Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NARDA-19
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-10-01 15:58

WTNT82 EGRR 011557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.10.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 34.1N 39.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 0 34.1N 39.2W 958 64
0000UTC 02.10.2019 12 37.6N 34.6W 955 61
1200UTC 02.10.2019 24 42.2N 28.4W 958 60
0000UTC 03.10.2019 36 48.7N 20.4W 964 54
1200UTC 03.10.2019 48 54.1N 16.6W 950 56
0000UTC 04.10.2019 60 54.2N 11.2W 967 52
1200UTC 04.10.2019 72 51.1N 5.1W 992 42
0000UTC 05.10.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 111.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 0 27.0N 111.2W 1007 20
0000UTC 02.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.5N 144.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2019 36 13.7N 143.7W 1004 27
1200UTC 03.10.2019 48 13.9N 143.7W 1005 25
0000UTC 04.10.2019 60 14.5N 144.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 04.10.2019 72 14.6N 145.4W 1006 27
0000UTC 05.10.2019 84 14.8N 146.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 05.10.2019 96 15.0N 147.2W 1006 25
0000UTC 06.10.2019 108 15.6N 146.7W 1006 25
1200UTC 06.10.2019 120 16.8N 145.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 07.10.2019 132 18.4N 144.4W 1005 22
1200UTC 07.10.2019 144 20.0N 143.6W 1007 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 14.1N 126.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2019 48 13.8N 125.9W 1004 26
0000UTC 04.10.2019 60 14.5N 125.9W 1004 26
1200UTC 04.10.2019 72 15.3N 126.1W 1005 31
0000UTC 05.10.2019 84 16.4N 126.3W 1003 33
1200UTC 05.10.2019 96 17.6N 126.8W 1001 40
0000UTC 06.10.2019 108 18.8N 127.8W 1002 37
1200UTC 06.10.2019 120 20.1N 129.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 07.10.2019 132 21.3N 130.8W 1008 28
1200UTC 07.10.2019 144 22.5N 132.4W 1011 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 36.2N 44.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2019 120 36.2N 44.0W 1008 34
0000UTC 07.10.2019 132 36.8N 39.5W 1012 30
1200UTC 07.10.2019 144 39.6N 31.9W 1013 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011556

>

2019-10-01 15:58

WTNT80 EGRR 011556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.10.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 34.1N 39.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 34.1N 39.2W INTENSE
00UTC 02.10.2019 37.6N 34.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 42.2N 28.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 48.7N 20.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 54.1N 16.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 54.2N 11.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 51.1N 5.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 111.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 27.0N 111.2W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.5N 144.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2019 13.7N 143.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 13.9N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 14.5N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 14.6N 145.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 14.8N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 15.0N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 15.6N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 16.8N 145.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2019 18.4N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2019 20.0N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 14.1N 126.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2019 13.8N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 14.5N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 15.3N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 16.4N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 17.6N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 18.8N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 20.1N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2019 21.3N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2019 22.5N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 36.2N 44.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2019 36.2N 44.0W WEAK
00UTC 07.10.2019 36.8N 39.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2019 39.6N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011556

>

2019-10-01 14:49

WTPZ41 KNHC 011447
TCDEP1

REMNANTS OF NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 01 2019

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS DISSIPATED ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO PRODUCING
NEGLIGIBLE DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NARDA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U.S.
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN, WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING IN THE U.S., PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NOAA WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 27.3N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF NARDA
12H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-10-01 14:49

WTPZ31 KNHC 011447 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 01 2019

...NARDA DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...RAINFALL STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 110.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF NARDA WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. MOISTURE FROM NARDA WILL
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, ENHANCING RAINFALL AND
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: NARDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO
2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA.

MOISTURE FROM NARDA WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ENHANCING RAINFALL
AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS. FOR ADDITIONAL

>

2019-10-01 14:49

WTPZ21 KNHC 011447
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 110.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 110.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-10-01 14:48

WTPZ31 KNHC 011447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Narda Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

...NARDA DISSIPATES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...RAINFALL STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 110.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Narda were located near
latitude 27.3 North, longitude 110.3 West. Moisture from Narda will
spread northeastward across portions of northwestern Mexico and the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next day or two, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. These winds should continue to diminish today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce additional rainfall of up to
2 inches across portions of Chihuahua and Sonora.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days, enhancing rainfall
and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of coastal
Mexico along the Gulf of California. Although the high surf should
decrease during the day, these swells could still cause
life-threatening rip current conditions today. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-10-01 12:46

WTPZ31 KNHC 011243 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
600 AM MDT TUE OCT 01 2019

CORRECTED CLASSIFICATION OF NARDA IN DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK SECTION

...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. NARDA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). NARDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND CIRCULATION OF NARDA WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY, HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NARDA'S
REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO

>

2019-10-01 12:44

WTPZ31 KNHC 011243 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda
Intermediate Advisory Number 12A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

Corrected classification of Narda in discussion and outlook section

...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Narda
is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Narda is
forecast to continue moving along the northwestern coast of mainland
Mexico this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. The wind circulation of Narda will likely
dissipate later today, however moisture associated with Narda's
remnants will continue to spread northward over northwestern Mexico
and the southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. This
moisture could cause heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty conditions are possible along the coast this morning.
These winds should diminish through the day.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through today:

Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding
today. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding
over northwest Mexico.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-10-01 11:49

WTPZ31 KNHC 011147 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
600 AM MDT TUE OCT 01 2019

...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). NARDA IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO
THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND CIRCULATION OF NARDA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY, HOWEVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NARDA'S REMNANTS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MOISTURE

>

2019-10-01 11:48

WTPZ31 KNHC 011147
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
600 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

...NARDA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 110.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
warning for the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 110.1 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). Narda is forecast
to continue moving along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. The wind circulation of Narda will likely dissipate
later today, however moisture associated with Narda's remnants will
continue to spread northward over northwestern Mexico and the
southwestern U.S. during the next couple of days. This moisture
could cause heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty conditions are possible along the coast this morning.
These winds should diminish through the day.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through today:

Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding
today. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding
over northwest Mexico.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-10-01 08:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 010842 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 01 2019

THE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF NARDA IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO FIND
THIS MORNING, BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE, USING CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MAINLAND MEXICO COAST AND ABOUT 30
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NOW DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS
MOVED INLAND. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY
STILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST, NORTH OF LOS
MOCHIS, SINALOA AND SOUTH OF GUAYMAS, SONORA. BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING SATELLITE PRESENTATION, AND A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT.

ALTHOUGH NARDA'S CENTER HAS RE-EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
FURTHER WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST, AND DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE
IS ANTICIPATED AS IT ONCE AGAIN MOVES INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN
OF COASTAL MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. IT'S WORTH NOTING,
HOWEVER, THAT A COUPLE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE NARDA'S
REMNANTS DRIFTING BACK JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 325/12 KT.
THIS GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERAL FLOW OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST, IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES, AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE MAIN HAZARD PRODUCED BY NARDA CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY

>

2019-10-01 08:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 010842
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

The ill-defined surface center of Narda is a bit difficult to find
this morning, but the best estimate, using conventional satellite
imagery, is just offshore of the mainland Mexico coast and about 30
miles southeast of the now decoupled mid-level circulation. The
majority of the deep convection associated with the cyclone has
moved inland. However, sustained tropical-storm-force winds may
still exist along and just offshore of the coast, north of Los
Mochis, Sinaloa and south of Guaymas, Sonora. Based on the
deteriorating satellite presentation, and a blend of the satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt.

