Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

02 Oct 2020 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	209 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Oct 09:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	209 km/h	0.4 m	271 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	212 km/h	0.5 m	538 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	191	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

538 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	350	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	259	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	369	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	388	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	236	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	226	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	212	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	215	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	586	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2020 09:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Oct 2020 09:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2020 05:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2020 15:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 05:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 09:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	02 Oct 2020 12:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 02:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 02:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 02:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.3
	02 Oct 2020 22:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.3
	02 Oct 2020 22:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 05:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 05:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 09:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 09:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 16:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 06:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:30	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 03:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 02:30	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 10:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 10:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 16:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 16:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 16:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 13:30	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 09:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:45	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:45	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:45	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 02:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 02:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 11:30	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:45	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 08:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 08:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 08:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 02:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 14:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 14:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 06:30	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:30	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:45	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:45	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 03:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:15	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:15	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 01:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 22:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 20:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 00:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 08:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 04:45	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 23:30	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 06:30	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 22:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 04:15	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 12:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 12:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 17:30	Corrales	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 17:30	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:30	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 01:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 21:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 11:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 11:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 02:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 00:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 07:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 18:45	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 18:45	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 01:15	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 00:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 00:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 10:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 01:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:15	Maruata	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 19:30	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 07:45	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.