Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
15 Nov 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (15 Nov 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.1 m 50 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 97 km/h 0.2 m 371 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 6 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico6,420 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico119,348 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 332 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Anton Lizardo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15 Nov 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Nov 2019 02:00 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 02:00 Salinas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 02:00 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:45 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:45 Salmoral Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 04:45 Yarborough United States  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:45 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:45 Conejo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:30 La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:30 Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:30 Nautla Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 04:45 Buena Vista United States  0.1
15 Nov 2019 01:30 Veracruz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 02:45 Tamiahua Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 02:45 Laja Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 06:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 06:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1