Although Narda's center has re-emerged over the Gulf of California,
further weakening is still forecast, and dissipation of the cyclone
is anticipated as it once again moves inland over the rugged terrain
of coastal Mainland Mexico on Wednesday. It's worth noting,
however, that a couple of the large-scale models indicate Narda's
remnants drifting back just offshore over the central Gulf of
California prior to dissipation.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/12 kt.
This general northwestward motion, within the mid-level southwestern
peripheral flow of strong high pressure ridging to the northeast, is
expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new NHC forecast
track is changed little from the previous one.

The main hazard produced by Narda continues to be very heavy
rainfall, due to large amounts of deep-layer moisture being
advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side
of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as
much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Furthermore, the very
humid mid- and upper-level remnant moisture plume is expected to
spread northeastward across northern Mexico and into portions of the
U.S. Southern and Central Plains through Wednesday, enhancing the
threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in these areas. For
additional information, please see excessive rainfall products
issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 26.6N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 27.9N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/0600Z 29.2N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND REMNT LOW
36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-10-01 08:43

WTPZ31 KNHC 010841 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 01 2019

...NARDA WEAKENING AND POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 109.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ALTATA TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF NARDA WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO BY
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A

>

2019-10-01 08:43

WTPZ21 KNHC 010840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ALTATA TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 109.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 109.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.9N 110.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.2N 111.6W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 109.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-10-01 08:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 010841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

...NARDA WEAKENING AND POORLY ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 109.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 109.7 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is expected, and Narda is forecast to become a
tropical depression today. On Wednesday, Narda should degenerate
into a remnant low and dissipate in northwestern mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding
early Tuesday. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash
flooding over northwest Mexico.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-10-01 05:52

WTPZ31 KNHC 010549 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1200 AM MDT TUE OCT 01 2019

...NARDA ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 109.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ALTATA TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST.
NARDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NARDA WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO BY
LATE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

>

2019-10-01 05:51

WTPZ31 KNHC 010549
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019

...NARDA ABOUT TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 109.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located inland near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 109.3 West.
Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by
late tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through today:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-10-01 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 010357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.10.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 41.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2019 0 31.3N 41.9W 954 67
1200UTC 01.10.2019 12 34.0N 39.3W 950 70
0000UTC 02.10.2019 24 37.2N 34.7W 949 67
1200UTC 02.10.2019 36 41.9N 28.8W 955 60
0000UTC 03.10.2019 48 48.2N 20.6W 968 52
1200UTC 03.10.2019 60 53.8N 17.2W 953 61
0000UTC 04.10.2019 72 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2019 0 27.4N 110.0W 1002 27
1200UTC 01.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.2N 141.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 24 13.2N 141.6W 1005 26
1200UTC 02.10.2019 36 13.9N 140.8W 1003 28
0000UTC 03.10.2019 48 14.7N 140.4W 1001 35
1200UTC 03.10.2019 60 15.0N 140.3W 1003 31
0000UTC 04.10.2019 72 15.4N 141.0W 1003 29
1200UTC 04.10.2019 84 15.2N 142.5W 1005 29
0000UTC 05.10.2019 96 15.1N 143.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 05.10.2019 108 15.5N 143.9W 1006 23
0000UTC 06.10.2019 120 16.5N 143.6W 1006 23
1200UTC 06.10.2019 132 17.7N 143.5W 1006 22
0000UTC 07.10.2019 144 18.6N 143.5W 1006 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 36.9N 18.5E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2019 72 36.9N 18.5E 1000 34
1200UTC 04.10.2019 84 38.7N 23.2E 1002 32
0000UTC 05.10.2019 96 43.4N 33.3E 1002 26
1200UTC 05.10.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.4N 128.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2019 120 17.1N 129.2W 1005 31
1200UTC 06.10.2019 132 18.0N 130.3W 1003 35
0000UTC 07.10.2019 144 18.9N 131.8W 1003 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010356

>

2019-10-01 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 010356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 41.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2019 31.3N 41.9W INTENSE
12UTC 01.10.2019 34.0N 39.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 37.2N 34.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 41.9N 28.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 48.2N 20.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 53.8N 17.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 110.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2019 27.4N 110.0W WEAK
12UTC 01.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.2N 141.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.2N 141.6W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2019 13.9N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 14.7N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 15.0N 140.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 15.4N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 15.2N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 15.1N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 15.5N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 16.5N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 17.7N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2019 18.6N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 36.9N 18.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2019 36.9N 18.5E WEAK
12UTC 04.10.2019 38.7N 23.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 43.4N 33.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.4N 128.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2019 17.1N 129.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 06.10.2019 18.0N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2019 18.9N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010356

>

2019-10-01 03:24

WTPN31 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.9N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 29.4N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 108.9W.
01OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 649 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-10-01 02:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 010249 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
900 PM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, ESPECIALLY A RECENT 2326 UTC
SSMI/S PASS, CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS
REMAINED CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE CENTER NOW LOCATED JUST INLAND NEAR
LOS MOCHIS. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATED
WINDS TO NEAR 40 KT ABOUT 40 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER, AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE POSITION OF THOSE WINDS WOULD PLACE THEM NEAR
THE COAST NOW, AND JUSTIFIES LOWERING THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 40
KT. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS ALSO DECREASED MARKEDLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, FURTHER SUGGESTING THAT THE INTENSITY HAS
LIKELY DECREASED.

NARDA HAS CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT AN UNUSUALLY FAST
FORWARD SPEED, OR 325/17 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NARDA MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE CENTER REMAINING INLAND OR
VERY NEAR THE COAST DURING THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO
AN AVERAGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.

NOW THAT NARDA'S CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF COASTAL MAINLAND MEXICO, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DUE TO FUNNELING ALONG SOME OF THE

>

2019-10-01 02:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 010249
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Passive microwave satellite imagery, especially a recent 2326 UTC
SSMI/S pass, continue to show that a small mid-level eye feature has
remained close to the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico since
the previous advisory, with the center now located just inland near
Los Mochis. Earlier scatterometer surface wind data indicated
winds to near 40 kt about 40 n mi south of the center, and
extrapolation of the position of those winds would place them near
the coast now, and justifies lowering the current intensity to 40
kt. Deep convection near the center has also decreased markedly
over the past few hours, further suggesting that the intensity has
likely decreased.

Narda has continued moving northwestward at an unusually fast
forward speed, or 325/17 kt. There is no significant change to the
previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest model guidance
remains in excellent agreement on Narda maintaining a northwestward
trajectory around the southwestern periphery of a large deep-layer
ridge for the next 48 hours, with the center remaining inland or
very near the coast during that time. The new NHC forecast track is
essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and lies close to
an average of the tightly packed consensus model tracks.

