Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAINE-22 Off-shore from 03 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 05 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAINE-22

Off-shore

03 Oct 2022 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	112 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (03 Oct 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	112 km/h	0.3 m	195 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	346 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

Up to 5 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	5,447

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	03 Oct 2022 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	776,282
50-100 mm	Mexico	1,088,870

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	03 Oct 2022 00:00	446	780 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Oct 2022 09:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 01:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 01:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 08:45	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 02:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 02:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 02:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 08:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 08:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 07:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 01:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 01:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 01:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 08:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 08:45	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 08:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 10:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 10:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 02:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 04:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 04:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 03:15	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 03:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 02:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 05:30	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 05:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 00:45	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 00:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 00:45	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 04:15	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 04:15	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 02:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 02:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 02:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 01:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 01:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 01:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 09:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 09:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 04:45	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 07:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 02:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 06:30	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 04:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 00:45	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 01:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 01:45	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 01:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 03:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 11:45	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 10:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 02:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.