Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
15 Nov 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (15 Nov 10:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.1 m 128 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 97 km/h 0.2 m 371 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

97 km/h

Up to 5 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico5,356 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico37,455 
50-100 mmMexico188,657 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 360 40 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Conejo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Nov 2019 10:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Nov 2019 10:30 Conejo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 10:00 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 06:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 06:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 06:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 10:00 Salinas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 10:00 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 09:45 Salmoral Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 09:45 Veracruz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 11:45 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 11:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 11:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 11:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 09:45 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 06:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 06:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 08:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 08:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 08:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 11:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1