Now that Narda's center has moved inland again over the mountainous
terrain of coastal Mainland Mexico, steady weakening is expected
during the next 48 hours. However, tropical-storm-force winds are
still possible, especially due to funneling along some of the
concave-shaped coastlines near Huatabampito and Guaymas before Narda
weakens to a depression in 24 hours or so. Terrain interaction
should result in the small cyclone becoming a remnant low or
dissipating by 48 hours.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Furthermore, the very humid mid- and upper-level remnant
moisture plume is expected to spread northeastward across northern
Mexico and into portions of the U.S. Southern and Central Plains
through at least Wednesday, enhancing the threat for heavy rainfall
and flash flooding in these areas. For additional information,
please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 25.7N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER NEAR COAST
24H 02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-10-01 02:51

WTPZ31 KNHC 010248 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
900 PM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF ALTATA TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ALTATA TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), DATA FROM SATELLITES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. NARDA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

>

2019-10-01 02:51

WTPZ21 KNHC 010248
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF ALTATA TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTATA TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W...OVER WATER NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 109.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-10-01 02:50

WTPZ31 KNHC 010248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of Altata to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), data from satellites and surface
observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located inland near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Narda
is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move near or along the coast of northwestern
mainland Mexico through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression by
Tuesday evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening, a wind gust to at least 39
mph (63 km/h) was measured by a private weather observing site in
Culiacan Ejido Canan, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the
U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and
the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional
information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-30 23:56

WTPZ31 KNHC 302354 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
600 PM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 108.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (32 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF NARDA WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

>

2019-09-30 23:55

WTPZ31 KNHC 302354
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
600 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 108.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 108.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening, but
Narda should begin to weaken late tonight and Tuesday as more of
the circulation intersects with land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently
measured by a private weather observing site in Paralelo Treinta y
Ocho, Mexico, and a gust to 35 mph (56 km/h) was recently reported
at the airport in Culiacan, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-30 21:35

WTPN31 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 23.4N 106.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 106.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.4N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.9N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.2N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 29.4N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 107.5W.
30SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 776 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND
012200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-30 20:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 302039 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
300 PM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED THAT NARDA HAD BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE IMAGERY REVEALED WELL-DEFINED BANDING
AND A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 55 KT, RESPECTIVELY. RECENT ASCAT DATA
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY ON THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE, THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY WIND SPEED HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KT. A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
OF 32 KT WITH A GUST TO 43 KT WAS REPORTED AT MAZATLAN LATE THIS
MORNING AS THE CENTER OF NARDA PASSED NEARBY. SINCE THE CENTER IS SO
CLOSE TO THE COAST, LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. BY
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY, NARDA IS LIKELY TO MOVE JUST INLAND
ALONG THE COAST AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY THAT TIME. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER IF NARDA MOVES TO THE RIGHT
OF THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK.

NARDA CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OR 325/14 KT, AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AS NARDA SHOULD
CONTINUE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200

>

2019-09-30 20:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 302039 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
300 PM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 107.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF NARDA WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)

>

2019-09-30 20:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 302039
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ISLAS MARIAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 107.4W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 20SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 107.4W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 107.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-30 20:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 302039
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

A couple of microwave passes that arrived shortly after the release
of the previous advisory showed that Narda had become better
organized this morning. The imagery revealed well-defined banding
and a mid-level eye feature that was located just offshore the coast
of mainland Mexico. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are 45 and 55 kt, respectively. Recent ASCAT data
supported an intensity on the lower end of this range, therefore the
advisory wind speed has been set at 45 kt. A 10-minute average wind
of 32 kt with a gust to 43 kt was reported at Mazatlan late this
morning as the center of Narda passed nearby. Since the center is so
close to the coast, little additional strengthening is expected. By
late tonight or early Tuesday, Narda is likely to move just inland
along the coast and weakening should begin by that time. The system
is forecast to become a remnant low within a couple of days and
dissipate over northwestern Mexico shortly thereafter. Weakening
and dissipation could occur much sooner if Narda moves to the right
of the current NHC forecast track.

Narda continues to move quickly northwestward or 325/14 kt, around
the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone. There
has been no change to the track forecast reasoning as Narda should
continue heading northwestward along the northwestern coast of
mainland Mexico. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement
this cycle, and the NHC forecast is in best agreement with the 1200
UTC ECMWF model, and is essentially an update of the previous
forecast.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 24.0N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 25.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 26.9N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/0600Z 28.2N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 29.4N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-30 20:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 302039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA HUGGING THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 107.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 107.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this
evening, but Narda should begin to weaken later tonight and
Tuesday as it intersects with land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15
inches.

Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches.

Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-30 17:18

WTPZ31 KNHC 301716 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1200 PM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...NARDA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO MAZATLAN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 106.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF NARDA WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE NARDA INTERACTS WITH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. WEAKENING

>

2019-09-30 17:18

WTPZ31 KNHC 301716
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO MAZATLAN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 106.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.6 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of
northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little additional change in strength is expected
before Narda interacts with the coast of mainland Mexico. Weakening
should begin on Tuesday as Narda moves along the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was reported at
Mazatlan within the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals
10 to 15 inches.

Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 to 15 inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-30 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 301555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.09.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 43.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2019 0 29.2N 43.1W 951 67
0000UTC 01.10.2019 12 31.3N 41.9W 943 75
1200UTC 01.10.2019 24 34.0N 39.4W 938 76
0000UTC 02.10.2019 36 37.3N 34.7W 942 74
1200UTC 02.10.2019 48 42.0N 28.6W 952 63
0000UTC 03.10.2019 60 48.2N 20.9W 967 51
1200UTC 03.10.2019 72 53.1N 16.5W 952 60
0000UTC 04.10.2019 84 54.0N 10.4W 970 49
1200UTC 04.10.2019 96 51.7N 3.4W 992 40
0000UTC 05.10.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 105.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2019 0 21.8N 105.6W 1002 28
0000UTC 01.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.8N 141.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 24 12.8N 141.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 02.10.2019 36 13.3N 141.3W 1003 28
1200UTC 02.10.2019 48 14.3N 140.7W 1002 32
0000UTC 03.10.2019 60 15.1N 140.4W 998 40
1200UTC 03.10.2019 72 15.3N 140.4W 1001 39
0000UTC 04.10.2019 84 15.6N 141.2W 1003 32
1200UTC 04.10.2019 96 15.5N 142.5W 1005 30
0000UTC 05.10.2019 108 15.5N 143.7W 1005 28
1200UTC 05.10.2019 120 15.7N 144.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 06.10.2019 132 16.3N 144.4W 1006 21
1200UTC 06.10.2019 144 17.0N 144.0W 1007 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.8N 128.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 24 14.8N 128.3W 1007 24
0000UTC 02.10.2019 36 15.2N 126.7W 1005 23
1200UTC 02.10.2019 48 15.1N 126.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 03.10.2019 60 15.0N 126.4W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.10.2019 72 14.8N 126.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 04.10.2019 84 14.7N 127.0W 1005 28
1200UTC 04.10.2019 96 14.5N 127.3W 1007 26
0000UTC 05.10.2019 108 14.8N 128.1W 1006 26
1200UTC 05.10.2019 120 15.0N 128.9W 1006 26
0000UTC 06.10.2019 132 15.2N 129.7W 1005 25
1200UTC 06.10.2019 144 15.5N 130.5W 1004 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 37.3N 19.3E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2019 84 37.3N 19.3E 1001 36
1200UTC 04.10.2019 96 41.9N 25.7E 999 36
0000UTC 05.10.2019 108 44.4N 30.4E 998 33
1200UTC 05.10.2019 120 47.5N 34.2E 996 31
0000UTC 06.10.2019 132 52.0N 36.7E 993 20
1200UTC 06.10.2019 144 55.0N 39.8E 993 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.1N 45.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2019 144 37.0N 41.6W 1008 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301555

