Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIO-19
in Mexico,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-23 15:35

WTPN32 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.0N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.9N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 114.4W.
23SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
509 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 8 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-23 14:51

WTPZ44 KNHC 231448
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019

MARIO'S QUEST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER. THE LOW HAS PRODUCED
ONLY A FEW SMALL AREAS OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION DURING THE LAST
DAY OR SO, BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE, MARIO IS NOW A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS
THE LAST ADVISORY.

THE REMNANT LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT SLOWLY SPINS DOWN.
IT WILL LIKELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 25.0N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-23 14:50

WTPZ34 KNHC 231447
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019

...GAME OVER...
...MARIO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 114.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH
(13 KM/H). MARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-23 14:48

WTPZ24 KNHC 231446
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 114.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 114.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-23 09:38

WTPN32 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 23.9N 113.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 113.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.5N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.5N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 113.6W.
23SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
565 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-23 08:33

WTPZ44 KNHC 230830
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019

MARIO EARNED AN EXTRA LIFE YESTERDAY BUT HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED ITS
TIME LIMIT. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EARLIER BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED, WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF SMALL DISORGANIZED
BLOBS LEFT OVER. IF THERE IS NO FURTHER CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT,
MARIO WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING COOL WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIO TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN A
DAY OR SO. THE LATEST INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, TILTED TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH
GENERALLY DO WELL AT THIS STAGE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIFE CYCLE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 24.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-23 08:22

WTPZ24 KNHC 230819
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 113.5W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-23 08:20

WTPZ34 KNHC 230817
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2019

...MARIO FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 113.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY,
BEFORE DISSIPATING NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MARIO SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-23 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 230357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 19.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2019 0 12.0N 19.8W 1012 17
1200UTC 23.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 67.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2019 0 27.3N 67.2W 1000 54
1200UTC 23.09.2019 12 27.8N 68.2W 997 45
0000UTC 24.09.2019 24 28.6N 68.5W 994 45
1200UTC 24.09.2019 36 30.1N 69.2W 982 51
0000UTC 25.09.2019 48 30.8N 69.0W 989 39
1200UTC 25.09.2019 60 31.4N 68.1W 991 42
0000UTC 26.09.2019 72 31.4N 66.8W 992 35
1200UTC 26.09.2019 84 31.4N 66.6W 998 49
0000UTC 27.09.2019 96 30.0N 66.6W 1000 55
1200UTC 27.09.2019 108 28.9N 65.5W 1003 42
0000UTC 28.09.2019 120 28.1N 64.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 28.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 63.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2019 0 12.8N 63.4W 1008 27
1200UTC 23.09.2019 12 13.6N 64.7W 1008 27
0000UTC 24.09.2019 24 15.1N 65.1W 1006 29
1200UTC 24.09.2019 36 16.9N 65.8W 1004 35
0000UTC 25.09.2019 48 19.2N 65.4W 1002 37
1200UTC 25.09.2019 60 21.9N 64.6W 996 46
0000UTC 26.09.2019 72 25.0N 63.5W 990 51
1200UTC 26.09.2019 84 27.7N 62.8W 986 53
0000UTC 27.09.2019 96 30.3N 61.9W 984 58
1200UTC 27.09.2019 108 32.0N 61.9W 992 42
0000UTC 28.09.2019 120 32.2N 63.1W 998 33
1200UTC 28.09.2019 132 31.2N 65.3W 1001 32
0000UTC 29.09.2019 144 29.6N 66.9W 1002 32

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 134.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2019 0 15.6N 134.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 23.09.2019 12 15.7N 135.7W 1004 29
0000UTC 24.09.2019 24 16.6N 137.1W 1001 36
1200UTC 24.09.2019 36 18.0N 137.8W 1004 36
0000UTC 25.09.2019 48 19.0N 138.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 25.09.2019 60 19.3N 139.7W 1009 24
0000UTC 26.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2019 0 23.1N 112.7W 1006 24
1200UTC 23.09.2019 12 24.3N 113.5W 1009 19
0000UTC 24.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.0N 27.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 36 12.1N 29.5W 1008 34
0000UTC 25.09.2019 48 12.8N 32.1W 1005 41
1200UTC 25.09.2019 60 13.1N 35.2W 1001 45
0000UTC 26.09.2019 72 13.9N 37.7W 995 51
1200UTC 26.09.2019 84 14.9N 40.5W 988 59
0000UTC 27.09.2019 96 16.3N 42.0W 978 59
1200UTC 27.09.2019 108 18.2N 43.2W 971 64
0000UTC 28.09.2019 120 19.8N 44.6W 965 62
1200UTC 28.09.2019 132 20.9N 45.5W 960 68
0000UTC 29.09.2019 144 22.1N 46.2W 955 70


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230357

>

2019-09-23 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 230357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 19.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2019 12.0N 19.8W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 67.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2019 27.3N 67.2W MODERATE
12UTC 23.09.2019 27.8N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 28.6N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 30.1N 69.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 30.8N 69.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 31.4N 68.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 31.4N 66.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 31.4N 66.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 30.0N 66.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 28.9N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 28.1N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 63.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2019 12.8N 63.4W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2019 13.6N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 15.1N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 16.9N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 19.2N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 21.9N 64.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 25.0N 63.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 27.7N 62.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 30.3N 61.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 32.0N 61.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 32.2N 63.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 31.2N 65.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 29.6N 66.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 134.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.6N 134.0W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.7N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 16.6N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 18.0N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 19.0N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.3N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.1N 112.7W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.3N 113.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.0N 27.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.1N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 12.8N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.1N 35.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 13.9N 37.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 14.9N 40.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 16.3N 42.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.2N 43.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 19.8N 44.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 20.9N 45.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2019 22.1N 46.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230357

>

2019-09-23 02:57

WTPN32 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 023
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 112.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 112.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.6N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.0N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.1N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 113.0W.
23SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
621 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-23 02:36

WTPZ44 KNHC 230233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED EARLIER TODAY TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER OF MARIO IS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER
ASCAT DATA THAT SHOWED A REGION OF 25-30 KT WINDS.

MARIO IS HEADED FOR COOL WATERS, AND IT SHOULD BE CROSSING THE 26 C
ISOTHERM ON EARLY MONDAY. THESE COOL WATERS AND A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE, AND MARIO
WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. ALL OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED LARGELY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE, AND NOW
SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENTER
A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT. MARIO, OR ITS REMNANTS, ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWER TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 23.4N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-23 02:34

WTPZ34 KNHC 230233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 112.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario
was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A slower north-northwest to north motion is expected
during the next day or two. The remnants of Mario are expected to
move over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a remnant
low on Monday. The low is expected to dissipate on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-23 02:34

WTPZ24 KNHC 230232
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 112.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 112.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-22 21:13

WTPZ44 KNHC 222109 CCA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

CORRECTED STATUS AT 48H (24/1800Z)

MARIO HAS MAINTAINED ITS REPRIEVE FROM DISCONTINUANCE OF
ADVISORIES, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS CONTINUES TO BARELY SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. ASSUMING THAT THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOON, THE CYCLONE
COULD DEGENERATE INTO REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 345 AT 9 KT. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 21:11

WTPZ24 KNHC 222108 CCA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

CORRECTED STATUS AT 24/1800Z

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 21:09

WTPN32 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 22.5N 112.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 112.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.0N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.3N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.5N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 112.5W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
665 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 20:42

WTPZ44 KNHC 222040
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

MARIO HAS MAINTAINED ITS REPRIEVE FROM DISCONTINUANCE OF
ADVISORIES, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS CONTINUES TO BARELY SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. ASSUMING THAT THIS CONVECTION DISSIPATES SOON, THE CYCLONE
COULD DEGENERATE INTO REMNANT LOW BY EARLY MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 345 AT 9 KT. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 20:41

WTPZ34 KNHC 222039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 112.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND MARIO SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER OVERNIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 20:41

WTPZ24 KNHC 222039
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 221555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 18.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 0 12.6N 18.9W 1012 18
0000UTC 23.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 66.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 0 25.5N 66.6W 1008 39
0000UTC 23.09.2019 12 27.2N 67.7W 1000 44
1200UTC 23.09.2019 24 27.7N 68.5W 997 45
0000UTC 24.09.2019 36 28.7N 68.9W 992 49
1200UTC 24.09.2019 48 29.9N 69.9W 977 54
0000UTC 25.09.2019 60 30.3N 70.0W 983 44
1200UTC 25.09.2019 72 30.5N 70.1W 988 41
0000UTC 26.09.2019 84 30.4N 70.1W 992 35
1200UTC 26.09.2019 96 30.4N 70.6W 993 34
0000UTC 27.09.2019 108 30.2N 70.9W 994 36
1200UTC 27.09.2019 120 28.9N 71.3W 989 49
0000UTC 28.09.2019 132 28.0N 71.0W 988 55
1200UTC 28.09.2019 144 27.8N 71.5W 991 49

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 61.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 0 12.1N 61.2W 1011 26
0000UTC 23.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 133.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 0 16.9N 133.3W 1005 31
0000UTC 23.09.2019 12 15.8N 134.5W 1005 32
1200UTC 23.09.2019 24 15.6N 136.1W 1003 29
0000UTC 24.09.2019 36 16.5N 137.4W 1000 38
1200UTC 24.09.2019 48 17.8N 138.2W 1003 39
0000UTC 25.09.2019 60 18.9N 139.3W 1007 28
1200UTC 25.09.2019 72 19.4N 140.1W 1009 28
0000UTC 26.09.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 0 28.2N 111.6W 1008 22
0000UTC 23.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 0 21.7N 111.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 23.09.2019 12 23.0N 112.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 23.09.2019 24 24.4N 113.4W 1009 19
0000UTC 24.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.4N 23.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 24 11.4N 23.0W 1009 31
0000UTC 24.09.2019 36 12.1N 26.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 24.09.2019 48 12.5N 28.9W 1000 48
0000UTC 25.09.2019 60 13.4N 31.2W 995 57
1200UTC 25.09.2019 72 14.2N 34.0W 987 62
0000UTC 26.09.2019 84 15.2N 36.6W 973 66
1200UTC 26.09.2019 96 16.2N 38.8W 957 75
0000UTC 27.09.2019 108 18.0N 40.5W 953 77
1200UTC 27.09.2019 120 20.5N 41.7W 953 81
0000UTC 28.09.2019 132 23.9N 43.5W 957 80
1200UTC 28.09.2019 144 25.7N 45.7W 958 71

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 30.4N 63.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2019 108 30.4N 63.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 27.09.2019 120 33.0N 64.4W 1005 29
0000UTC 28.09.2019 132 33.6N 66.1W 1006 32
1200UTC 28.09.2019 144 33.7N 68.7W 1007 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.0N 102.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2019 132 19.0N 102.6W 999 31
1200UTC 28.09.2019 144 15.6N 102.0W 997 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221555

>

2019-09-22 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 221555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 18.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2019 12.6N 18.9W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 66.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2019 25.5N 66.6W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2019 27.2N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 27.7N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 28.7N 68.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 29.9N 69.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 30.3N 70.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 30.5N 70.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 30.4N 70.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 30.4N 70.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 30.2N 70.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 28.9N 71.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 28.0N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 27.8N 71.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 61.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2019 12.1N 61.2W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 133.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.9N 133.3W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.8N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.6N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 16.5N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.8N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.9N 139.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.4N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2019 28.2N 111.6W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2019 21.7N 111.6W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.0N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.4N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.4N 23.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 11.4N 23.0W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2019 12.1N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.5N 28.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 13.4N 31.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 14.2N 34.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 15.2N 36.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 16.2N 38.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 18.0N 40.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 20.5N 41.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 23.9N 43.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 25.7N 45.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 30.4N 63.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2019 30.4N 63.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.09.2019 33.0N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 33.6N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 33.7N 68.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.0N 102.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2019 19.0N 102.6W MODERATE
12UTC 28.09.2019 15.6N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221555

>

2019-09-22 15:33

WTPN32 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 111.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 111.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.3N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.8N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.3N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.9N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 112.0W.
22SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
722 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-22 14:47

WTPZ44 KNHC 221444
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

AFTER BEING DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY, A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE'S
CENTER. ALTHOUGH THIS BARELY QUALIFIES THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS, ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONTINUED FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER, MARIO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
SO.

