 hours. In addition, the tropical cyclone
is embedded in a dry mid-level environment (sub 50 percent) which
should also prevent significant convective organization in the
short-term. Still, the 12 hour forecast provides an opportunity for
the storm to intensify a bit during the diurnal convective maximum.
However, Paine's intensification is likely to be short-lived, with
gradual weakening expected thereafter as shear increases and the
thermodynamic environment begins to decline. The simulated IR
imagery from the ECWMF and HWRF models suggest convection will
subside near the cyclone in the 48-60 hour mark, and the latest
forecast makes Paine a remnant low by the 60 h mark. The intensity
forecast largely follows the latest consensus aids, aside from being
a bit higher in 12 h, similar to the LGEM guidance.

The initial motion remains off to the north-northwest estimated at
335/5 kt. The cyclone is currently feeling a mid-level weakness in
the ridge to its north which should allow the system to gain more
latitude in the short-term while it remains convectively coupled.
However by 36-48 hours, this convective activity should wane,
leaving Paine to be steered more by the low-level trade winds,
generally westward. The track guidance this cycle is in two camps,
with the ECMWF and regional hurricane models (HWRF/HMON) faster to
the north, while the GFS and Canadian, which do not have a good
current representation of Paine, are slower and turn the cyclone to
the west earlier. The track forecast follows closer to the ECMWF and
the HFIP corrected consensus approach, which leans towards a
somewhat faster and more poleward motion for the first 48 hours of
the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 16.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 17.2N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 18.0N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 18.7N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 19.3N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 19.3N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 040235
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...PAINE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 112.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 112.3 West. Paine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general
northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday
night, followed by a gradual turn westward on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight, but
weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday with Paine degenerating
into a remnant low by the middle portion of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 040235
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
0300 UTC TUE OCT 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.2N 112.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N 113.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.3N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.3N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 112.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 032037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has been producing convection for the
better part of the last 18 to 24 hours, though it has been somewhat
sheared off to the west of the low-level circulation. CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 1.5, respectively, and recently the
convection has built slightly closer to the center. An earlier
AMSR2 microwave pass from 03/0913 UTC showed improved banding
structure compared to yesterday. A 03/1638 UTC ASCAT-B pass shows a
well-defined closed circulation, with wind vectors that support
maximum sustained winds near 35 kt. On this basis, the disturbance
is upgraded to Tropical Storm Paine. The ASCAT data indicates that
Paine is a small cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending
outward only about 30 n mi from the center.

Paine is located in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear
and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, relatively dry mid-level
air is present over this portion of the Pacific. The dry air should
limit significant strengthening over the first 24 to 36 hours,
while the wind shear remains moderate. Beyond 36 hours, wind shear
increases further and the mid-level air becomes even drier. This
should lead to weakening, and by 60 hours, Paine is likely to lose
all of its deep convection and become a remnant low.

The initial motion is 345/5 kt. The cyclone should continue on a
similar heading for the next couple of days. A mid-level ridge
located to the north of Paine after that time should induce a
gradual turn to the west. The cyclone will also lose its convection
at around that time, with the shallow remnant low moving westward
with the trade wind flow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 15.9N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 16.4N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 17.3N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 18.1N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 18.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 18.8N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 032033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAINE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 112.0W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 112.0 West. Paine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwest
or north-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest and west
on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through Tuesday.
Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 032033
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM PAINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172022
2100 UTC MON OCT 03 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 112.0W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 112.0W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.4N 112.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 112.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 113.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.8N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN

>