>

2019-09-30 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 301555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 43.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2019 29.2N 43.1W INTENSE
00UTC 01.10.2019 31.3N 41.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 34.0N 39.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 37.3N 34.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 42.0N 28.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 48.2N 20.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 53.1N 16.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 54.0N 10.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 51.7N 3.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 105.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2019 21.8N 105.6W WEAK
00UTC 01.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.8N 141.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 12.8N 141.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.3N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 14.3N 140.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 15.1N 140.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 15.3N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 15.6N 141.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 15.5N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 15.5N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 15.7N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 16.3N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 17.0N 144.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.8N 128.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 14.8N 128.3W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 15.2N 126.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 15.1N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 15.0N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 14.8N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 14.7N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 14.5N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 14.8N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 15.0N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 15.2N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 15.5N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 37.3N 19.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.10.2019 37.3N 19.3E WEAK
12UTC 04.10.2019 41.9N 25.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 44.4N 30.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 47.5N 34.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 52.0N 36.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 55.0N 39.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.1N 45.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.10.2019 37.0N 41.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301555

>

2019-09-30 15:49

WTPN31 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.0N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.7N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 27.2N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.4N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 106.5W.
30SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 872 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND
011600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-30 15:01

WTPZ41 KNHC 301459 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF NARDA IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO, NORTH OF ISLAS MARIAS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF
ITS CENTER. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN RAISED TO 35 KT, MAKING NARDA A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.
AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE NEAR SAN BLAS, MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED
A WIND GUST TO 38 KT, AND A PRESSURE OF 1002.8 MB WAS OBSERVED AT
ISLAS MARIAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY WHILE NARDA MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY
TUESDAY, AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY THAT TIME. IF THE
CENTER MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC TRACK FORECAST, LANDFALL AND
WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.

NARDA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS TAKE NARDA
FARTHER WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
MOVING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
IS THE SOLUTION THAT THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD, AND IT IS

>

2019-09-30 15:01

WTPZ31 KNHC 301458 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF NARDA WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.

>

2019-09-30 15:00

WTPZ41 KNHC 301459
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Recent microwave data and surface observations from Mexico indicate
that the center of Narda is located just offshore of the west coast
of mainland Mexico, north of Islas Marias. The cyclone continues
to produce a large area of deep convection near and to the west of
its center. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB
and SAB support tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity
has been raised to 35 kt, making Narda a tropical storm once again.
An automated observing site near San Blas, Mexico recently reported
a wind gust to 38 kt, and a pressure of 1002.8 mb was observed at
Islas Marias earlier this morning. Some additional strengthening is
possible today while Narda moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
of California, however, interaction with land is likely to occur by
Tuesday, and gradual weakening should begin by that time. If the
center moves to the right of the NHC track forecast, landfall and
weakening would occur much sooner.

Narda is moving northwestward at 13 kt. The tropical storm should
continue to move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of
a large mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United
States. Although the various global model ensemble means take Narda
farther westward over the Gulf of California during the next couple
of days, the operational ECMWF and UKMET models show the cyclone
moving inland over mainland Mexico within the next day or so. This
is the solution that the NHC track forecast leans toward, and it is
possible that Narda will move onshore farther south than implied by
the exact forecast track.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 22.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-30 14:59

WTPZ31 KNHC 301458
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Topolobampo to Guaymas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Guaymas
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center
of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of
northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening should begin
by Tuesday as Narda interacts with the mountains of western Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
reported at San Blas, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals
10 to 15 inches.

Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 to 15 inches.

Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-30 14:59

WTPZ21 KNHC 301456
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO GUAYMAS
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 106.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 106.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 106.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-30 11:57

WTPZ31 KNHC 301155 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
600 AM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...HEAVY RAINS FROM NARDA SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 106.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H),
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST

>

2019-09-30 11:57

WTPZ31 KNHC 301155
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
600 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...HEAVY RAINS FROM NARDA SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 106.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 106.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease
in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California
near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected
to become a tropical storm again later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
A pressure of 1002.8 mb (29.61 inches) was recently reported at
Islas Marias.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals 10 to 15 inches.

Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-30 09:43

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 20.9N 105.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 105.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.2N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 25.1N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 26.9N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.0N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.0N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 106.4W.
30SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
927 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 010400Z AND
011000Z. //
NNNN

>

2019-09-30 08:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 300834 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

NARDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C. HOWEVER, THIS CONVECTION IS NOT
PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED, WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY SITUATED IN THE
VICINITY OF ISLAS MARIAS. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES AT THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR
NOW, IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE NEARBY
LAND MASS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FACT THAT NONE OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NHC FORECAST IS ABOVE PRACTICALLY ALL OF
THE MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED, IT APPEARS TO STILL BE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315/15 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND A BIT TO THE RIGHT IN 2-3
DAYS UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES NEAR THE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE, AND CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
PREDICTIONS.

THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY NARDA CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL,

>

2019-09-30 08:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 300834 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 30 2019

...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST

>

2019-09-30 08:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 300834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Narda continues to produce very intense deep convection with cloud
tops colder than -80 deg C. However, this convection is not
particularly well organized, with the main activity situated in the
vicinity of Islas Marias. There is little evidence of banding
features at this time. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for
now, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. The
tropical cyclone should move over very warm waters and in an
environment of moderate southeasterly shear for the next couple of
days. Due to the interaction of the circulation with the nearby
land mass of southwestern Mexico, only slight strengthening is
anticipated, however. This is consistent with the fact that none of
the intensity guidance is very aggressive with the system. It
should be noted that the NHC forecast is above practically all of
the models.

Although the center is not well defined, it appears to still be
moving northwestward, or 315/15 kt. Narda is expected to continue
moving along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level
anticyclone, with decreasing forward speed for the next day or two.
A trough moving into the southwestern U.S. and northern Baja
peninsula should cause the track to bend a bit to the right in 2-3
days until the system dissipates near the U.S.-Mexico Border. The
official track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous
one, and close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
predictions.