THE WEAKENING LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, AND DISSIPATE LATER THAT DAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 22.0N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 24.8N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 26.3N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 27.9N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 14:47

WTPZ34 KNHC 221444
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

...MARIO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 111.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND MARIO SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 14:46

WTPZ24 KNHC 221444
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 111.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 111.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.8N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.9N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-22 08:54

WTPZ44 KNHC 220851
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

MARIO CONTINUES TO BE A FULLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF
CONVECTION, AND IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA. WITH NO MODELS
SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION, SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECAY INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATER TODAY. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, ADJUSTED FOR LOWER INITIAL WINDS.

MARIO IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/8
KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER PACE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS
AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 21.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE

>

2019-09-22 08:52

WTPZ34 KNHC 220849
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2019

...MARIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 111.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST. MARIO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. MARIO IS THEN FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND MARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-22 08:52

WTPZ24 KNHC 220849
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 111.3W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.4N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.7N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.9N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-22 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 220355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 61.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2019 0 8.8N 61.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 22.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2019 0 23.5N 65.8W 1007 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 12 25.6N 67.1W 1004 39
0000UTC 23.09.2019 24 26.7N 67.7W 997 46
1200UTC 23.09.2019 36 27.5N 67.9W 993 51
0000UTC 24.09.2019 48 28.9N 68.2W 991 51
1200UTC 24.09.2019 60 30.4N 69.4W 983 49
0000UTC 25.09.2019 72 31.6N 68.7W 989 43
1200UTC 25.09.2019 84 32.5N 66.5W 994 39
0000UTC 26.09.2019 96 33.6N 63.5W 998 33
1200UTC 26.09.2019 108 35.3N 60.7W 1000 32
0000UTC 27.09.2019 120 36.4N 58.4W 1001 34
1200UTC 27.09.2019 132 37.8N 54.9W 1001 40
0000UTC 28.09.2019 144 38.0N 50.6W 997 43

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 132.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2019 0 17.6N 132.3W 1003 34
1200UTC 22.09.2019 12 16.6N 133.6W 1004 32
0000UTC 23.09.2019 24 15.5N 134.7W 1003 32
1200UTC 23.09.2019 36 15.3N 136.1W 1000 31
0000UTC 24.09.2019 48 16.5N 137.3W 995 46
1200UTC 24.09.2019 60 18.1N 137.9W 1002 36
0000UTC 25.09.2019 72 19.4N 139.0W 1006 30
1200UTC 25.09.2019 84 20.0N 139.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 26.09.2019 96 19.7N 140.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 26.09.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2019 0 27.2N 111.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 22.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2019 0 19.9N 110.7W 1000 30
1200UTC 22.09.2019 12 21.5N 111.8W 1003 30
0000UTC 23.09.2019 24 23.1N 112.9W 1004 26
1200UTC 23.09.2019 36 24.7N 114.0W 1007 23
0000UTC 24.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.6N 22.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 36 11.4N 23.8W 1008 26
0000UTC 24.09.2019 48 12.1N 26.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 24.09.2019 60 12.8N 28.8W 999 44
0000UTC 25.09.2019 72 13.8N 31.2W 996 50
1200UTC 25.09.2019 84 14.5N 33.8W 992 58
0000UTC 26.09.2019 96 15.0N 36.8W 982 56
1200UTC 26.09.2019 108 16.1N 39.2W 972 66
0000UTC 27.09.2019 120 17.6N 41.1W 960 75
1200UTC 27.09.2019 132 19.5N 42.7W 959 74
0000UTC 28.09.2019 144 21.3N 44.3W 963 68

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.5N 62.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2019 108 25.6N 62.4W 1007 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 120 28.0N 61.7W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.09.2019 132 29.0N 61.5W 1004 27
0000UTC 28.09.2019 144 29.6N 61.4W 1001 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.5N 100.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2019 144 18.5N 100.8W 998 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220355

>

2019-09-22 03:55

WTNT80 EGRR 220355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 61.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2019 8.8N 61.1W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2019 23.5N 65.8W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2019 25.6N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 26.7N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 27.5N 67.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 28.9N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 30.4N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 31.6N 68.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 32.5N 66.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 33.6N 63.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 35.3N 60.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 36.4N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 37.8N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 38.0N 50.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 132.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.6N 132.3W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.6N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.5N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.3N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 16.5N 137.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 18.1N 137.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 19.4N 139.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 20.0N 139.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 19.7N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 111.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2019 27.2N 111.3W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.09.2019 19.9N 110.7W WEAK
12UTC 22.09.2019 21.5N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.1N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.7N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.6N 22.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 11.4N 23.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 12.1N 26.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.8N 28.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 13.8N 31.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 14.5N 33.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 15.0N 36.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 16.1N 39.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.6N 41.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2019 19.5N 42.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 21.3N 44.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 24.5N 62.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2019 25.6N 62.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 28.0N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 29.0N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 29.6N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.5N 100.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2019 18.5N 100.8W MODERATE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220355

>

2019-09-22 02:57

WTPZ44 KNHC 220254 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

MARIO HAS BEEN A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF CONVECTION SINCE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED
MAINLY ON SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB, AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE WINDS FROM THE WINDSAT SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY THIS IS A BIT GENEROUS.

WHILE MARIO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR,
IT IS STILL OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR MASS. THUS, THE LACK OF CONVECTION IS A LITTLE
SURPRISING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 H IN ANTICIPATION OF A CONVECTIVE BURST
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. AFTER THAT
TIME, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MOVEMENT OVER COOLER WATERS SHOULD
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 H, IF NOT SOONER. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

MARIO IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 350/6
KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 H, FOLLOWED
BY A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR THE 72 H POINT. ONCE AGAIN, LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-22 02:57

WTPZ34 KNHC 220253
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...MARIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 110.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. MARIO IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON
THAT HEADING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND
MARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-22 02:56

WTPZ44 KNHC 220254
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the
last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based
mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the
possibility this is a bit generous.

While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear,
it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively
moist air mass. Thus, the lack of convection is a little
surprising. The intensity forecast will show little change in
strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst
developing near the center during the diurnal maximum. After that
time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should
inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast
to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner. The new
intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous
forecast.

Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6
kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-
northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed
by a more northward motion near the 72 h point. Once again, little
change was made to the forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-22 02:55

WTPZ24 KNHC 220253
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-21 20:43

WTPZ44 KNHC 212039 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER OF
MARIO, AND THE CLOSEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW MORE THAN 60 N MI TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE'S EXPOSED CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF THE
WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW 40 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF
FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB.

STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING MARIO IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER. BY THE TIME THE SHEAR DOES RELAX EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MARIO WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS, WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHER
WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST, AND MARIO IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS IN
CONVECTION, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MARIO COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL
SOONER THAN THAT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY NORTHWARD SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD RESUME A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MARIO WILL THEN
BE STEERED IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION FOR A FEW DAYS AFTER THAT. IT
IS STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD
REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BEFORE IT DOES SO. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS VERY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-09-21 20:43

WTPZ34 KNHC 212039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

...MARIO WEAKENING AND LACKING THUNDERSTORMS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 110.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MARIO IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THAT
HEADING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND MARIO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY, IF NOT SOONER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-21 20:42

WTPZ24 KNHC 212039
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.5W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-21 20:41

WTPZ44 KNHC 212039
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Deep convection has become even more displaced from the center of
Mario, and the closest thunderstorms are now more than 60 n mi to
the southwest of the cyclone's exposed center. The intensity of the
weakening tropical cyclone is now 40 kt, based on a blend of
Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB.

Strong easterly shear affecting Mario is not expected to decrease
much for the next day or two, and it seems unlikely that the cyclone
will be able to recover. By the time the shear does relax early next
week, Mario will be moving over much cooler waters, which should
inhibit the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Further
weakening is therefore forecast, and Mario is now expected to become
a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours. Given current trends in
convection, it's possible that Mario could become post-tropical
sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is merely an update of
the previous advisory.

The tropical storm has drifted slowly northward so far this
afternoon but should resume a north-northwestward track by tonight.
The models are still in fairly good agreement that Mario will then
be steered in that general direction for a few days after that. It
is still within the realm of possibility that the cyclone could
reach the Baja California peninsula, but it will likely become a
remnant low before it does so. Little change was made to the
official track forecast, which is very slightly east of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-21 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 211555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.1N 57.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2019 0 8.1N 57.2W 1012 24
0000UTC 22.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2019 0 21.4N 64.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 22.09.2019 12 23.6N 66.5W 1005 40
1200UTC 22.09.2019 24 25.4N 68.0W 1000 45
0000UTC 23.09.2019 36 26.0N 68.7W 991 51
1200UTC 23.09.2019 48 26.8N 68.5W 984 59
0000UTC 24.09.2019 60 28.5N 68.2W 976 60
1200UTC 24.09.2019 72 29.9N 69.4W 975 51
0000UTC 25.09.2019 84 30.2N 68.9W 976 55
1200UTC 25.09.2019 96 30.5N 67.5W 983 49
0000UTC 26.09.2019 108 30.3N 65.6W 987 40
1200UTC 26.09.2019 120 30.0N 64.2W 994 32
0000UTC 27.09.2019 132 29.7N 62.6W 996 30
1200UTC 27.09.2019 144 29.4N 61.6W 999 30

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 130.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2019 0 18.4N 130.8W 1000 40
0000UTC 22.09.2019 12 18.0N 132.4W 1002 37
1200UTC 22.09.2019 24 16.7N 133.6W 1003 32
0000UTC 23.09.2019 36 15.7N 134.9W 1002 34
1200UTC 23.09.2019 48 15.5N 136.4W 999 32
0000UTC 24.09.2019 60 16.6N 137.6W 996 44
1200UTC 24.09.2019 72 18.1N 138.2W 1001 38
0000UTC 25.09.2019 84 19.6N 139.2W 1005 33
1200UTC 25.09.2019 96 20.4N 140.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 26.09.2019 108 20.6N 141.6W 1008 28
1200UTC 26.09.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2019 0 25.2N 110.7W 1005 31
0000UTC 22.09.2019 12 27.0N 113.2W 1005 27
1200UTC 22.09.2019 24 28.5N 112.3W 1007 19
0000UTC 23.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2019 0 19.0N 110.4W 998 38
0000UTC 22.09.2019 12 19.9N 110.9W 1000 30
1200UTC 22.09.2019 24 21.3N 112.0W 1003 31
0000UTC 23.09.2019 36 22.9N 112.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 23.09.2019 48 24.7N 113.8W 1008 21
0000UTC 24.09.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 27.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 60 12.5N 27.0W 1011 29
1200UTC 24.09.2019 72 13.3N 30.0W 1007 38
0000UTC 25.09.2019 84 14.1N 32.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 25.09.2019 96 14.9N 35.4W 1004 40
0000UTC 26.09.2019 108 15.4N 38.7W 1003 36
1200UTC 26.09.2019 120 16.1N 41.1W 1000 41
0000UTC 27.09.2019 132 17.5N 42.5W 993 56
1200UTC 27.09.2019 144 19.2N 43.4W 984 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 34.0N 172.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2019 144 34.9N 171.5W 1002 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 36.6N 55.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2019 144 36.6N 55.6W 1007 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211555

>

2019-09-21 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 211555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.1N 57.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2019 8.1N 57.2W WEAK
00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2019 21.4N 64.9W WEAK
00UTC 22.09.2019 23.6N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 25.4N 68.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 26.0N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 26.8N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2019 28.5N 68.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 29.9N 69.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 30.2N 68.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 30.5N 67.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 30.3N 65.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 30.0N 64.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 29.7N 62.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 29.4N 61.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 130.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.4N 130.8W MODERATE
00UTC 22.09.2019 18.0N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.7N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.7N 134.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.5N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 16.6N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 18.1N 138.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 19.6N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 20.4N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 20.6N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2019 25.2N 110.7W WEAK
00UTC 22.09.2019 27.0N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 28.5N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.09.2019 19.0N 110.4W MODERATE
00UTC 22.09.2019 19.9N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 21.3N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 22.9N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.7N 113.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 27.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2019 12.5N 27.0W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2019 13.3N 30.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 14.1N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 14.9N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 15.4N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 16.1N 41.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.5N 42.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2019 19.2N 43.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 34.0N 172.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2019 34.9N 171.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 36.6N 55.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2019 36.6N 55.6W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211555

>

2019-09-21 14:50

WTPZ44 KNHC 211447 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIO
IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS, WHICH IS
THE RESULT OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND UW-CIMSS SATCON YIELDS AN INITIAL
WIND SPEED OF 45 KT. HOPEFULLY, ASCAT DATA WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY LATER TODAY. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR OVER MARIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MARIO HEADS TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER THAT TIME, THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS AND REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM BY 48 HOURS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND MARIO IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARIO IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330 DEGREES AT
4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. AS MARIO WEAKENS, IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS WERE A
LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, SO THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-21 14:50

WTPZ34 KNHC 211447
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...MARIO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 110.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Mario.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.5 West. Mario is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly
faster northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Mario is expected to become a
tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Socorro Island has recently reported a wind gust
to 42 mph (68 km/h) within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-21 14:49

WTPZ44 KNHC 211447
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Geostationary satellite imagery shows the low-level center of Mario
is exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass, which is
the result of strong northeasterly shear. An average of the latest
Dvorak intensity estimates, and UW-CIMSS SATCON yields an initial
wind speed of 45 kt. Hopefully, ASCAT data will provide a better
assessment of the cyclone's intensity later today. The vertical
shear over Mario is forecast to remain moderate to strong during
the next 24 hours while Mario heads toward cooler waters. This
should result in gradual weakening. After that time, the shear is
forecast to decrease but the system will be moving into a more
stable air mass and reach the 26C isotherm by 48 hours. Continued
weakening is forecast and Mario is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low in a couple of days.

