Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19
in Mexico
15 Nov 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (16 Nov 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 86 km/h 0.2 m 145 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 97 km/h 0.2 m 371 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

97 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico16 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 86 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Nov 2019 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 15 Nov 2019 06:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 15 Nov 2019 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Nov 2019 18:00 325 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Agua del Coyote, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Nov 2019 00:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 23:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 23:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Loreto Mexico  0.2
15 Nov 2019 20:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Salinas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:45 Conejo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:30 Veracruz Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 19:30 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 23:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
15 Nov 2019 20:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
16 Nov 2019 00:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1