Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

30 Sep 2020 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	97 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (01 Oct 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	97 km/h	0.4 m	201 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	212 km/h	0.5 m	538 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

212 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	350	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	259	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	369	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	388	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	461	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Oct 2020 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Oct 2020 08:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	01 Oct 2020 01:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	01 Oct 2020 09:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	30 Sep 2020 19:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 19:45	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 23:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 23:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 07:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 08:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 19:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 19:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 13:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 00:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 00:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 08:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 08:45	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 21:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 20:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 20:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 20:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:30	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:30	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 10:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 14:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 21:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 19:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 19:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 20:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 20:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 20:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 21:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 22:45	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 00:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 08:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 20:30	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	01 Oct 2020 09:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 03:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 03:30	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 03:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 21:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 08:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 08:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:30	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 22:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 22:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 22:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 22:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:15	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:15	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 21:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 00:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 09:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 21:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 20:45	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 08:45	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 22:30	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 20:45	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 20:45	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 20:45	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 10:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 08:45	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	01 Oct 2020 00:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Sep 2020 23:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.