Mario is progressing slowly north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at
4 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement
on a northwesterly track around the western side of a mid-level
ridge. As Mario weakens, it should turn northward and slow down
with the low-level steering flow. The latest consensus aids were a
little west of the previous track, so the latest official forecast
has been nudged in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-21 14:49

WTPZ24 KNHC 211447
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-21 10:51

WTPN32 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 110.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 110.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.8N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.3N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.7N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.6N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 110.4W.
21SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 09:01

WTPZ44 KNHC 210859 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019

MARIO HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED TONIGHT. GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NOW LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT, USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL T
AND CI NUMBERS, AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN ITS CURRENT
APPEARANCE.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONG SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING MARIO IS EXPECTED TO
LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING
INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND OVER DECREASING SSTS. THEREFORE, STEADY
WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY, AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS
PREDICTION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA AND IVCN GUIDANCE.
MARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 OR 3 DAYS WHEN IT
WILL BE OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 24 C, AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4 OVER
VERY COOL WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 350 DEGREES, AT 4 KT.
THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, FOLLOWING LORENA, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

>

2019-09-21 09:01

WTPZ44 KNHC 210859
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Mario has become quite disorganized tonight. Geostationary
satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center
is now located well to the east of the main area of deep
convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of
east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. The initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T
and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current
appearance.

Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to
lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving
into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs. Therefore, steady
weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one. This
prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance.
Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it
will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over
very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula.

The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt.
The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward
to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow.
The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were
made to the previous NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-21 09:01

WTPZ34 KNHC 210858
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...MARIO WEAKENING AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 110.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Mario.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.3 West. Mario is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Mario is
expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and a remnant low
on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-21 09:01

WTPZ24 KNHC 210858
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2019-09-21 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 210355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 6.6N 49.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2019 0 6.6N 49.7W 1013 20
1200UTC 21.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 62.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2019 0 20.0N 62.2W 999 48
1200UTC 21.09.2019 12 21.1N 65.1W 1003 47
0000UTC 22.09.2019 24 22.9N 66.6W 1005 39
1200UTC 22.09.2019 36 24.7N 67.5W 1003 43
0000UTC 23.09.2019 48 26.1N 67.5W 996 47
1200UTC 23.09.2019 60 27.4N 66.6W 986 56
0000UTC 24.09.2019 72 28.9N 65.6W 983 58
1200UTC 24.09.2019 84 30.5N 65.8W 985 50
0000UTC 25.09.2019 96 31.6N 64.7W 983 49
1200UTC 25.09.2019 108 32.7N 61.4W 988 45
0000UTC 26.09.2019 120 34.5N 57.4W 985 48
1200UTC 26.09.2019 132 36.0N 54.9W 992 35
0000UTC 27.09.2019 144 37.2N 51.8W 994 34

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 130.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2019 0 18.0N 130.7W 999 42
1200UTC 21.09.2019 12 18.6N 132.2W 1004 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 24 17.2N 133.5W 1006 27
1200UTC 22.09.2019 36 16.4N 134.6W 1006 28
0000UTC 23.09.2019 48 15.3N 135.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 23.09.2019 60 14.7N 137.5W 1005 24
0000UTC 24.09.2019 72 15.5N 138.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 24.09.2019 84 17.3N 138.2W 1007 28
0000UTC 25.09.2019 96 18.9N 139.2W 1009 27
1200UTC 25.09.2019 108 19.5N 140.2W 1010 24
0000UTC 26.09.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 110.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2019 0 23.3N 110.5W 1003 40
1200UTC 21.09.2019 12 24.8N 110.3W 1005 27
0000UTC 22.09.2019 24 27.0N 113.1W 1004 26
1200UTC 22.09.2019 36 28.4N 112.6W 1007 22
0000UTC 23.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2019 0 18.1N 110.4W 993 47
1200UTC 21.09.2019 12 18.8N 110.4W 998 40
0000UTC 22.09.2019 24 19.7N 110.9W 1000 31
1200UTC 22.09.2019 36 21.0N 111.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 23.09.2019 48 23.0N 112.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 23.09.2019 60 24.8N 113.4W 1008 19
0000UTC 24.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.0N 25.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 60 12.0N 25.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 24.09.2019 72 12.7N 27.9W 1007 35
1200UTC 24.09.2019 84 13.8N 30.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 25.09.2019 96 14.7N 32.6W 1001 47
1200UTC 25.09.2019 108 15.6N 35.4W 1000 49
0000UTC 26.09.2019 120 16.4N 37.5W 999 51
1200UTC 26.09.2019 132 17.8N 38.9W 992 57
0000UTC 27.09.2019 144 19.1N 40.6W 987 56

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.2N 171.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2019 144 34.2N 171.6W 993 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210355

>

2019-09-21 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 210355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 6.6N 49.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2019 6.6N 49.7W WEAK
12UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 62.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.0N 62.2W MODERATE
12UTC 21.09.2019 21.1N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 22.9N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 24.7N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 26.1N 67.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 27.4N 66.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2019 28.9N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 30.5N 65.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 31.6N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 32.7N 61.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 34.5N 57.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 36.0N 54.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 37.2N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 130.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 130.7W MODERATE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.6N 132.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.2N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.4N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.3N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 14.7N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 15.5N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.3N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.9N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.5N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 110.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2019 23.3N 110.5W WEAK
12UTC 21.09.2019 24.8N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 27.0N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 28.4N 112.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.1N 110.4W MODERATE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.8N 110.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 19.7N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 21.0N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.0N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.8N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.0N 25.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 12.0N 25.6W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2019 12.7N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 13.8N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 14.7N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 15.6N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 16.4N 37.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 17.8N 38.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 19.1N 40.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.2N 171.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2019 34.2N 171.6W MODERATE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210355

>

2019-09-21 03:20

WTPN32 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.1N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.3N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.8N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.3N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.0N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 110.2W.
21SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 948 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND 220400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-21 02:44

WTPZ44 KNHC 210242 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

RECENT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY FROM GOES-17 SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
OF MARIO IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
CANOPY, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED
BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55
KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS, WITH MARIO EXPECTED TO SPIN DOWN DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
TO STRONG SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER COOLER SSTS BY 48 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD BE GONE BY 72 HOURS, AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS
SHOWN BY THAT TIME, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT
ON THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/04, AS THE
CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITHOUT ANY RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE, SHOWING MARIO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF LORENA, AND IS CLOSE TO THE HCCA
AND TVCE CONSENSUS. WHILE THIS FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE
WEAKENING MARIO OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, SOME
IMPACTS THERE ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 18.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

>

2019-09-21 02:43

WTPZ44 KNHC 210242
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Recent geostationary imagery from GOES-17 suggests that the center
of Mario is located on the northeastern edge of the convective
canopy, which is consistent with the northeasterly shear analyzed
by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 55
kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The intensity guidance shows steady weakening during the next 72
hours, with Mario expected to spin down due to persistent moderate
to strong shear and a track over cooler SSTs by 48 hours. Deep
convection should be gone by 72 hours, and remnant low status is
shown by that time, with dissipation expected by 96 hours. The new
NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
on the high end of the guidance near the LGEM model.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 360/04, as the
center location has been difficult to pinpoint without any recent
microwave imagery. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous one, showing Mario moving north-northwestward and
then northwestward in the wake of Lorena, and is close to the HCCA
and TVCE consensus. While this forecast keeps the center of the
weakening Mario offshore of the Baja California peninsula, some
impacts there are still possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 18.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-21 02:42

WTPZ34 KNHC 210240
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 110.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND MARIO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2019-09-21 02:41

WTPZ24 KNHC 210238
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 110.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2019-09-20 21:47

WTPN32 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.7N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.8N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.0N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.6N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.3N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 110.1W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 971 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 20:49

WTPZ44 KNHC 202046 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

A RESUMPTION OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE CENTER OF MARIO
TO PEAK OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THIS IS THE
SECOND DAY IN ROW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIO HAS BECOME
EXPOSED AFTER IT DEVELOPED A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1800 UTC
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 50 KT, SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
STILL 55 KT, ASSUMING A LITTLE UNDERSAMPLING HAS OCCURRED.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MARIO HAS ALREADY
PEAKED AND SHOULD ONLY WEAKEN FROM NOW ON. GIVEN HOW THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS HAVE GONE, I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT MARIO WILL WEAKEN AS
QUICKLY AS THE MODELS SUGGEST, BUT IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT STEADY
WEAKENING WILL BEGIN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, IF NOT SOONER. THE
TROPICAL STORM WILL REACH SOME VERY COLD WATER BY 72 H, AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IT
IS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 72 H.

THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 H.
THE GUIDANCE SPREAD IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN IT WAS BEFORE, BUT THE
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS STILL QUITE LOW. IN GENERAL, THE MODELS
ARE CALLING FOR LESS BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN MARIO AND LORENA,
WITH MARIO SIMPLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
LORENA'S WAKE. AS A RESULT, MARIO IS NOW FORECAST BY MOST OF THE
MODELS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAN IT WAS

>

2019-09-20 20:49

WTPZ34 KNHC 202046
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...MARIO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 110.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
TROPICAL STORM COULD THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, MARIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-20 20:49

WTPZ24 KNHC 202046 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-20 20:48

WTPZ44 KNHC 202046
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A resumption of northeasterly shear has caused the center of Mario
to peak out to the northeast of its convective canopy. This is the
second day in row that the low-level center of Mario has become
exposed after it developed a low- to mid-level eye in microwave
imagery the previous night. ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC
showed maximum winds around 50 kt, so the intensity estimate is
still 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling has occurred.

All of the intensity guidance indicates that Mario has already
peaked and should only weaken from now on. Given how the last few
nights have gone, I am not confident that Mario will weaken as
quickly as the models suggest, but it does seem likely that steady
weakening will begin by tomorrow afternoon, if not sooner. The
tropical storm will reach some very cold water by 72 h, and it is
forecast to become a remnant low at that time. The official
intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but it
is above most of the guidance for the first 72 h.

