Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for RAYMOND-19 in Mexico from 15 Nov 2019 03:00 UTC to 17 Nov 2019 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19

in Mexico

16 Nov 2019 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	86 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (16 Nov 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	86 km/h	0.2 m	145 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	0.2 m	371 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	02

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Nov 2019 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Nov 2019 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Nov 2019 12:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	15 Nov 2019 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	16 Nov 2019 00:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	16 Nov 2019 06:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	3,416
50-100 mm	Mexico	152,226

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Nov 2019 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Nov 2019 06:00	128	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Nov 2019 12:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Nov 2019 18:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	16 Nov 2019 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	16 Nov 2019 06:00	230	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Cachoana, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Nov 2019 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	16 Nov 2019 06:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 08:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 08:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:15	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 08:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 08:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 08:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 06:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 06:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 06:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 06:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 08:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:15	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	16 Nov 2019 09:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.