The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall,
due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and
northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's
circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in
a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-30 08:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 300834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 106.4W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California
near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to
become a tropical storm again later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the
Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals 10 to 15 inches.

Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated
storm totals 10 inches.

Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-30 08:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 300833 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

>

2019-09-30 08:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 300833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
* ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 106.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 107.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.1N 109.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 112.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 106.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-30 05:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 300535 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
100 AM CDT MON SEP 30 2019

...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 105.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS, AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD

>

2019-09-30 05:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 300535
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...NARDA EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 105.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours
elsewhere in the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 105.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move near or over the Islas Marias archipelago
in a few hours. Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of
California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland
Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to
become a tropical storm again later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should soon begin in the Islas
Marias, and will spread northward over the remainder of
the Tropical Storm Warning area later today and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero
to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through
Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-30 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 300357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2019 0 27.1N 43.9W 948 75
1200UTC 30.09.2019 12 28.8N 43.2W 938 78
0000UTC 01.10.2019 24 30.9N 42.2W 925 83
1200UTC 01.10.2019 36 33.3N 40.0W 931 79
0000UTC 02.10.2019 48 36.4N 35.9W 933 80
1200UTC 02.10.2019 60 40.7N 29.7W 944 69
0000UTC 03.10.2019 72 46.7N 21.5W 966 54
1200UTC 03.10.2019 84 52.2N 15.7W 955 58
0000UTC 04.10.2019 96 52.4N 8.0W 972 47
1200UTC 04.10.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 105.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2019 0 22.3N 105.2W 1001 28
1200UTC 30.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.7N 141.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 36 12.7N 141.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 02.10.2019 48 13.5N 141.7W 1003 28
1200UTC 02.10.2019 60 14.5N 140.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 03.10.2019 72 15.2N 140.6W 996 45
1200UTC 03.10.2019 84 15.8N 139.7W 997 44
0000UTC 04.10.2019 96 16.5N 140.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 04.10.2019 108 16.0N 142.3W 1004 30
0000UTC 05.10.2019 120 16.3N 143.2W 1005 26
1200UTC 05.10.2019 132 17.0N 143.9W 1007 21
0000UTC 06.10.2019 144 17.8N 144.1W 1008 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.2N 127.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 36 15.2N 127.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 02.10.2019 48 15.3N 126.6W 1004 25
1200UTC 02.10.2019 60 15.3N 126.5W 1003 30
0000UTC 03.10.2019 72 15.3N 126.6W 1002 36
1200UTC 03.10.2019 84 14.8N 126.8W 1003 33
0000UTC 04.10.2019 96 14.8N 127.2W 1004 29
1200UTC 04.10.2019 108 14.7N 127.2W 1005 28
0000UTC 05.10.2019 120 14.9N 128.0W 1005 27
1200UTC 05.10.2019 132 14.7N 129.0W 1006 25
0000UTC 06.10.2019 144 14.5N 130.1W 1005 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300357

>

2019-09-30 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 300357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.09.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2019 27.1N 43.9W INTENSE
12UTC 30.09.2019 28.8N 43.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 30.9N 42.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 33.3N 40.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 36.4N 35.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 40.7N 29.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 46.7N 21.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 52.2N 15.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 52.4N 8.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 105.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2019 22.3N 105.2W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.7N 141.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 12.7N 141.8W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.5N 141.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 14.5N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 15.2N 140.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 15.8N 139.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 16.5N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 16.0N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 16.3N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 17.0N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 17.8N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.2N 127.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 15.2N 127.9W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 15.3N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 15.3N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 15.3N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 14.8N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 14.8N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 14.7N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 14.9N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 14.7N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 14.5N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300357

>

2019-09-30 03:10

WTPN31 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 19.9N 104.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 104.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.0N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.0N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 25.4N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.7N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 29.2N 111.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 105.1W.
30SEP19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1022 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND
010400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-30 02:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 300231 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

MY BEST ESTIMATE OF NARDA'S POSITION BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, IS
INLAND NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. THERE MAY BE OTHER SMALL SWIRLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM THE ISLAS MARIAS
ARCHIPELAGO SOUTHEASTWARD TO PUERTO VALLARTA, NARDA, AND MANZANILLO.
HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN
TRACKING, WHICH IS NEAR GROUND LEVEL IN THIS MOUNTAINOUS REGION, IS
THE FEATURE THAT HAS HAD THE MOST CONTINUITY. A CURVED BAND OF
INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTING OF CLOUD TOPS OF -85C TO -90C,
WITH ISOLATED OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO -95C, WRAPS ABOUT HALF AROUND THE
CENTER AND GENERALLY CORRESPONDS TO 35-KT WINDS. DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, HOWEVER, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/18 KT. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST
OF NARDA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NARDA EMERGING BACK OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 6 HOURS, THEN PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAS
MARIAS ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A TRACK NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SECOND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND LIES JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS

>

2019-09-30 02:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 300231
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

My best estimate of Narda's position based on conventional and
microwave satellite imagery, along with surface observations, is
inland near Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. There may be other small swirls
embedded within a surface trough that lies from the Islas Marias
archipelago southeastward to Puerto Vallarta, Narda, and Manzanillo.
However, the mid-level circulation center that we have been
tracking, which is near ground level in this mountainous region, is
the feature that has had the most continuity. A curved band of
intense deep convection consisting of cloud tops of -85C to -90C,
with isolated overshooting tops to -95C, wraps about half around the
center and generally corresponds to 35-kt winds. Due to land
interaction, however, the initial intensity is being held just below
tropical storm strength or 30 kt.

The initial motion is 315/18 kt. A large ridge anchored to the east
of Narda is expected to steer the the cyclone northwestward for the
next 3 days. This will result in Narda emerging back over the
Pacific Ocean in about 6 hours, then passing near or over the Islas
Marias islands Monday morning, followed by a track near or just
offshore the northwestern coast of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.
A second landfall is expected along the coast of Mexico on
Wednesday, followed by dissipation Wednesday night or early
Thursday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory, and lies just a tad to the left of the consensus models
TVCN and HCCA, which move the center inland in about 24 hours.

The intensity forecast remains highly uncertain, and leans toward a
consensus of the wind fields in the global models, which show Narda
regaining tropical storm status in 6-12 hours as a band of 35-kt
winds forms between the center and the mountainous coastline, likely
due to funneling/orographic effects. The upper-level environment is
forecast to be conducive for additional strengthening when Narda
moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of California after
12-18 hours, but land interaction is expected to temper any
significant strengthening. Thus, the intensity forecast is
flat-lined at 35-kt, although some fluctuations in the intensity is
likely. Due to Narda being forecast to regain tropical storm status,
tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued for portions of
northwestern Mexico.