The track forecast remains highly uncertain, especially beyond 24 h.
The guidance spread is a little lower than it was before, but the
run-to-run consistency is still quite low. In general, the models
are calling for less binary interaction between Mario and Lorena,
with Mario simply lifting northward to north-northeastward in
Lorena's wake. As a result, Mario is now forecast by most of the
models to move closer to the Baja California peninsula than it was
before. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted substantially to
the east beyond 24 h accordingly, and there remains a distinct
chance that Mario will directly affect portions of the Baja
California peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 18.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-20 20:47

WTPZ24 KNHC 202046
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-20 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 201557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 46.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2019 0 10.0N 46.4W 1013 23
0000UTC 21.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 59.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2019 0 18.7N 59.6W 1001 48
0000UTC 21.09.2019 12 19.7N 62.7W 1002 43
1200UTC 21.09.2019 24 20.9N 65.2W 1005 40
0000UTC 22.09.2019 36 22.4N 66.8W 1004 40
1200UTC 22.09.2019 48 23.6N 68.2W 1002 44
0000UTC 23.09.2019 60 25.0N 68.7W 994 51
1200UTC 23.09.2019 72 26.0N 68.4W 991 53
0000UTC 24.09.2019 84 27.4N 67.2W 984 54
1200UTC 24.09.2019 96 29.4N 67.6W 978 52
0000UTC 25.09.2019 108 30.3N 66.8W 978 57
1200UTC 25.09.2019 120 31.4N 65.0W 973 59
0000UTC 26.09.2019 132 32.0N 62.6W 974 54
1200UTC 26.09.2019 144 33.3N 59.3W 967 59

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2019 0 17.5N 130.3W 999 37
0000UTC 21.09.2019 12 18.0N 131.5W 1000 43
1200UTC 21.09.2019 24 17.8N 132.9W 1004 30
0000UTC 22.09.2019 36 17.1N 133.6W 1005 26
1200UTC 22.09.2019 48 16.4N 135.0W 1006 29
0000UTC 23.09.2019 60 15.4N 136.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 23.09.2019 72 15.0N 137.6W 1005 28
0000UTC 24.09.2019 84 15.7N 138.8W 1002 30
1200UTC 24.09.2019 96 17.5N 138.7W 1003 34
0000UTC 25.09.2019 108 19.3N 139.4W 1006 28
1200UTC 25.09.2019 120 20.3N 140.1W 1009 25
0000UTC 26.09.2019 132 20.0N 140.4W 1009 25
1200UTC 26.09.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 109.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2019 0 21.7N 109.3W 999 47
0000UTC 21.09.2019 12 22.7N 110.3W 998 44
1200UTC 21.09.2019 24 23.5N 111.9W 1000 43
0000UTC 22.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2019 0 17.4N 110.4W 993 47
0000UTC 21.09.2019 12 17.8N 110.1W 988 56
1200UTC 21.09.2019 24 19.2N 110.0W 995 44
0000UTC 22.09.2019 36 21.2N 110.6W 998 32
1200UTC 22.09.2019 48 24.1N 112.4W 1000 37
0000UTC 23.09.2019 60 26.0N 115.5W 1004 26
1200UTC 23.09.2019 72 26.5N 117.1W 1007 21
0000UTC 24.09.2019 84 27.0N 117.1W 1009 25
1200UTC 24.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 33.8N 48.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 84 34.4N 47.7W 1012 26
1200UTC 24.09.2019 96 36.1N 48.0W 1011 27
0000UTC 25.09.2019 108 36.4N 49.0W 1010 31
1200UTC 25.09.2019 120 36.8N 49.5W 1011 24
0000UTC 26.09.2019 132 37.5N 50.0W 1011 23
1200UTC 26.09.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.8N 31.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 96 12.8N 31.7W 1010 28
0000UTC 25.09.2019 108 13.9N 34.7W 1009 36
1200UTC 25.09.2019 120 14.2N 37.7W 1007 39
0000UTC 26.09.2019 132 14.9N 40.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 26.09.2019 144 15.5N 42.5W 1003 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 34.3N 170.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 132 34.5N 171.4W 999 40
1200UTC 26.09.2019 144 33.1N 173.9W 1000 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201557

>

2019-09-20 15:58

WTNT80 EGRR 201557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 46.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2019 10.0N 46.4W WEAK
00UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 59.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.7N 59.6W WEAK
00UTC 21.09.2019 19.7N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.9N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 22.4N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 23.6N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 25.0N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 26.0N 68.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 27.4N 67.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 29.4N 67.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 30.3N 66.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 31.4N 65.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 32.0N 62.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 33.3N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 130.3W MODERATE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.8N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.1N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.4N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.4N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.0N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 15.7N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.5N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 19.3N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 20.3N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 20.0N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 109.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2019 21.7N 109.3W MODERATE
00UTC 21.09.2019 22.7N 110.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 23.5N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.4N 110.4W MODERATE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.8N 110.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 19.2N 110.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.2N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 24.1N 112.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 26.0N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 26.5N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 27.0N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 33.8N 48.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2019 34.4N 47.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 36.1N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 36.4N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 36.8N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 37.5N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.8N 31.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.8N 31.7W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2019 13.9N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 14.2N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 14.9N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.5N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 34.3N 170.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2019 34.5N 171.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 33.1N 173.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201557

>

2019-09-20 15:40

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.6N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.1N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.3N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.0N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.0N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.0N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 110.1W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 976 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND
211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 14:58

WTPZ44 KNHC 201455 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MARIO HAS
BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE, BUT DEEP CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE'S SURFACE
CENTER. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN
INCREASED ACROSS MARIO, AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS STILL 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB, BUT OBJECTIVE VALUES ARE LOWER.

ALMOST NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. SHIPS
DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT SUBSTANTIAL
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MARIO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND BY THE TIME THE SHEAR RELAXES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE REACHED MUCH COOLER WATERS. GIVEN THAT MARIO
IS IN BETTER SHAPE THAN IT WAS A DAY AGO, SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS STILL SHOWN IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, BUT ONLY THE GFS
EXPLICITLY FORECASTS MARIO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. NEARLY ALL
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT MARIO WILL LOSE ITS CONVECTION
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 H OR SOONER, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE NHC FORECAST.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE, EVIDENCED BY THE FACT
THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH OUTLIERS FROM THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES RUN AT THE SAME TIME. IN FACT, BOTH MODELS ARE
OUTSIDE OF THEIR ASSOCIATED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW MARIO GETTING
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW

>

2019-09-20 14:58

WTPZ34 KNHC 201454
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...MARIO STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 110.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A SHARP TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-20 14:58

WTPZ24 KNHC 201454 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-20 14:57

WTPZ44 KNHC 201455
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Microwave imagery since the last advisory indicates that Mario has
been able to maintain its low-level structure, but deep convection
is mostly displaced to the southwest of the cyclone's surface
center. This may be a sign that northeasterly shear has again
increased across Mario, at least for the moment. The intensity
estimate is still 55 kt based on Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB, but objective values are lower.

Almost no change was made to the NHC intensity forecast. SHIPS
diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that substantial
northeasterly shear will continue to affect Mario for the next
couple of days, and by the time the shear relaxes early next week,
the cyclone will have reached much cooler waters. Given that Mario
is in better shape than it was a day ago, some slight strengthening
is still shown in the short-term forecast, but only the GFS
explicitly forecasts Mario to reach hurricane strength. Nearly all
of the dynamical models forecast that Mario will lose its convection
and become a remnant low by 96 h or sooner, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast.

The track forecast is very low confidence, evidenced by the fact
that the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both outliers from their
respective ensembles run at the same time. In fact, both models are
outside of their associated guidance envelope and show Mario getting
very near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a
couple of days. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how
much Mario and Lorena will interact during the next 2 or 3 days. The
NHC forecast continues to keep the two systems separate, showing
both systems moving generally northwestward in tandem at 48 h and
beyond. However, given the close proximity of the two cyclones, a
merger can not be ruled out. The NHC forecast has been shifted to
the right of the previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the
GFS and ECMWF ensemble envelopes. Significant changes may still be
required to the track forecast later today, and there is still a
chance that Mario could directly affect portions of the Baja
California peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 17.9N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-20 14:56

WTPZ24 KNHC 201454
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 110.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.8N 110.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-20 10:53

WTPN32 PHNC 201000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 110.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 110.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.4N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.7N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.6N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 24.0N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.5N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 110.2W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 989 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND
211000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED MANOP TO CURRENT WARNING.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 10:31

WTPN32 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 110.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 110.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.5N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.6N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.5N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.3N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.2N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.4N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 110.2W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 993 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND
210400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 08:41

WTPZ44 KNHC 200838 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT MARIO'S CENTER
IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, NEAR A
BURSTING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER
THAN -80C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS SHOWS SHEAR CURRENTLY AROUND 5 KT, BUT THE SHIPS ANALYSIS
IS HIGHER, SHOWING 15 KT. GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND A BANDING EYE
FEATURE SEEN IN A PARTIAL GMI OVERPASS AROUND 0740Z, THE SHEAR LOOKS
ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THAT RANGE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THAT
TIME THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING SSTS. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING, WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS
EXPECTED BY DAY 4. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT OR ABOVE THE
HIGHEST GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS AIDS BUT BELOW THE HIGHER SHIPS AND LGEM FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 030/4, AS MARIO
APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED MORE POLEWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN MARIO AND LORENA THIS CYCLE. THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A MERGER
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALTERNATIVELY, THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WEAKENING MARIO ABSORBING LORENA AFTER 48 HOURS NEAR THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH A TRACK WELL EAST OF THE REST

>

2019-09-20 08:40

WTPZ44 KNHC 200838
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Recent microwave imagery and ASCAT data indicate that Mario's center
is located a little to the southwest of previous estimates, near a
bursting area of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder
than -80C. The initial intensity estimate remains 55 kt based on the
latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The UW-CIMSS
analysis shows shear currently around 5 kt, but the SHIPS analysis
is higher, showing 15 kt. Given the cloud pattern and a banding eye
feature seen in a partial GMI overpass around 0740Z, the shear looks
on the lower side of that range. The NHC intensity forecast
continues to show some strengthening in the short term. After that
time the shear increases and the cyclone will be moving into a
drier and more stable environment with decreasing SSTs. These
factors should result in gradual weakening, with remnant low status
expected by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is at or above the
highest guidance through 24 hours and then is a little above the
consensus aids but below the higher SHIPS and LGEM forecasts.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 030/4, as Mario
appears to have slowed and turned more poleward during the past few
hours. The latest global models have trended toward more interaction
between Mario and Lorena this cycle. The GFS and UKMET show a merger
of the two systems within 24 hours. Alternatively, the ECMWF shows a
weakening Mario absorbing Lorena after 48 hours near the west coast
of the Baja California peninsula with a track well east of the rest
of the guidance. The NHC forecast keeps the systems separate for
now, with Lorena shown as dissipated in 96 hours. However, a merger
is possible by 48 hours.

The new NHC track shows Mario turning northward and then
northwestward within 24 hours as a mid-level ridge builds over
northern Mexico. Late in the period, a weakening Mario is expected
to turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of
a large low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The new NHC track is
to the right of the TVCE consensus, but is actually bit to the left
of the previous NHC track given the initial position and motion of
the system during the past few hours. Given the uncertainty in the
degree of interaction with Lorena, confidence is low in the details
of the track forecast even within the first 48 hours, and
additional adjustments may be needed later today.

