Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIO-19 in Mexico, from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 23 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIO-19

in Mexico,

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	137 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (21 Sep 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	137 km/h	0.3 m	147 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	50 km/h	0.0 m	397 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	1,088

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 Sep 2019 06:00	166	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
9	19 Sep 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
10	19 Sep 2019 18:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	20 Sep 2019 00:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
12	20 Sep 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	20 Sep 2019 12:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	20 Sep 2019 18:00	130	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
15	21 Sep 2019 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
16	21 Sep 2019 06:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
17	21 Sep 2019 12:00	137	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

397 mm

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	14,441
50-100 mm	Mexico	97,261

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	213	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	381	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	222	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	319	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	203	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	246	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	19 Sep 2019 06:00	241	390 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
9	19 Sep 2019 12:00	275	500 thousand				-	-	-	Mexico
10	19 Sep 2019 18:00	143	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	20 Sep 2019 00:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	20 Sep 2019 06:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	20 Sep 2019 12:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	20 Sep 2019 18:00	290	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
15	21 Sep 2019 00:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
16	21 Sep 2019 06:00	118	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
17	21 Sep 2019 12:00	465	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Agua del Coyote, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Sep 2019 13:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 14:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 14:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 13:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:15	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:45	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.