The primary threat from Narda will continue to be very heavy
rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall
totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is
expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical
cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 20.6N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-30 02:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 300231 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 105.2W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO, AND ALSO FOR
THE ISLAS MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS, MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS, AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

>

2019-09-30 02:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 300231 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO...AND ALSO FOR
THE ISLAS MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS...MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
. ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

>

2019-09-30 02:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 300231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO...AND ALSO FOR
THE ISLAS MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM TOPOLOBAMPO NORTHWARD TO GUAYMAS...MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO
* ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOPOLOBAMPO TO GUAYMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS...AND WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS
ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 106.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.2N 111.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 105.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-30 02:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 300231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 105.2W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Topolobampo, and also for
the Islas Marias archipelago. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued from Topolobampo northward to Guaymas, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Topolobampo
* Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours
elsewhere in the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 105.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will emerge over the Pacific early Monday and move
near or across the Islas Marias archipelago. Narda is then forecast
to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast
of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast once the center moves back over the
Pacific Ocean, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm
again Monday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero
to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through
Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along
the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias
archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-29 21:17

WTPN31 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 103.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 103.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.8N 105.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 23.0N 106.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 24.7N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.7N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 103.7W.
29SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1132
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-29 21:01

WTPZ41 KNHC 292058 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

NARDA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
PRIMARY CENTER HAS BEEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS AND MANZANILLO, AND THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING. A 17Z ASCAT-C OVERPASS SUGGESTS
TWO OTHER VORTICITY CENTERS ARE LOCATED OFFSHORE, ONE NEAR A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO AND THE OTHER
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
35 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CENTER, AND GIVEN THE DECREASE
IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME IT IS ESTIMATED THAT NARDA HAS
DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 315/17 KT, WHICH IS
FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
NARDA WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA. AFTER THAT TIME, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST
SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CENTER, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD
RE-FORM OFFSHORE, THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW TRACK WILL BE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE INITIAL MOTION AND FASTER

>

2019-09-29 20:59

WTPZ41 KNHC 292058
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Narda has become less organized during the past several hours. The
primary center has been over the mountains of southwestern Mexico
between Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo, and the associated
convection has been decreasing. A 17Z ASCAT-C overpass suggests
two other vorticity centers are located offshore, one near a
cluster of convection to the southwest of Manzanillo and the other
to the southwest of Lazaro Cardenas. The scatterometer data showed
35 kt winds southeast of the primary center, and given the decrease
in organization since that time it is estimated that Narda has
dropped below tropical storm strength.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 315/17 kt, which is
faster than in the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days,
Narda will be steered generally northwestward close to the coast
of mainland Mexico along the southwestern periphery of a large high
pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough
approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west
should cause the system to turn north-northwestward and move over
northwestern mainland Mexico. The track guidance has shifted to the
right since the last advisory. However, due to the uncertainty in
what will happen to the center, including the possibility it could
re-form offshore, the new forecast track will be to the left of the
model consensus. The new track will be faster than the previous
track based on a combination of the initial motion and faster
guidance.

The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast
will follow the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken
while over Mexico, and then re-intensify a little when the
system emerges over water. However, there remain two alternative
scenarios. The first of these is that the circulation dissipates
completely as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico. The
second is that the center re-forms offshore, either from the
vorticity center currently southwest of Manzanillo or, as suggested
by some of the global models, from a new center north of Cabo
Corrientes. If such a re-formation occurs, this could lead to
significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts.

The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to
15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to
continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-29 20:57

WTPZ31 KNHC 292055 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...NARDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 103.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NARDA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H), AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NARDA WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO TONIGHT, THEN EMERGE OVER THE
PACIFIC EARLY MONDAY. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST

>

2019-09-29 20:57

WTPZ21 KNHC 292055 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NARDA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z...INLAND
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 103.0W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-29 20:56

WTPZ31 KNHC 292055
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 103.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of western and northwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of Narda. Watches or warnings may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 103.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Narda will move over or near portions of the western and
southwestern coasts of Mexico tonight, then emerge over the
Pacific early Monday. It is then forecast to move near or just
offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the
center is over land. Slow strengthening is forecast once the center
moves back over the Pacific.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-29 20:56

WTPZ21 KNHC 292055
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NARDA. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 103.5W AT 29/2100Z...INLAND
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 103.0W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 103.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-29 17:52

WTPZ31 KNHC 291749 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA NOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS
AND MANZANILLO...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 103.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NARDA
WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COASTS OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC ON

>

2019-09-29 17:51

WTPZ31 KNHC 291749
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA NOW OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN LAZARO CARDENAS
AND MANZANILLO...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 103.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 103.1 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda
will move over or near portions of the western and southwestern
coasts of Mexico through tonight, then emerge over the Pacific on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected as the center moves over land, and
Narda is forecast to weaken to a depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are now occuring within the
warning area and should continue for the next few hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-29 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 291559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 44.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 25.6N 44.8W INTENSE
00UTC 30.09.2019 26.9N 44.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 28.5N 43.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 30.4N 42.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 32.7N 40.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 35.8N 36.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 39.4N 31.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 43.9N 24.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 47.5N 16.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 49.0N 9.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 48.4N 5.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 101.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 17.0N 101.9W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2019 19.0N 104.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 21.8N 106.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 23.4N 108.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 24.2N 109.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 25.9N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 27.5N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.8N 126.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 15.8N 126.3W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 16.1N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 15.9N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 15.4N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 14.8N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 14.9N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 15.0N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 15.0N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 15.0N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.0N 140.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2019 14.5N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 15.3N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 15.7N 139.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291559

>

2019-09-29 15:22

WTPN31 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 101.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 101.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.3N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.5N 105.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.2N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.5N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.5N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.0N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 102.2W.
29SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1247
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND
301600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-29 14:58

WTPZ41 KNHC 291456 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

THE CENTER OF NARDA EITHER RE-FORMED TO THE NORTHWEST OR
ACCELERATED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NIGHT, AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT IS
NOW LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR LAZARO CARDENAS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON THE MEXICAN
OBSERVATIONS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED EAST-WEST, WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ELONGATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 325/13 KT. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, NARDA WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AFTER
THAT TIME, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO,
BUT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION, AND IT KEEPS THE CENTER OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE BRINGING
THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR
NARDA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WHILE OVER MEXICO, AND THEN CALL
FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN THE

>

2019-09-29 14:58

WTPZ31 KNHC 291455 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA MOVING ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR LAZARO
CARDENAS...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
NARDA WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN EMERGE OVER THE

>

2019-09-29 14:58

WTPZ21 KNHC 291455 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-29 14:57

WTPZ41 KNHC 291456
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

The center of Narda either re-formed to the northwest or
accelerated its forward motion during the night, as surface
observations from Mexico and satellite imagery indicate that it is
now located along the coast of Mexico near Lazaro Cardenas. The
initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on the Mexican
observations and little change in the satellite intensity estimates
since the last advisory. First-light visible imagery suggests that
the cyclone's circulation is elongated east-west, with the center
located on the eastern side of the elongation.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/13 kt. Over the next
couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward along
the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. After
that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern
Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to
turn north-northwestward. The new forecast track is parallel to,
but moved significantly to the right of, the previous forecast due
to the initial position and motion, and it keeps the center over
portions of western Mexico for the next 12-24 hours before bringing
the system over the southeastern and eastern portions of the Gulf of
California.