Data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass were used to adjust the
initial 34-kt wind radii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-20 08:37

WTPZ34 KNHC 200835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019

...MARIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A SHARP TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY,
WITH THIS MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2019-09-20 08:37

WTPZ24 KNHC 200835 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

>

2019-09-20 08:36

WTPZ24 KNHC 200835
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 80SE 70SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



>

2019-09-20 04:19

WTPN32 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 110.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 110.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.5N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.6N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.5N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.3N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.2N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.4N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 110.2W.
20SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 993 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND
210400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-20 03:56

WTNT82 EGRR 200355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 98.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 0 32.0N 98.3W 1008 20
1200UTC 20.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N 58.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 0 39.4N 58.4W 979 61
1200UTC 20.09.2019 12 41.9N 57.8W 987 51
0000UTC 21.09.2019 24 44.2N 55.5W 985 46
1200UTC 21.09.2019 36 45.7N 49.5W 986 41
0000UTC 22.09.2019 48 46.9N 41.9W 983 42
1200UTC 22.09.2019 60 49.7N 29.9W 975 39
0000UTC 23.09.2019 72 50.3N 23.9W 977 40
1200UTC 23.09.2019 84 52.0N 17.6W 977 36
0000UTC 24.09.2019 96 54.5N 16.8W 977 43
1200UTC 24.09.2019 108 54.4N 15.9W 983 35
0000UTC 25.09.2019 120 54.9N 11.5W 985 34
1200UTC 25.09.2019 132 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 56.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 0 17.7N 56.5W 999 53
1200UTC 20.09.2019 12 18.4N 59.8W 1002 42
0000UTC 21.09.2019 24 19.5N 62.5W 1003 41
1200UTC 21.09.2019 36 20.6N 65.0W 1002 47
0000UTC 22.09.2019 48 21.9N 66.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 22.09.2019 60 23.3N 68.0W 1000 47
0000UTC 23.09.2019 72 24.7N 68.6W 992 49
1200UTC 23.09.2019 84 25.6N 68.4W 986 55
0000UTC 24.09.2019 96 27.1N 66.3W 969 71
1200UTC 24.09.2019 108 29.5N 65.9W 962 67
0000UTC 25.09.2019 120 31.0N 65.2W 962 68
1200UTC 25.09.2019 132 33.0N 63.5W 956 67
0000UTC 26.09.2019 144 34.5N 61.4W 952 65

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 129.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 0 16.7N 129.9W 999 36
1200UTC 20.09.2019 12 17.4N 130.5W 997 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 24 18.1N 131.0W 997 52
1200UTC 21.09.2019 36 18.0N 132.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 22.09.2019 48 17.4N 133.2W 1004 30
1200UTC 22.09.2019 60 16.6N 134.7W 1005 29
0000UTC 23.09.2019 72 15.8N 135.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 23.09.2019 84 15.5N 137.3W 1005 27
0000UTC 24.09.2019 96 16.3N 137.8W 1004 32
1200UTC 24.09.2019 108 17.3N 138.0W 1006 28
0000UTC 25.09.2019 120 18.7N 138.0W 1008 24
1200UTC 25.09.2019 132 19.4N 138.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 26.09.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 0 22.2N 107.9W 1004 31
1200UTC 20.09.2019 12 22.0N 109.7W 1001 44
0000UTC 21.09.2019 24 18.7N 109.4W 992 46
1200UTC 21.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2019 0 17.4N 110.4W 1000 35
1200UTC 20.09.2019 12 17.7N 109.9W 996 44
0000UTC 21.09.2019 24 18.8N 109.3W 992 46
1200UTC 21.09.2019 36 20.4N 111.8W 989 47
0000UTC 22.09.2019 48 20.6N 113.3W 990 46
1200UTC 22.09.2019 60 21.7N 114.9W 996 39
0000UTC 23.09.2019 72 23.1N 116.7W 1000 28
1200UTC 23.09.2019 84 24.1N 118.5W 1003 25
0000UTC 24.09.2019 96 24.7N 120.0W 1007 22
1200UTC 24.09.2019 108 24.7N 121.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 25.09.2019 120 23.8N 121.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 25.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 30.8N 57.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2019 60 30.8N 57.3W 1015 33
0000UTC 23.09.2019 72 31.9N 54.2W 1007 36
1200UTC 23.09.2019 84 32.5N 51.2W 996 52
0000UTC 24.09.2019 96 33.4N 50.7W 992 53
1200UTC 24.09.2019 108 34.1N 51.0W 995 50
0000UTC 25.09.2019 120 35.6N 50.6W 1000 44
1200UTC 25.09.2019 132 38.1N 49.7W 1002 44
0000UTC 26.09.2019 144 41.2N 48.0W 1005 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.2N 31.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 108 12.2N 31.2W 1010 29
0000UTC 25.09.2019 120 13.3N 34.3W 1009 38
1200UTC 25.09.2019 132 13.7N 37.3W 1005 42
0000UTC 26.09.2019 144 13.9N 39.8W 1000 47


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200355

>

2019-09-20 03:56

WTNT80 EGRR 200355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 98.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 32.0N 98.3W WEAK
12UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N 58.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 39.4N 58.4W STRONG
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.9N 57.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 44.2N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 45.7N 49.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 46.9N 41.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 49.7N 29.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 50.3N 23.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 52.0N 17.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 54.5N 16.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 54.4N 15.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 54.9N 11.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 56.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 56.5W MODERATE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.4N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 19.5N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.6N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.9N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 23.3N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 24.7N 68.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 25.6N 68.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2019 27.1N 66.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 29.5N 65.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 31.0N 65.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 33.0N 63.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 34.5N 61.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 129.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.7N 129.9W MODERATE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.4N 130.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.1N 131.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 132.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.4N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.6N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.8N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.5N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 16.3N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.3N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.7N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.4N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 22.2N 107.9W WEAK
12UTC 20.09.2019 22.0N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.7N 109.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.4N 110.4W WEAK
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 18.8N 109.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.4N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 20.6N 113.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 21.7N 114.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.1N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.1N 118.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 24.7N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 24.7N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 23.8N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 30.8N 57.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2019 30.8N 57.3W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2019 31.9N 54.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 32.5N 51.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2019 33.4N 50.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 34.1N 51.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 35.6N 50.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 38.1N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 41.2N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.2N 31.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.2N 31.2W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2019 13.3N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.7N 37.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 13.9N 39.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200355

>

2019-09-20 02:33

WTPZ44 KNHC 200231 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

A NEW, SOLID BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER MARIO'S CENTER
A LITTLE AFTER 2200 UTC AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME. AS A
RESULT, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WENT BACK UP TO T3.5/55 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB, AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE WAS 50-55 KT.
AS A RESULT, MARIO'S INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BROUGHT BACK UP TO
55 KT.

MARIO IS ESSENTIALLY BEING PULLED NORTHEASTWARD, OR 045/8 KT,
TOWARD THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA. THAT BEING SAID,
ALL THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT MARIO WILL NOT
MERGE WITH LORENA, AND A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD FORCE MARIO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THIS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
THE CYCLONE'S FORWARD SPEED SLOWING DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES
INTO A WEAKER STEERING PATTERN. THIS FORECAST REASONING IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE NEW NHC TRACK
HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR
AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS MARIO TO THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A WEAKENING STORM, BUT THE BULK OF THAT
MODEL'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE OCEAN-WARD TRACKS SHOWN BY THE
OTHER MODELS. THESE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HELP TO INCREASE OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.

UW-CIMSS IS ANALYZING ABOUT 5 KT OF SHEAR OVER MARIO, AND GIVEN THE

>

2019-09-20 02:33

WTPZ44 KNHC 200231
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A new, solid burst of deep convection developed over Mario's center
a little after 2200 UTC and has persisted since that time. As a
result, Dvorak intensity estimates went back up to T3.5/55 kt from
TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was 50-55 kt.
As a result, Mario's initial intensity has been brought back up to
55 kt.

Mario is essentially being pulled northeastward, or 045/8 kt,
toward the circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena. That being said,
all the major global models are now in agreement that Mario will not
merge with Lorena, and a strengthening mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico should force Mario to turn sharply northward and then
northwestward during the next 2 days. This northwestward motion is
likely to continue for the rest of the 5-day forecast period, with
the cyclone's forward speed slowing down on days 4 and 5 as it moves
into a weaker steering pattern. This forecast reasoning is not too
different from the previous forecast, although the new NHC track
has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous one to account for
an overall shift in the guidance envelope. It should be noted that
the deterministic ECMWF is an outlier and brings Mario to the Baja
California peninsula as a weakening storm, but the bulk of that
model's ensemble members favor the ocean-ward tracks shown by the
other models. These ensemble solutions help to increase our
confidence in the NHC track forecast.

UW-CIMSS is analyzing about 5 kt of shear over Mario, and given the
expanding convective canopy over the center, this could definitely
be realistic. The shear could remain low enough for the next day or
so to allow for some strengthening, which is shown by a number of
the intensity models, and by extension, the NHC forecast. After
24 hours, increasing easterly shear is likely to lead to gradual
weakening, with colder waters leading to a dissipation of all
convection by day 4, if not sooner. The NHC forecast therefore now
shows Mario degenerating into a remnant low on day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-20 02:33

WTPZ34 KNHC 200231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A SHARP TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-20 02:33

WTPZ24 KNHC 200230 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-20 02:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 200230
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-19 22:21

WTPN32 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 110.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 110.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.8N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.0N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.3N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.2N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.9N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.5N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 25.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 110.4W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1019
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 20:56

WTPZ44 KNHC 192053 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

IT'S BECOME CLEAR SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE LAST ADVISORY THAT THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER OF MARIO IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF ITS CONVECTION.
IN FACT, A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN EXPOSED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE MOST RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST WAS REQUIRED BASED ON
THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION OF MARIO, AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE STILL IN EXTREMELY POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH
MARIO AND LORENA WILL INTERACT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, AND THIS IS
FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT LORENA WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THAT TIME. THE NHC
FORECAST STILL CARRIES MARIO AS AN INDEPENDENT SYSTEM THROUGH 5
DAYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
FOR BETTER OR WORSE, THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO TVCE AT MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT IS NOW JUST EAST OF THE CONSENSUS FOR THE
FIRST 24 H, GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.

MERGER OR NOT, SHEAR FROM LORENA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MARIO FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS LONG AS LORENA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION, THIS SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT MARIO OF
SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING, THOUGH SMALL SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MARIO IS
FORECAST TO REACH COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER DRY AIR, AND WILL
LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS

>

2019-09-19 20:55

WTPZ44 KNHC 192053
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

It's become clear since the issuance of the last advisory that the
low level center of Mario is displaced well east of its convection.
In fact, a good portion of the center has been exposed this
afternoon. The intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a blend
of the most recent Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers from
TAFB.

A significant change to the track forecast was required based on
the adjusted initial position of Mario, and the cyclone is now
forecast to move much farther east during the next couple of days.
The track models are still in extremely poor agreement on how much
Mario and Lorena will interact over the next 2 days, and this is
further complicated by the fact that Lorena will move over or very
near the Baja California peninsula during that time. The NHC
forecast still carries Mario as an independent system through 5
days, but confidence in the forecast remains low.
For better or worse, the NHC forecast is close to TVCE at most of
the forecast period, but is now just east of the consensus for the
first 24 h, given current trends.

Merger or not, shear from Lorena will likely affect Mario for the
next couple of days. As long as Lorena continues to produce
substantial convection, this shear should prevent Mario of
significantly strengthening, though small short-term fluctuations
are still possible. By the end of the forecast period, Mario is
forecast to reach cooler waters and encounter dry air, and will
likely become post-tropical. The new official intensity forecast is
close to the intensity consensus IVCN throughout the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 17.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-19 20:55

WTPZ24 KNHC 192052 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

>

2019-09-19 20:54

WTPZ34 KNHC 192053
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...DISORGANIZED MARIO NOW HEADING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 110.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 110.4 West. Mario is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected tonight and early Friday. A turn toward the
north is anticipated by late Friday. After that time, Mario could
turn northwestward, but confidence in the forecast is low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-19 20:54

WTPZ24 KNHC 192052
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-19 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 191555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 95.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 30.2N 95.5W 1010 24
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 36.5N 60.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 36.5N 60.6W 943 84
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 39.3N 58.8W 971 65
1200UTC 20.09.2019 24 41.9N 58.3W 980 53
0000UTC 21.09.2019 36 43.8N 55.6W 980 49
1200UTC 21.09.2019 48 45.2N 49.1W 985 43
0000UTC 22.09.2019 60 46.1N 41.0W 982 43
1200UTC 22.09.2019 72 47.6N 31.4W 979 39
0000UTC 23.09.2019 84 50.3N 24.6W 976 41
1200UTC 23.09.2019 96 50.8N 22.2W 978 39
0000UTC 24.09.2019 108 50.1N 16.5W 983 41
1200UTC 24.09.2019 120 49.1N 9.0W 991 38
0000UTC 25.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 53.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 16.2N 53.9W 1002 40
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 17.5N 56.7W 1000 47
1200UTC 20.09.2019 24 18.3N 59.6W 1001 45
0000UTC 21.09.2019 36 19.2N 62.4W 1000 49
1200UTC 21.09.2019 48 20.0N 65.2W 1001 48
0000UTC 22.09.2019 60 21.4N 66.9W 1001 43
1200UTC 22.09.2019 72 22.5N 68.6W 999 47
0000UTC 23.09.2019 84 23.6N 69.8W 996 44
1200UTC 23.09.2019 96 24.5N 70.1W 994 48
0000UTC 24.09.2019 108 25.5N 69.0W 979 70
1200UTC 24.09.2019 120 26.9N 68.9W 972 60
0000UTC 25.09.2019 132 28.2N 68.3W 970 60
1200UTC 25.09.2019 144 30.5N 67.5W 962 66

