Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23 in Mozambique, Madagascar from 06 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC to 07 Mar 2023 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23

in Mozambique, Madagascar

07 Mar 2023 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000023-MDG
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Madagascar
Exposed population	2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (21 Feb 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 10 Mar 2023 12:00 - 11 Mar 2023 12:00 in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.7 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	185	No people	No people
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	185	No people	No people
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	194	No people	No people
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	194	No people	No people
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	204	No people	No people
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	185	No people	No people
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	176	No people	No people
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	176	No people	No people
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	157	No people	No people
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	139	No people	No people
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	148	No people	No people
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	157	No people	No people
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	157	No people	No people
15	10 Feb 2023 00:00	157	No people	No people
16	10 Feb 2023 12:00	185	No people	No people
17	11 Feb 2023 00:00	185	No people	No people
18	11 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
19	12 Feb 2023 00:00	213	No people	No people
20	12 Feb 2023 12:00	185	No people	No people
21	13 Feb 2023 00:00	204	No people	No people
22	13 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
23	14 Feb 2023 00:00	204	No people	No people
24	14 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
25	15 Feb 2023 00:00	241	No people	No people
26	15 Feb 2023 12:00	250	4 thousand	No people	Mauritius
27	16 Feb 2023 00:00	250	No people	No people
28	16 Feb 2023 12:00	231	2.5 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
29	17 Feb 2023 00:00	204	13.7 million	1000 thousand	Madagascar
30	17 Feb 2023 12:00	176	13.7 million	1.8 million	Madagascar
31	18 Feb 2023 00:00	204	14.3 million	1.1 million	Madagascar
32	18 Feb 2023 12:00	185	10.4 million	1.8 million	Madagascar
33	19 Feb 2023 00:00	213	15.2 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
34	19 Feb 2023 12:00	194	10.7 million	1.4 million	Madagascar
35	20 Feb 2023 00:00	204	18.2 million	3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
36	20 Feb 2023 12:00	194	9.9 million	1.4 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
37	21 Feb 2023 00:00	176	11.3 million	2.4 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
38	21 Feb 2023 12:00	185	6.6 million	1.4 million	Madagascar
39	22 Feb 2023 00:00	130	9.6 million	1.5 million	Madagascar
40	22 Feb 2023 12:00	111	10.3 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
41	23 Feb 2023 00:00	102	9.1 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
42	23 Feb 2023 12:00	102	9.2 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
43	24 Feb 2023 00:00	120	10.5 million	1.7 million	Mozambique, Madagascar
44	24 Feb 2023 12:00	93	9.5 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
45	04 Mar 2023 12:00	148	10.1 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
46	05 Mar 2023 00:00	148	10.7 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
47	05 Mar 2023 12:00	139	10.2 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
48	06 Mar 2023 00:00	148	12 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
49	06 Mar 2023 12:00	148	12.8 million	1.6 million	Madagascar
50	07 Mar 2023 00:00	139	16.1 million	2 million	Madagascar, Mozambique
51	07 Mar 2023 12:00	194	16.9 million	2.7 million	Madagascar, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.2, 118.6
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-12.6, 118.5
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13, 118.5
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-13.9, 117.8
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 117
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-14.6, 116.1
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-14.9, 115.3
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-15.1, 114.5
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-15.3, 113.7
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16, 113.1
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16.3, 112.6
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16, 111
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.4, 110.3
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-15.4, 109.6
15	10 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-15.3, 108.4
16	10 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-14.8, 106.5
17	11 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-14.8, 104.8
18	11 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-14.8, 103
19	12 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	-15, 101.2
20	12 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-15.1, 98.9
21	13 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-15.1, 96.8
22	13 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-15.4, 94.6
23	14 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-15.4, 92.5
24	14 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-15.4, 90
25	15 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-15.3, 87.3
26	15 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	-15, 84.9
27	16 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	-14.8, 82.5
28	16 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	-15, 79.5
29	17 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-15.4, 76.6
30	17 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-15.8, 73.8
31	18 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	-16.1, 71.5
32	18 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	-16.2, 69.4
33	19 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	-16.7, 67
34	19 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	-17.4, 64.1
35	20 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	241	no people	1.2 million people	-18.1, 60.7
36	20 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	1.8 million people	-18.9, 57
37	21 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	2 million people	-19.8, 53
38	21 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	185	1.4 million people	3.9 million people	-20.7, 49.6
39	22 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	130	570000 people	5.6 million people	-21.1, 46.8	Madagascar
40	22 Feb 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	510000 people	-22.4, 43.6	Madagascar
41	23 Feb 2023 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-22.1, 41.1
42	23 Feb 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	12000 people	-22.5, 39.4
43	24 Feb 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	111	74000 people	1.4 million people	-22.8, 37.6
44	24 Feb 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	580000 people	-22.6, 35	Mozambique
45	04 Mar 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-22.5, 39.6
46	05 Mar 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.1 million people	-22.8, 41.3
47	05 Mar 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.3 million people	-23, 42.2
48	06 Mar 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.3 million people	-23.7, 43.1
49	06 Mar 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.3 million people	-24.1, 42.9
50	07 Mar 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.8 million people	-24, 42.7
51	07 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	680000 people	-23, 42.1
51	08 Mar 2023 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	32000 people	-22.1, 41.5
51	08 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-21.3, 40.7
51	09 Mar 2023 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-20.6, 40
51	09 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	1.2 million people	-19.9, 39.4
51	10 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 3	194	530000 people	2.7 million people	-18.6, 38.3
51	11 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 2	176	1.1 million people	6.2 million people	-17.6, 37.5	Mozambique
51	12 Mar 2023 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-17.1, 36.6	Mozambique

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.