The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast
will follow the scenario of the previous forecast in calling for
Narda to weaken to a depression while over Mexico, and then call
for some re-intensification later in the forecast period when the
system emerges over water in a light shear environment. However,
there are two alternative scenarios. The most likely of these is
that the circulation dissipates as it passes over the mountains of
western Mexico, which is a distinct possibility if the system goes
as far inland as currently forecast. The least likely is that the
center reforms offshore, which could lead to significant changes in
both the intensity and the track forecasts.

The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to
15 inches are possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.1N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-29 14:57

WTPZ31 KNHC 291455
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA MOVING ONTO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR LAZARO
CARDENAS...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Narda will move over or near portions of the western and
southwestern coasts of Mexico through tonight, then emerge over the
Pacific on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected as the center moves over land, and Narda is
forecast to weaken to a depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are now occuring within the
warning area and should continue for the next several hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-29 14:57

WTPZ21 KNHC 291455
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 102.1W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.3N 103.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 105.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 108.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 109.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 102.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2019-09-29 13:20

WTPZ61 KNHC 291316
TCUEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
915 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...CENTER OF NARDA NOW NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM COASTAL STATIONS IN MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF NARDA IS NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION AND IT IS NOW LOCATED CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
ZIHUATANEJO. THE MEXICAN NAVY STATION AT PUERTO VICENTE RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH (62 KM/H) AND A WIND GUST OF 52
MPH (84 KM/H).


SUMMARY OF 915 AM CDT...1315 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 101.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-29 11:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 291138 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
700 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 101.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (14 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING NARDA
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS UNLESS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

>

2019-09-29 11:40

WTPZ31 KNHC 291138
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
700 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 101.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 101.4 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (14 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda
very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the
next 48 hours unless the center moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area during the next several hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-29 09:27

WTPN31 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 100.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 100.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.4N 102.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.3N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.3N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.8N 107.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.0N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 101.3W.
29SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1355
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-29 08:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 290832 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

SATELLITE IMAGES AND ACAPULCO RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. BASED ON DATA FROM A
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT WHICH
IS ALSO THE MEAN OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR NARDA IS PROBLEMATIC AND UNCERTAIN, SINCE THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS, SUCH AS THE ECMWF
AND GFS, TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DO
NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM RECOVERING FROM ITS LAND INTERACTION IN 24-48
HOURS. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY, ASSUMING
THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND THIS WOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AND DISRUPTION OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE, BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/7 KT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. LATER IN
THE PERIOD, A TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA

>

2019-09-29 08:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 290832 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING NARDA
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS UNLESS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

>

2019-09-29 08:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 290832
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Satellite images and Acapulco radar data show that the storm has
become a little better organized with some evidence of banding
features. Upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the
southern semicircle of the circulation while the cyclone continues
to experience some northeasterly shear. Based on data from a
scatterometer overpass, the current intensity is set at 40 kt which
is also the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The
intensity forecast for Narda is problematic and uncertain, since the
future strength of the cyclone depends on how much the cyclone will
interact with the mountainous land mass of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days. Some of the models, such as the ECMWF
and GFS, take the cyclone inland within the next 24 hours and do
not show the system recovering from its land interaction in 24-48
hours. A little more strengthening should occur today, assuming
the center remains offshore. The official intensity forecast
assumes that the center will move along the coast within the next
day or so, and this would cause some weakening and disruption of
the circulation. The NHC intensity forecast is in fairly close
agreement with the LGEM guidance.

The center is not easy to locate, but my best estimate of initial
motion is northwestward or 315/7 kt. Over the next couple of days,
the tropical cyclone is likely to move generally northwestward along
the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. Later in
the period, a trough approaching the northern Baja California
peninsula should cause the system to turn toward the
north-northwest. The official forecast is similar to the previous
one, and close to the corrected dynamical model consensus guidance.

The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should
result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over
portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to
15 inches are possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-29 08:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 290832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 101.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 101.0 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda
very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours unless the center moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday
night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from
Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-29 08:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 290831 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 330SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-29 08:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 290831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 330SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 100.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.4N 102.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.3N 104.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 106.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 27.5N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-29 05:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 290534 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
100 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2019

...NARDA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 100.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING NARDA
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER, IF THE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO, WEAKENING COULD OCCUR.

>

2019-09-29 05:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 290534
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
100 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...NARDA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 100.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 100.9 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days, bringing Narda
very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours. However, if the center moves closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening could occur.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by early today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall will cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-29 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 290358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.09.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 44.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2019 0 23.9N 44.9W 941 87
1200UTC 29.09.2019 12 25.3N 45.0W 935 84
0000UTC 30.09.2019 24 26.7N 44.2W 928 94
1200UTC 30.09.2019 36 28.3N 43.6W 923 85
0000UTC 01.10.2019 48 30.1N 42.5W 910 96
1200UTC 01.10.2019 60 32.3N 40.3W 911 93
0000UTC 02.10.2019 72 35.5N 36.3W 919 88
1200UTC 02.10.2019 84 39.4N 31.1W 937 72
0000UTC 03.10.2019 96 44.4N 23.9W 966 55
1200UTC 03.10.2019 108 49.5N 15.5W 980 48
0000UTC 04.10.2019 120 54.1N 8.6W 986 39
1200UTC 04.10.2019 132 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM 16E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 100.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2019 0 15.3N 100.7W 1002 33
1200UTC 29.09.2019 12 16.7N 102.5W 1000 41
0000UTC 30.09.2019 24 18.5N 104.7W 991 54
1200UTC 30.09.2019 36 20.8N 106.8W 982 57
0000UTC 01.10.2019 48 22.4N 108.5W 985 58
1200UTC 01.10.2019 60 23.8N 109.9W 992 50
0000UTC 02.10.2019 72 25.6N 110.8W 995 43
1200UTC 02.10.2019 84 28.3N 110.9W 997 29
0000UTC 03.10.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.5N 141.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 72 13.5N 141.9W 1004 26
1200UTC 02.10.2019 84 14.1N 141.8W 1002 28
0000UTC 03.10.2019 96 15.3N 141.4W 998 37
1200UTC 03.10.2019 108 16.1N 141.0W 996 49
0000UTC 04.10.2019 120 16.6N 141.5W 1000 39
1200UTC 04.10.2019 132 16.6N 142.5W 1004 33
0000UTC 05.10.2019 144 16.7N 143.3W 1005 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290357

>

2019-09-29 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 290357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.09.2019

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 44.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2019 23.9N 44.9W INTENSE
12UTC 29.09.2019 25.3N 45.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 26.7N 44.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 28.3N 43.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 30.1N 42.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 32.3N 40.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 35.5N 36.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 39.4N 31.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 44.4N 23.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 49.5N 15.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 54.1N 8.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM 16E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 100.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2019 15.3N 100.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.09.2019 16.7N 102.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 18.5N 104.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 20.8N 106.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 22.4N 108.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 23.8N 109.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 25.6N 110.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 28.3N 110.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.5N 141.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.5N 141.9W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2019 14.1N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 15.3N 141.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 16.1N 141.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 16.6N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 16.6N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 16.7N 143.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290357

>

2019-09-29 03:05

WTPN31 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 100.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 100.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.7N 101.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.3N 103.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.3N 105.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.2N 107.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.9N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.5N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.5N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 100.7W.
29SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NARDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1397
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-29 02:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 290242 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SHOW THAT THE DISTURBANCE'S CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
IN ADDITION, THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS
BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
MAINTAINED AT 35 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION.