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 128.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 15.7N 128.9W 997 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 16.4N 129.4W 997 38
1200UTC 20.09.2019 24 17.2N 129.9W 994 46
0000UTC 21.09.2019 36 17.8N 130.4W 993 53
1200UTC 21.09.2019 48 18.1N 131.5W 998 43
0000UTC 22.09.2019 60 17.3N 132.8W 1000 35
1200UTC 22.09.2019 72 16.7N 133.8W 1001 34
0000UTC 23.09.2019 84 16.0N 135.0W 1000 35
1200UTC 23.09.2019 96 16.1N 136.1W 997 36
0000UTC 24.09.2019 108 17.6N 136.2W 997 46
1200UTC 24.09.2019 120 18.8N 136.6W 1005 29
0000UTC 25.09.2019 132 19.9N 136.8W 1008 25
1200UTC 25.09.2019 144 19.8N 136.7W 1010 24

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 105.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 20.9N 105.6W 1007 26
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 15.8N 111.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 17.5N 110.4W 999 33
1200UTC 20.09.2019 24 18.4N 109.7W 995 42
0000UTC 21.09.2019 36 20.0N 110.6W 990 38
1200UTC 21.09.2019 48 20.6N 112.8W 977 60
0000UTC 22.09.2019 60 21.0N 114.6W 986 53
1200UTC 22.09.2019 72 21.8N 116.4W 995 40
0000UTC 23.09.2019 84 23.0N 117.9W 999 32
1200UTC 23.09.2019 96 24.1N 119.3W 1003 26
0000UTC 24.09.2019 108 24.7N 120.6W 1005 24
1200UTC 24.09.2019 120 24.0N 121.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 25.09.2019 132 22.7N 121.5W 1006 25
1200UTC 25.09.2019 144 21.0N 122.1W 1006 24

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.9N 135.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 12.9N 135.0W 1006 25
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 13.0N 134.1W 1006 26
1200UTC 20.09.2019 24 13.6N 133.4W 1006 42
0000UTC 21.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.0N 170.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2019 0 26.0N 170.4W 999 36
0000UTC 20.09.2019 12 28.5N 171.4W 1002 34
1200UTC 20.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191555

>

2019-09-19 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 191555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 95.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 30.2N 95.5W WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 36.5N 60.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.5N 60.6W INTENSE
00UTC 20.09.2019 39.3N 58.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.9N 58.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 43.8N 55.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 45.2N 49.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 46.1N 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 47.6N 31.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 50.3N 24.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 50.8N 22.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 50.1N 16.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 49.1N 9.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 53.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.2N 53.9W WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.3N 59.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 19.2N 62.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.0N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.4N 66.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 22.5N 68.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.6N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.5N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 25.5N 69.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 26.9N 68.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 28.2N 68.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 30.5N 67.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 128.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.7N 128.9W MODERATE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.4N 129.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 17.2N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.8N 130.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.1N 131.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.3N 132.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.7N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 16.0N 135.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 16.1N 136.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 17.6N 136.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 18.8N 136.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 19.9N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.8N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 105.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 20.9N 105.6W WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 111.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 111.4W WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 110.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.4N 109.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.0N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.6N 112.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.0N 114.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 21.8N 116.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.0N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.1N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 24.7N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 24.0N 121.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 22.7N 121.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 21.0N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.9N 135.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.09.2019 12.9N 135.0W WEAK
00UTC 20.09.2019 13.0N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.6N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191555

>

2019-09-19 15:40

WTPN32 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 111.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 111.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.0N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.2N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.1N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.0N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 111.7W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1029 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 14:55

WTPZ44 KNHC 191453 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

THE INTENSITY OF MARIO IS STILL 55 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES, BUT THESE ESTIMATES LIKELY
HAVE A HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY. RECENT MICROWAVE AND
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY IMPLIES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
MARIO MAY NOW BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF MOST OF ITS DEEP
CONVECTION, AND IF THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CASE, THE WINDS MAY VERY
WELL HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.

MARIO IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW- TO MID-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER THAT DEPENDS LARGELY ON LORENA. THE ODDS THAT MARIO
(OR ITS REMNANTS) WILL DIRECTLY INTERACT WITH LORENA (OR ITS
REMNANTS) HAVE INCREASED, BUT IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHETHER ONE
CYCLONE WILL ABSORB THE OTHER OR IF THEY WILL HAVE A BINARY
INTERACTION AND ROTATE AROUND ONE ANOTHER. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS THEREFORE LOW, BUT WILL HOPEFULLY INCREASE LATER TODAY
AFTER A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE PROVIDES MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE
STATE OF LORENA. THE NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE VAST
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND KEEPS MARIO AS A DISTINCT SYSTEM THROUGH DAY
5, BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE TRACK FORECAST
LATER TODAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NO CLEARER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT
SHOWED THAT MARIO HAD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE
INNER-CORE. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT

>

2019-09-19 14:55

WTPZ44 KNHC 191453
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective
and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely
have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and
first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of
Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep
convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very
well have decreased since the last advisory.

Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly
flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally
northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What
happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario
(or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its
remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one
cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary
interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the
forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today
after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the
state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast
guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day
5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast
later today.

The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight
showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective
inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that
the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The
poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from
significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong
vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several
days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the
previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it
should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario
powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-19 14:53

WTPZ34 KNHC 191450
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

...MARIO APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 111.5W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHEAST OR
NORTHEAST HEADING AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME, MARIO COULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-19 14:53

WTPZ24 KNHC 191450 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

>

2019-09-19 14:52

WTPZ24 KNHC 191450
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-19 09:59

WTPN32 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 111.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 111.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.4N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.9N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.4N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.9N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.2N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.0N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 111.8W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1064
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 08:54

WTPZ44 KNHC 190851 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AROUND THE CENTER OF MARIO OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE
HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS, AS
CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT OVERPASS A FEW HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION, MARIO IS LIKELY
STARTING A PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION WHILE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THIS STRENGTHENING SHOULD
BE LIMITED DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BEING AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM
HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE MEXICO COAST. AFTER 36 HOURS, MARIO IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT WHILE STILL UNDERGOING SHEAR FROM NEARBY LORENA. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE
SAME HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE CONSENSUS
AIDS.

MARIO HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 355/6
KT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, AND A POSSIBLE
SUBTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN MARIO'S AND LORENA'S CIRCULATION SHOULD
INDUCE A SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

>

2019-09-19 08:54

WTPZ34 KNHC 190850
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT THU SEP 19 2019

...MARIO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 111.9W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND MARIO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-19 08:53

WTPZ44 KNHC 190851
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Deep convection has persisted around the center of Mario over the
past several hours. However, the improved appearance of the cyclone
has not yet resulted in an increase in surface wind speeds, as
confirmed by an ASCAT overpass a few hours ago. The initial
advisory intensity remains at 55 kt and this is in agreement with
the latest objective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

With the recent increase in organized convection, Mario is likely
starting a phase of intensification while over warm waters and in a
moist atmospheric environment. However, this strengthening should
be limited due to northeasterly shear being aided by outflow from
Hurricane Lorena near the Mexico coast. After 36 hours, Mario is
forecast to begin moving into a drier and more stable atmospheric
environment while still undergoing shear from nearby Lorena. This
should cause a gradual weakening trend through 96 hours. After that
time, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters in the
same hostile environment, which should cause it to degenerate to a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast
is near the previous one and is on the higher end of the consensus
aids.

Mario has turned to the north and the initial motion is now 355/6
kt. The combination of weak steering currents, and a possible
subtle interaction between Mario's and Lorena's circulation should
induce a slow north to north-northeast motion over the next couple
of days. After that time, mid-level ridging is expected to develop
over northern Mexico which should cause Mario to turn northwestward
with an increase in forward speed. The official forecast is near
the ECMWF and lies just a little to the right of the previous
forecast through the first few days, and very near it thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-19 08:53

WTPZ24 KNHC 190850 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-19 08:52

WTPZ24 KNHC 190850
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.9W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2019-09-19 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 190358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 169.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 23.0N 169.1W 1001 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 25.8N 170.2W 1000 36
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 28.1N 171.5W 1003 35
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 33.4N 65.0W 950 82
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 36.6N 60.6W 945 82
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 39.2N 59.3W 972 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 41.8N 59.3W 978 55
0000UTC 21.09.2019 48 43.3N 56.6W 977 53
1200UTC 21.09.2019 60 44.9N 49.9W 985 41
0000UTC 22.09.2019 72 46.0N 41.5W 982 43
1200UTC 22.09.2019 84 50.1N 32.4W 979 39
0000UTC 23.09.2019 96 50.5N 27.3W 978 39
1200UTC 23.09.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 51.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 15.5N 51.2W 1005 28
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 16.4N 54.2W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 17.3N 56.9W 1000 47
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 18.0N 59.6W 1000 47
0000UTC 21.09.2019 48 19.2N 62.3W 1000 48
1200UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.3N 65.1W 1003 46
0000UTC 22.09.2019 72 21.7N 67.0W 1000 44
1200UTC 22.09.2019 84 22.9N 68.7W 998 47
0000UTC 23.09.2019 96 24.0N 69.6W 990 52
1200UTC 23.09.2019 108 25.2N 69.3W 981 55
0000UTC 24.09.2019 120 27.3N 67.9W 965 70
1200UTC 24.09.2019 132 29.7N 67.6W 961 70
0000UTC 25.09.2019 144 32.1N 66.4W 952 81

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 127.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 15.5N 127.9W 991 48
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 15.3N 128.9W 991 50
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 16.0N 129.7W 992 47
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 16.9N 130.3W 990 51
0000UTC 21.09.2019 48 17.6N 130.8W 989 58
1200UTC 21.09.2019 60 18.2N 131.7W 995 47
0000UTC 22.09.2019 72 17.9N 133.3W 999 40
1200UTC 22.09.2019 84 16.7N 134.8W 1003 31
0000UTC 23.09.2019 96 16.2N 135.7W 1003 32
1200UTC 23.09.2019 108 16.4N 136.7W 1001 32
0000UTC 24.09.2019 120 17.5N 137.1W 1000 42
1200UTC 24.09.2019 132 18.9N 137.3W 1005 28
0000UTC 25.09.2019 144 20.0N 138.0W 1008 27

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 104.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 18.7N 104.8W 1005 38
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 15.3N 111.5W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 16.7N 111.4W 1003 30
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 17.5N 111.3W 1000 33
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 18.3N 110.6W 996 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 48 19.4N 111.3W 993 39
1200UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.2N 113.0W 991 51
0000UTC 22.09.2019 72 21.0N 114.8W 991 47
1200UTC 22.09.2019 84 21.9N 116.3W 998 37
0000UTC 23.09.2019 96 23.1N 117.7W 1001 28
1200UTC 23.09.2019 108 24.4N 118.9W 1004 23
0000UTC 24.09.2019 120 24.9N 120.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 24.09.2019 132 24.1N 120.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 25.09.2019 144 22.6N 120.5W 1007 23

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.5N 135.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 13.5N 135.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 13.0N 135.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 12.8N 135.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 13.5N 134.5W 1006 43
0000UTC 21.09.2019 48 13.9N 133.9W 1005 43
1200UTC 21.09.2019 60 14.1N 133.8W 1007 47
0000UTC 22.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 22.3N 170.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 22.3N 170.4W 1000 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 25.8N 170.2W 1000 36
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 28.1N 171.5W 1003 35
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.5N 168.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2019 144 33.5N 168.4W 1001 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190358

>

2019-09-19 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 190358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 169.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 23.0N 169.1W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 25.8N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 28.1N 171.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.4N 65.0W INTENSE
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.6N 60.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 39.2N 59.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.8N 59.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 43.3N 56.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 44.9N 49.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 46.0N 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 50.1N 32.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 50.5N 27.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 51.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.5N 51.2W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.4N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.3N 56.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.0N 59.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 19.2N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.7N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 22.9N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 24.0N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 25.2N 69.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2019 27.3N 67.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 29.7N 67.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 32.1N 66.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 127.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.5N 127.9W MODERATE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.3N 128.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 16.0N 129.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 16.9N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.6N 130.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 18.2N 131.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.9N 133.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.7N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 16.2N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 16.4N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 17.5N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 18.9N 137.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 20.0N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 104.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 18.7N 104.8W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.3N 111.5W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.7N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 111.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.3N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 19.4N 111.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.2N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.0N 114.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 21.9N 116.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 23.1N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.4N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 24.9N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 24.1N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 22.6N 120.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.5N 135.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.5N 135.0W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.0N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 12.8N 135.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 13.5N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 13.9N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 14.1N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 22.3N 170.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 22.3N 170.4W WEAK
12UTC 19.09.2019 25.8N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 28.1N 171.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.5N 168.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2019 33.5N 168.4W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190358

>

2019-09-19 03:38

WTPN32 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 112.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.1N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.6N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.2N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.2N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.7N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.8N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 112.2W.
19SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1091
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-19 02:55

WTPZ44 KNHC 190253 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

MARIO'S CONVECTION HAD MOSTLY COLLAPSED AROUND THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER, A 1911 UTC GPM MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATED THAT THE STORM STILL HAD A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER, AND A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION BEGAN AROUND
2300 UTC. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH 45 KT
FROM TAFB AT THE LOW END AND 65 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS AT THE HIGH
END. GIVEN THIS LARGE SPREAD, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55
KT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RANGE.

