Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

03 Oct 2020 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	212 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Oct 15:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	212 km/h	0.4 m	187 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	212 km/h	0.5 m	538 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2020 18:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Oct 2020 00:00	194	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2020 06:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

538 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	350	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	259	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	369	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	388	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	236	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	226	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	215	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	271	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	02 Oct 2020 18:00	244	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	03 Oct 2020 00:00	185	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	03 Oct 2020 06:00	400	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Desembarcadero de Miller, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2020 15:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Oct 2020 15:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2020 16:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2020 09:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 09:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 01:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 01:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 01:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 09:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 08:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 08:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 12:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 08:45	Chola	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 19:15	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 19:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 00:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 00:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 01:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 09:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 23:15	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 23:15	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 23:15	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 23:15	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 23:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 19:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 10:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 10:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 06:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 02:15	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 03:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 13:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 06:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 13:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 10:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 10:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 10:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 11:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 11:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 20:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:00	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:00	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 23:30	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 23:30	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 08:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 20:45	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 18:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 09:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:15	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 03:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 13:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 13:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 13:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 21:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 08:45	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:45	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:45	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 22:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 23:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 08:30	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 03:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 03:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 03:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 03:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 10:45	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 01:15	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 01:15	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 21:30	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 21:30	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 22:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 22:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 12:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 12:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 14:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 07:30	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 08:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 07:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.