Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

04 Oct 2020 18 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	122 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (05 Oct 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	122 km/h	0.4 m	195 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	212 km/h	0.5 m	538 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2020 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2020 18:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Oct 2020 00:00	194	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2020 06:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	03 Oct 2020 12:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	03 Oct 2020 18:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	04 Oct 2020 00:00	184	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	04 Oct 2020 06:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	04 Oct 2020 12:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	04 Oct 2020 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

538 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2020 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	350	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	259	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	369	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	388	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	236	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	226	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	215	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	271	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2020 18:00	244	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Oct 2020 00:00	185	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2020 06:00	187	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	03 Oct 2020 12:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	03 Oct 2020 18:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	04 Oct 2020 00:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	04 Oct 2020 06:00	207	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	04 Oct 2020 12:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	04 Oct 2020 18:00	300	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Desembarcadero de Miller, Mexico. This height is estimated for 05 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Oct 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Oct 2020 03:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.4
	05 Oct 2020 19:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.4
	05 Oct 2020 12:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.4
	06 Oct 2020 07:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	06 Oct 2020 23:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 13:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 17:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 08:45	Chola	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 09:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 09:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 03:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Chamela	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 08:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 09:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 09:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 09:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 22:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 10:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 20:00	Florida	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 20:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 20:00	Barron	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 09:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 09:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 18:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.3
	07 Oct 2020 18:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.3
	07 Oct 2020 18:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 09:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 09:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 09:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 09:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 02:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 08:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 08:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 01:15	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 01:15	El Tomale	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 01:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 01:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 20:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 05:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 20:30	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 08:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 19:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 19:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 19:45	La Puerta	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 22:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 19:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 19:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 19:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 19:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 21:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 21:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 19:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 19:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 19:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 10:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 10:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 10:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 16:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 08:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 08:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 08:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.3
	07 Oct 2020 07:00	Altata	Mexico	0.3
	06 Oct 2020 21:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 02:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 06:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 02:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	07 Oct 2020 08:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 08:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 08:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 06:30	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 07:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:30	Corrales	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:30	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:30	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:45	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 09:45	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 09:45	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 09:45	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 09:45	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:45	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 01:00	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:15	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:15	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:15	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 08:45	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 09:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 07:15	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:30	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:30	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 08:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:45	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 20:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:15	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 21:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:45	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:45	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.2
	06 Oct 2020 19:00	Maruata	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	07 Oct 2020 07:45	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.