MARIO'S FUTURE STILL DEPENDS ON LORENA. AT THE MOMENT, THE STORM
IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/9 KT. THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF INTERACTION BETWEEN MARIO AND LORENA. ON
THE ONE HAND, THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS SHOW THE SMALLER MARIO
BECOMING ENVELOPED INTO LORENA'S LARGER CIRCULATION, MAKING A
BACKWARDS-S TRACK AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD. ON THE OTHER
HAND, SINCE THE ECMWF DISSIPATES LORENA INLAND OVER MEXICO, IT
ALLOWS MARIO TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD UNABATED WITH NOT
MUCH WIGGLE IN ITS TRACK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED QUITE A
BIT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING FROM NEAR MARIO TOWARD LORENA,
WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. GIVEN THAT, THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD A BIT, BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE
EAST AS SOME OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS OR THE HCCA MODEL.

INTENSITY-WISE, IT APPEARS THAT MARIO WILL GET INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,

>

2019-09-19 02:54

WTPZ44 KNHC 190253
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Mario's convection had mostly collapsed around the time of the
previous advisory. However, a 1911 UTC GPM microwave pass
indicated that the storm still had a tight circulation with a
well-defined center, and a new burst of convection began around
2300 UTC. There is a wide range of intensity estimates with 45 kt
from TAFB at the low end and 65 kt from the UW-CIMSS at the high
end. Given this large spread, the initial intensity is held at 55
kt in the middle of the range.

Mario's future still depends on Lorena. At the moment, the storm
is moving northwestward, or 320/9 kt. The track models continue to
show varying degrees of interaction between Mario and Lorena. On
the one hand, the GFS and HWRF models show the smaller Mario
becoming enveloped into Lorena's larger circulation, making a
backwards-S track as it moves generally northward. On the other
hand, since the ECMWF dissipates Lorena inland over Mexico, it
allows Mario to move northward or northwestward unabated with not
much wiggle in its track. Visible satellite images showed quite a
bit of southwesterly flow feeding from near Mario toward Lorena,
which leads me to believe that there will at least be some
interaction between the two cyclones. Given that, the NHC track
forecast has been shifted eastward a bit, but not as far to the
east as some of the consensus aids or the HCCA model.

Intensity-wise, it appears that Mario will get into a more
favorable upper-level environment during the next 24-36 hours,
which should foster some strengthening. Mario is forecast to
become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and this scenario lies
between the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA model. Weakening
is likely to occur after 48 hours due to an increase in easterly
shear, lower oceanic heat content, and possible interaction with
Lorena. Because of this possible interaction, confidence in both
the NHC track and intensity forecasts is lower than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-19 02:54

WTPZ34 KNHC 190252
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 112.2W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND
MARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-19 02:54

WTPZ24 KNHC 190252 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-19 02:53

WTPZ24 KNHC 190252
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 112.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.8N 117.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-09-18 21:49

WTPN32 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 111.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 111.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.5N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.9N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.6N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.5N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.5N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 111.8W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1128
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 20:54

WTPZ44 KNHC 182051 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

ASCAT DATA, INCLUDING FROM THE NEW ASCAT-C INSTRUMENT, WAS VERY
HELPFUL IN ANALYZING THE LOCATION, SIZE, AND INTENSITY OF MARIO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS CONTRACTED SUBSTANTIALLY,
AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTED THAT IT HAD DEVELOPED A
MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SINCE THAT TIME, IT APPEARS THAT
MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED AT LEAST IN PART WITH
OUTFLOW WITH MARIO'S LARGER SIBLING (LORENA) TO THE EAST, HAS
PREVENTED THE TROPICAL STORM FROM STRENGTHENING AT A FASTER RATE.
THE INTENSITY IS NONETHELESS INCREASED TO 55 KT, AND THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50-55
KT.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MARIO WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH LORENA. IF LORENA MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS, MARIO WILL LIKELY
BE LOCATED WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, IF LORENA STAYS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS (LIKE SHOWN IN
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST), IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO NEGATIVELY
AFFECT MARIO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LORENA'S FORECAST MAY
BECOME MORE CLEAR LATER TONIGHT, BUT UNTIL THEN THE MARIO INTENSITY
FORECAST IS, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE, HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, BUT IS
STILL WELL WITHIN THE INTENSITY MODEL SPREAD.

MARIO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT MARIO WILL MEANDER GENERALLY NORTHWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN

>

2019-09-18 20:52

WTPZ44 KNHC 182051
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

ASCAT data, including from the new ASCAT-C instrument, was very
helpful in analyzing the location, size, and intensity of Mario
this afternoon. The tropical storm has contracted substantially,
and earlier microwave data suggested that it had developed a
mid-level eye-like feature. Since that time, it appears that
moderate easterly wind shear, associated at least in part with
outflow with Mario's larger sibling (Lorena) to the east, has
prevented the tropical storm from strengthening at a faster rate.
The intensity is nonetheless increased to 55 kt, and this could be
conservative given that the ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 50-55
kt.

The track and intensity of Mario will depend largely on what happens
with Lorena. If Lorena moves inland and weakens, Mario will likely
be located within a very favorable environment for intensification.
However, if Lorena stays offshore and strengthens (like shown in
the latest NHC forecast), it will likely continue to negatively
affect Mario for the next several days. Lorena's forecast may
become more clear later tonight, but until then the Mario intensity
forecast is, and will likely continue to be, highly uncertain. The
NHC forecast is slightly above the intensity consensus, but is
still well within the intensity model spread.

Mario continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. Most of the
global models forecast that Mario will meander generally northward
to northwestward for the next couple of days toward a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. After that, if Lorena survives its brush
with Mexico and strengthens near the Baja California peninsula,
there is a chance that Mario could turn abruptly eastward as it
interacts with the other cyclone. That said, most of the global
models show no such interaction occuring, and instead show Mario
continuing broadly northward through day 5. The NHC forecast
follows the bulk of the guidance northward for now, but it should be
noted that uncertainty in the track forecast is still high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-18 20:52

WTPZ34 KNHC 182050
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

...MARIO SHRINKS BUT WINDS INCREASE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 111.8W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BY TOMORROW. MARIO IS FORECAST TO THEN SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND MARIO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-18 20:52

WTPZ24 KNHC 182050 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-18 20:52

WTPZ24 KNHC 182050
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 111.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-18 16:05

WTPN32 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 110.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.4N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.4N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.3N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.2N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 111.1W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1164
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 181558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 95.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 30.3N 95.4W 1010 24
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 168.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 20.2N 168.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 31.9N 68.7W 945 80
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 33.3N 65.1W 934 94
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 36.4N 60.7W 947 81
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 38.9N 58.9W 979 60
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 41.3N 57.9W 990 47
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 44.1N 54.7W 990 47
1200UTC 21.09.2019 72 45.6N 48.9W 990 42
0000UTC 22.09.2019 84 46.9N 40.8W 989 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 96 49.8N 33.0W 982 40
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 15.0N 48.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 15.5N 51.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 16.4N 54.2W 1003 36
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 17.5N 57.0W 1003 39
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 18.6N 59.8W 1004 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.3N 62.3W 1005 41
1200UTC 21.09.2019 72 21.8N 64.7W 1005 42
0000UTC 22.09.2019 84 23.2N 66.3W 1004 39
1200UTC 22.09.2019 96 24.5N 67.2W 1000 46
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 25.6N 67.8W 989 54
1200UTC 23.09.2019 120 26.5N 67.3W 985 53
0000UTC 24.09.2019 132 29.0N 66.5W 965 73
1200UTC 24.09.2019 144 31.6N 65.9W 964 69

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 16.2N 126.6W 994 43
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 15.8N 128.2W 994 48
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 15.5N 129.3W 994 44
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 15.7N 129.9W 992 46
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 16.5N 130.4W 992 42
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 17.2N 130.7W 990 54
1200UTC 21.09.2019 72 17.7N 131.3W 992 50
0000UTC 22.09.2019 84 17.8N 132.2W 994 47
1200UTC 22.09.2019 96 17.4N 133.3W 996 41
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 17.1N 134.5W 995 41
1200UTC 23.09.2019 120 18.0N 135.3W 993 50
0000UTC 24.09.2019 132 19.5N 136.2W 1002 38
1200UTC 24.09.2019 144 20.0N 138.3W 1008 29

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 103.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 16.9N 103.4W 1006 35
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 19.2N 105.5W 1004 40
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 14.2N 110.7W 1006 31
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 15.2N 111.5W 1005 30
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 17.0N 111.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 17.6N 111.3W 1001 30
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 19.2N 111.0W 998 33
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.0N 112.3W 996 38
1200UTC 21.09.2019 72 20.7N 113.9W 996 43
0000UTC 22.09.2019 84 21.7N 115.3W 998 38
1200UTC 22.09.2019 96 22.8N 116.7W 1002 29
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 24.4N 117.9W 1004 27
1200UTC 23.09.2019 120 26.1N 118.2W 1007 22
0000UTC 24.09.2019 132 27.0N 117.4W 1007 23
1200UTC 24.09.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.9N 135.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 13.9N 135.2W 1007 22
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 13.7N 135.7W 1007 23
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 13.3N 136.0W 1007 23
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 12.9N 136.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 12.7N 136.0W 1006 24
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 13.4N 135.8W 1006 24
1200UTC 21.09.2019 72 13.8N 135.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 22.09.2019 84 13.2N 136.1W 1007 24
1200UTC 22.09.2019 96 12.6N 136.7W 1007 29
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 12.5N 136.4W 1006 40
1200UTC 23.09.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 21.4N 171.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 22.3N 170.9W 1000 30
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 26.1N 170.4W 1000 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 27.5N 171.3W 1002 35
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 29.1N 173.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 31.3N 51.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 31.3N 51.0W 1013 27
1200UTC 23.09.2019 120 30.9N 49.5W 1013 26
0000UTC 24.09.2019 132 30.9N 49.7W 1014 24
1200UTC 24.09.2019 144 31.4N 50.4W 1015 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181558

>

2019-09-18 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 181558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 95.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 30.3N 95.4W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 168.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 20.2N 168.4W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 31.9N 68.7W INTENSE
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.3N 65.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.4N 60.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 38.9N 58.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.3N 57.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 44.1N 54.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 45.6N 48.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 46.9N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 49.8N 33.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 48.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 48.6W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.5N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.4N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.6N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 21.8N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 23.2N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 24.5N 67.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 25.6N 67.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 26.5N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 29.0N 66.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 31.6N 65.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.2N 126.6W MODERATE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 128.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.5N 129.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 15.7N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 16.5N 130.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.2N 130.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.7N 131.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 17.8N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 17.4N 133.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 17.1N 134.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 18.0N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 19.5N 136.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2019 20.0N 138.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 103.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.9N 103.4W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 19.2N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.2N 110.7W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.2N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.0N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 19.2N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.0N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 20.7N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 21.7N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 22.8N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 24.4N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 26.1N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 27.0N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.9N 135.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.9N 135.2W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.7N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.3N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 12.9N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 12.7N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 13.4N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 13.8N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 13.2N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 12.6N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 12.5N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 21.4N 171.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.09.2019 22.3N 170.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 26.1N 170.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 27.5N 171.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 29.1N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 31.3N 51.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2019 31.3N 51.0W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2019 30.9N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 30.9N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 31.4N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181558

>

2019-09-18 14:35

WTPZ44 KNHC 181433 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE OF MARIO HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT. BOTH GPM AND SSMI OVERPASSES
REVEAL A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT IS FAIRLY ALIGNED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS PLACES THE CENTER WELL WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE MASS SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON
THIS RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 55 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE
AND UW/CIMSS ADT. MARIO HAS MANAGED TO FIGHT OFF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SO FAR, AND WITH THE CYCLONE TRAVERSING WARM
SSTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IN THE SHORT TERM AND BRINGS MARIO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE ANTICIPATED SLOW MOTION OF THE STORM
COULD CAUSE SOME UPWELLING, SO LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY SLOW
WEAKENING.

