Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAINE-22 Off-shore from 03 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAINE-22

Off-shore

03 Oct 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Oct 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	90 km/h	0.4 m	172 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	346 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	2,036

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	03 Oct 2022 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
	2	03 Oct 2022 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	80,938
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico	873,018	+
	United States	33
	Mexico	872,985

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	03 Oct 2022 00:00	195	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
	2	03 Oct 2022 12:00	426	80 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Oct 2022 22:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2022 21:45	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Caimanero	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 15:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 15:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 15:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 22:15	San Felipe	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 16:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 17:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 15:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:30	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 20:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 20:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 23:15	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 19:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 19:45	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 20:45	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 18:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 18:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 19:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 18:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 23:45	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 23:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 19:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 20:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 20:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 17:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 00:00	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 00:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 17:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 23:15	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 20:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 21:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 19:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 17:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 19:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 00:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 19:30	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 19:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.