Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIO-19 in Mexico, from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 23 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIO-19

in Mexico,

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	148 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (19 Sep 04:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	148 km/h	0.3 m	246 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	50 km/h	0.0 m	397 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	310,910

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	148	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

397 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Mexico	65,094
100-250 mm	Mexico	1,260,270
50-100 mm	Mexico	805,404

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	209	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	213	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	381	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	222	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	319	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	203	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	805	1.3 million				-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Agua del Coyote, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2019 04:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Sep 2019 04:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.3
	19 Sep 2019 04:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.3
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 06:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 06:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 06:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 00:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 05:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 05:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 05:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 06:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 04:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 00:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	19 Sep 2019 01:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.