MARIO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IT
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, THE
TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS SUGGEST SOME BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN MARIO AND LORENA,
WITH MARIO TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS LORENA PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH OF MARIO. FOR NOW, THE NHC FORECAST ANTICIPATES LESS
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND THE OFFICIAL

>

2019-09-18 14:34

WTPZ44 KNHC 181433
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has
become better defined overnight. Both GPM and SSMI overpasses
reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned
with the low-level center. This places the center well within the
convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery. Based on
this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is
raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate
and UW/CIMSS ADT. Mario has managed to fight off moderate
northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm
SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is
forecast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory
in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24
hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm
could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in
the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow
weakening.

Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to
the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it
northwestward during the next day or so. After that time, the
track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical
models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena,
with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast
and north of Mario. For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less
interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official
forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The
medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more
uncertain than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-18 14:34

WTPZ34 KNHC 181432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

...MARIO STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 111.0W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. MARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND MARIO
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-18 14:34

WTPZ24 KNHC 181432 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-18 14:34

WTPZ24 KNHC 181432
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-18 10:16

WTPN32 PHNC 181000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 109.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 109.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.7N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.4N 112.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 17.5N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.0N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.0N 114.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181000Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 110.1W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1229
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181600Z, 182200Z, 190400Z AND 191000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 08:47

WTPZ44 KNHC 180844 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

MARIO HAS DONE WELL IN FIGHTING OFF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT
CONTINUES TO IMPACT IT, WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED
THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND UP TO 80 N MI IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AND 60 N MI IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS PASS
ALSO INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT, AND
THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY.

MARIO HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/09 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER IT IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. BY LATE THURSDAY, A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE, AND THE STEERING CURRENTS
WILL COLLAPSE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
EVENTUALLY MARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVER
MEXICO, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MARIO BEGINNING A NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND IN THE MIDDLE OF TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
AFTER 72 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AGAIN,
THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST, BUT REMAINS
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

THE SHEAR AFFECTING MARIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION

>

2019-09-18 08:47

WTPZ34 KNHC 180844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2019

...MARIO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 110.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. MARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND MARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-18 08:46

WTPZ44 KNHC 180844
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Mario has done well in fighting off northeasterly shear that
continues to impact it, with deep convection extending across the
center for much of the night. A recent scatterometer pass indicated
that tropical storm force winds now extend up to 80 n mi in the
southeast quadrant, and 60 n mi in the northeast quadrant. This pass
also indicated that the maximum winds have increased to 40 kt, and
this will be the initial advisory intensity.

Mario has turned a little to the left, and the initial motion is now
310/09 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should
continue to steer it in this general direction through Thursday
morning. By late Thursday, a trough digging into the western United
States is expected to erode the ridge, and the steering currents
will collapse. This will result in a decrease in forward speed and
eventually Mario is expected to become nearly stationary through
Friday night. By Saturday, the ridge is forecast to rebuild over
Mexico, which would result in Mario beginning a north-northwest
motion. The official forecast track is high confidence through 72
hours and in the middle of tightly clustered consensus guidance.
After 72 hours when the cyclone is expected to begin moving again,
the guidance diverges and has shifted a little to the east. The
official forecast was also shifted a little to the east, but remains
west of the consensus aids during that time frame.

The shear affecting Mario is expected to continue for the duration
of the forecast period, while tropical cyclone Lorena remains to the
northeast. Warm waters and a favorable atmospheric environment
aside from the shear should allow for gradual strengthening for the
next couple of days, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by
Friday. By Saturday, Mario will begin to move into a drier and more
stable environment, while the shear remains. This should cause a
weakening trend to begin and continue through the end of the
forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous
one, and is on the higher end of the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-18 08:46

WTPZ24 KNHC 180843 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

>

2019-09-18 08:45

WTPZ24 KNHC 180843
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.1W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 109.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 110.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2019-09-18 03:27

WTPN32 PHNC 180400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 108.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 108.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.7N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.9N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.5N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.4N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180400Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 109.4W.
18SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1270
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181000Z, 181600Z, 182200Z AND
190400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-18 02:48

WTPZ44 KNHC 180246 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019

MARIO'S CENTER WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT IT IS NOW COVERED BY A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST.
THE CONVECTION ITSELF REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOPSIDED, FAVORING THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
EMANATING AWAY FROM THE LARGER TROPICAL STORM LORENA TO THE EAST.
SINCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 30-40 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 325/8 KT. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS, BUT SINCE THE RIDGE RETREATS
EASTWARD A BIT, MARIO'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THAT TIME. BY DAY 3, MARIO AND LORENA MAY GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ONE ANOTHER TO CAUSE MARIO TO ALMOST STALL. AFTER
DAY 3, MARIO'S TRACK WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON LORENA'S FUTURE, AND
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LORENA MOVING UP NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WHICH
PULLS MARIO FARTHER TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND, DISSIPATES LORENA NEAR WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, WHICH
ALLOWS MARIO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. FOR NOW, THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE HCCA MODEL.

EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER MARIO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, SO ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS

>

2019-09-18 02:48

WTPZ44 KNHC 180246
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Mario's center was partially exposed after the release of the
previous advisory, but it is now covered by a new convective burst.
The convection itself remains somewhat lopsided, favoring the
southwestern quadrant due to strong upper-level easterly winds
emanating away from the larger Tropical Storm Lorena to the east.
Since subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
from 30-40 kt, the initial intensity remains 35 kt on this advisory.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 325/8 kt. A mid-level
ridge over Mexico should keep the cyclone on its northwestward
trajectory for the next 2 days, but since the ridge retreats
eastward a bit, Mario's forward motion is expected to decrease
significantly during that time. By day 3, Mario and Lorena may get
close enough to one another to cause Mario to almost stall. After
day 3, Mario's track will mostly depend on Lorena's future, and
there is significant model spread on days 4 and 5. The GFS has a
stronger Lorena moving up near the Baja California peninsula, which
pulls Mario farther toward the north and east. The ECMWF, on the
other hand, dissipates Lorena near west-central Mexico, which
allows Mario continue on a northwestward heading. For now, the
official forecast splits the difference and closely follows the
multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model.

Easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over Mario
during the next day or two, so only gradual strengthening is
expected during that time. Vertical shear may decrease around the
time that Mario stalls, and at that point the system is forecast to
become a hurricane. Some weakening is anticipated by the end of
the forecast period due to an increase in shear. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is only slightly lower than the previous one
based on the latest guidance. It should be noted that there is
greater-than-normal uncertainty in this forecast since it is not
known how much Mario and Lorena will interact in the coming days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.2N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-18 02:48

WTPZ34 KNHC 180246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...MARIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 109.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MARIO BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND MARIO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-18 02:48

WTPZ24 KNHC 180246 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W

>

2019-09-18 02:47

WTPZ24 KNHC 180246
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 109.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2019-09-17 21:52

WTPN32 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (MARIO) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.0N 108.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 108.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.3N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.7N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.0N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.0N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172200Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 108.9W.
17SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 14E (MARIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1329 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180400Z, 181000Z, 181600Z AND
182200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KIKO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 20:40

WTPZ44 KNHC 172038 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GROW OVER THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE, WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRYING TO FORM IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER, THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE RISING, WHICH MATCHES THE
INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TREND ON SATELLITES. THUS THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS BUMPED UP TO 35 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

MARIO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS DUE PRIMARILY TO A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST
AT LONG-RANGE DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL, AND THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE
THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE-TO-NO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM
LORENA.

WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING LESS INTERACTION WITH LORENA, IT SEEMS
PROBABLE THAT FURTHER STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR IN A LOW-SHEAR,
WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT. INTERESTINGLY, THE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY
LOWER THAN THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY
REASONS FOR THE CHANGE. I'VE ELECTED TO LET THE MORNING FORECAST
RIDE FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY TO SEE IF THE GUIDANCE COMES BACK
UPWARD, AND THE LATEST WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS AT THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

>

2019-09-17 20:39

WTPZ44 KNHC 172038
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the
cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western
semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from
earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the
increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the
initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory.

Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated
for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered
over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast
at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global
models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC
track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since
the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm
Lorena.

With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems
probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear,
warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually
lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any
reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast
ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back
upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-17 20:39

WTPZ34 KNHC 172037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...MARIO FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO, FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 108.7W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST. MARIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-17 20:39

WTPZ24 KNHC 172037 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W

>

2019-09-17 20:39

WTPZ24 KNHC 172037
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-17 17:37

WTPN32 PHNC 171600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161551ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 108.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 108.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.9N 108.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.5N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.1N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.3N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.5N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
171600Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 108.3W.
17SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (FOURTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1367 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172200Z, 180400Z, 181000Z
AND 181600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KIKO)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (LORENA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 161600).//
NNNN

>

2019-09-17 14:51

WTPZ44 KNHC 171448 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH SAB AND TAFB
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THERE IS NOW ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT MATCHES THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
DATA AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/8 KT, WITH STEERING PROVIDED
BY A DISTANT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT RUNS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-
LATITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE BIGGEST
COMPLICATION IS TROPICAL STORM LORENA TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE 6Z GFS, SHOWS A BINARY
INTERACTION WITH AT LONGER TERM, WHICH COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD
MOTION. WHILE I CAN'T RULE THAT OUT, THE FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER
TO THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS INTERACTION, SUCH AS THE MORE WESTWARD
HWRF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THOSE MODELS.

WHILE ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING OF THIS
DEPRESSION INTO A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS, THIS FORECAST IS
PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO LORENA. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM LORENA COULD INDUCE MORE EASTERLY SHEAR THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST IF THE TRACKS GET CLOSER TOGETHER. FOR NOW, SINCE THE
CYCLONES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FAIR DISTANCE FROM ONE ANOTHER,

>

2019-09-17 14:50

WTPZ34 KNHC 171447
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 17 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 108.2W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
(15 KM/H). A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-17 14:50

WTPZ24 KNHC 171447 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

>

2019-09-17 14:49

WTPZ44 KNHC 171448
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection has intensified over the small area of low pressure
that NHC has been monitoring for several days. Both SAB and TAFB
estimates indicate that there is now enough organized thunderstorm
activity to initiate advisories on a tropical depression, and the
initial wind speed of 30 kt matches the overnight scatterometer
data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.

The initial motion is an uncertain 335/8 kt, with steering provided
by a distant low-level ridge to the east. The cyclone is forecast
to gradually turn toward the northwest and west-northwest during the
next several days as it runs into the southwestern side of a mid-
latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The biggest
complication is Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast, which some
of the model guidance, such as the 6Z GFS, shows a binary
interaction with at longer term, which could induce a more northward
motion. While I can't rule that out, the forecast will stay closer
to the models that show less interaction, such as the more westward
HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend
of those models.

While almost all of the guidance indicates strengthening of this
depression into a hurricane in a few days, this forecast is
problematic because of the proximity to Lorena. Convective outflow
from Lorena could induce more easterly shear than is currently
forecast if the tracks get closer together. For now, since the
cyclones are forecast to remain a fair distance from one another,
this wind speed prediction assumes that the low-shear environment in
most of the models materializes, and the forecast follows the
corrected-consensus intensity guidance HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 11.9N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-17 14:48

WTPZ24 KNHC 171447
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 108.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 108.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>