Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FLORENCE-18 in United States from 31 Aug 2018 21:00 UTC to 11 Sep 2018 03:00 UTC

11 Sep 2018 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FLORENCE-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	241 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 820000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	120	40 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	120	7 thousand	No people
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	111	No people	No people
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	102	No people	No people
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	102	No people	No people
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	93	No people	No people
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	120	No people	No people
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	148	No people	No people
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	167	No people	No people
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	167	No people	No people
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	204	No people	No people
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	194	No people	No people
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	194	No people	No people
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	204	No people	No people
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	213	No people	No people
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	231	No people	No people
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	231	No people	No people
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	231	410 thousand	No people	United States
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	231	2.7 million	160 thousand	United States
40	09 Sep 2018 09:00	222	4.3 million	340 thousand	United States
41	09 Sep 2018 15:00	222	6.5 million	600 thousand	United States
42	09 Sep 2018 21:00	222	5.9 million	990 thousand	United States
43	10 Sep 2018 03:00	241	5.7 million	990 thousand	United States
44	10 Sep 2018 09:00	231	7.4 million	1.3 million	United States
45	10 Sep 2018 15:00	231	8 million	2.1 million	United States
46	10 Sep 2018 21:00	222	6.5 million	2 million	United States
47	11 Sep 2018 03:00	222	5.2 million	820 thousand	United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -18.4
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -19.4
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.2, -20.9
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -21.4
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.7, -22.7
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.8, -24.7
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.2, -25.5
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -26.7
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.8, -27.8
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -29
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16, -30.2
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.5, -31.4
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17, -33.2
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.4, -34.6
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.9, -35.9
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	18, -37.5
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.3, -38.7
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.6, -39.8
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.9, -41
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.3, -42
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	19.7, -42.5
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	20.3, -43.2
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	20.7, -43.9
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	21.4, -44.8
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	22, -45.7
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	22.7, -46.6
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	23.4, -47.2
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24.1, -47.9
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24.6, -48.6
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	25, -49.6
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.1, -49.8
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25.1, -50.7
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25, -51.8
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.8, -52.5
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	24.8, -53.2
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.2
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.3
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -54.7
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -55.2
40	09 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.5, -55.8
41	09 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	24.4, -56.3
42	09 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	24.4, -57
43	10 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	24.6, -57.7
44	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24.9, -58.9
45	10 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	25, -60
46	10 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	25.4, -61.1
47	11 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	25.9, -62.4
47	11 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	26.5, -64.5
47	12 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	27.9, -67.5
47	12 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	29.6, -70.4
47	13 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	241	26000 people	3.3 million people	31.3, -73.2	United States
47	14 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	222	820000 people	4.8 million people	34, -76.5	United States
47	15 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	3.9 million people	35.5, -78	United States
47	16 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	36.5, -79	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
United States

Provinces

Region Province	Country
North Carolina	United States

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Goldsboro	North Carolina	United States	City	39000 people
Wilson	North Carolina	United States	City	44000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Beaufort Morehead City		3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4200
Morehead City State Port Terminal		2				0
Circle P Farm		9				0
Bogue Field Mcalf		7	Mil.	Unpaved	No	4000
Cherry Point Mcas	NKT	9	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8900
Triple M		9				0
Dogwood Farm		8				0
Hickory Hill		9				0
Craven Co Regional	EWN	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Whitewood Forest		9				0
Craven Regional Medical Center		2				0
Epley		12				0
Camp Davis Mcolf		18				0
Deppe Landing Strip		14				0
Topsail Airpark		20				0
Canaan Air Base		10				0
New River Mcas		8	Mil.	Paved	Yes	5100
Catino Ranch		15				0
Bell Strip		11				0
Oak Grove Mcolf		8				0
Sky Manor		18				0
Albert J Ellis	OAJ	29	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7100
Stag Air Park		7				0
Hell And Purgatory		24				0
Flying W		35				0
Pink Hill		44				0
Kinston Jetport Stallings	ISO	29	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Murphy Farms		24				0
Moss Hill		9				0
Duplin General Hospital		38				0
Smith Farm		17				0
Flanagan Field		23				0
P B Raiford		41	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Craft Air		26				0
Mt Olive Municipal		51				0
Seymour Johnson AFB	GSB	33	Mil.	Paved	Yes	11700
Wayne Memorial Hospital Inc.		32				0
Goldsboro Wayne Municipal		41	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5500
Cox-Grantham Airfield		48				0
Benton's Airfield		44				0
Scottbrook Farm		49				0
Hinton Field		46				0
Wilson Industrial Air Center		49				0
Selma		52				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Cape Lookout		Wake Island
Morehead City	USMRH	Wake Island
Swansboro		Wake Island
New Bern		Wake Island

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 47 of 11 Sep 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)