NARDA IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AND IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IT WOULD
LIKELY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, BUT IF IT REMAINS
FARTHER WEST OR JUST OFFSHORE, IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED
BELOW.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER THE DISTURBANCE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TAKE
THE SYSTEM INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FAVOR A TRACK NEAR, BUT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT THE CONFIDENCE

>

2019-09-29 02:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 290242
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Late afternoon visible satellite imagery and ship observations
show that the disturbance's circulation has become better defined.
In addition, there has been an increase in convective banding around
the western portion of the system. As a result, the system is
being classified as a tropical storm. The initial wind speed is
maintained at 35 kt, which is in agreement with earlier
scatterometer data, and the latest TAFB Dvorak classification.

Narda is located within an area of moderate northeasterly
shear and is likely to interact with the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico on Sunday. As a result, only slight strengthening
is indicated within the next 24 hours, followed by some weakening
as the system moves near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.
The latter portion of the intensity forecast is quite uncertain.
If the system tracks to the right of the official forecast it would
likely weaken and dissipate over southern Mexico, but if it remains
farther west or just offshore, it could be stronger than indicated
below.

The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. A strong
deep-layer ridge over the southeastern United States should
continue to steer the disturbance northwestward during the next
couple of days. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF both take
the system inland within the next 24 hours, however the ensemble
means favor a track near, but just offshore of the coast. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but the confidence
after 36-48 hours is quite low due to the potential land
interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 15.4N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-29 02:43

WTPZ31 KNHC 290241 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NARDA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 100.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST. NARDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING NARDA
VERY NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

>

2019-09-29 02:43

WTPZ31 KNHC 290241
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NARDA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 100.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 100.6 West. Narda is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, bringing Narda
very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
However, if the center moves closer to the coast and interacts with
the high terrain of Mexico, weakening could occur.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Oaxaca to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall will cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-29 02:43

WTPZ21 KNHC 290241 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 120SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-29 02:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 290241
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.6W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 120SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 90SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 24.9N 109.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-28 23:46

WTPZ31 KNHC 282344 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
700 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 100.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.3 WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MEANDERING
DURING THE DAY, BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) TONIGHT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE OR THE
CYCLONE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

>

2019-09-28 23:45

WTPZ31 KNHC 282344
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
700 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 100.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.1 North, longitude 100.3 West. The system has been meandering
during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue
during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the
cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-28 20:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 282041 RRA
TCDEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE YET AND STILL THERE IS
NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. SATELLITE ANIMATION CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING JUST SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO, BUT IT IS STILL ELONGATED. LATEST ASCAT MEASURED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
CENTER.

SINCE THE LARGE ENVELOPE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A VERY MODEST
INCREASE IN WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT
ANY TIME LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE STATE OF
JALISCO, IT COULD GATHER SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, AND A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVERLAND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CENTER GOOD ENOUGH TO TRACK. HOWEVER,
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STEER THE DISTURBANCE OR THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY CLOSE OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO, AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY THE RELIABLE MODELS.

>

2019-09-28 20:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 282041
TCDEP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The large area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of
Mexico has not been able to consolidate yet and still there is
no evidence of a well-defined center. Satellite animation continue
to suggest that a circulation could be forming just south of
Acapulco, but it is still elongated. Latest ASCAT measured
tropical-storm-force winds well south of the possible developing
center.

Since the large envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the
high terrain of southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal
for strengthening, the NHC forecast calls for a very modest
increase in winds. The disturbance could become a tropical storm at
any time later tonight or Sunday before it reaches the coast.
However, if the system survives the high terrain of the state of
Jalisco, it could gather some additional strength when it emerges in
the Gulf of California and before the shear increases. By the end of
the forecast period, the shear is expected to be high, and a large
portion of the circulation will be overland. This should result in
weakening.

The initial motion continues to be highly uncertain since the
disturbance does not have a center good enough to track. However,
a high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico should continue
to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward the northwest and
then north-northwest very close or over the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California. This is the solution
provided by the reliable models.

As mentioned this morning, If the system develops its center closer
to the coast, there is a chance that the circulation moves inland
earlier than anticipated resulting in faster weakening. In fact,
this is the solution of this morning's GFS. Regardless of
development, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 15.0N 100.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-28 20:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 282039 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS HEADING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MEANDERING
DURING THE DAY, BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) TONIGHT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE OR THE
CYCLONE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

>

2019-09-28 20:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 282039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...DISTURBANCE TAKING ITS TIME TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS HEADING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 100.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.0 North, longitude 100.0 West. The system has been meandering
during the day, but it should begin to move toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h) tonight. This motion is expected to continue
during the next couple of days, bringing the disturbance or the
cyclone very near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, this system
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-28 20:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 282039 RRA
TCMEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 99.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 120SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 150SE 70SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

>

2019-09-28 20:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 282039
TCMEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 100.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 99.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 120SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 150SE 70SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 107.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 109.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 109.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 100.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-28 17:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 281731 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
100 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE OR THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

>

2019-09-28 17:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 281731
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
100 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system has moved very little
during the past few hours, but it should begin to move toward
the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) later today or tonight. This
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days,
bringing the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

Although a well-defined center has not developed yet, a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-28 14:54

WTPZ41 KNHC 281451 RRA
TCDEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER AT THIS TIME, BUT SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS
THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO. SINCE
THERE IS A RISK OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN COAST, AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
INITIATED ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 16-E.

EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN PRODUCING
WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT, MOSTLY WITHIN ITS SOUTHERN PORTION. THE LARGE
ENVELOPE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING,
BUT IT IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE DISTURBANCE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STATUS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGH, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS OBVIOUSLY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS NOT
A GOOD CENTER TO TRACK. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE DISTURBANCE OR THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO, AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE RELIABLE MODELS.

IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ITS CENTER CLOSER TO THE COAST, THERE IS A

>

2019-09-28 14:54

WTPZ31 KNHC 281451 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 28 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TRACK
SHOULD BRING THE DISTURBANCE OR THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

>

2019-09-28 14:53

WTPZ41 KNHC 281451
TCDEP1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The area of disturbed weather along the southwestern coast of Mexico
is gradually becoming better organized. There is no evidence of a
well-defined center at this time, but satellite animation suggests
that a circulation could be forming just south of Acapulco. Since
there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds along the coast of
Mexico, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for a portion of southwestern coast, and advisories have been
initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16-E.

Earlier ASCAT data indicate that the disturbance has been producing
winds of about 30 kt, mostly within its southern portion. The large
envelope of the disturbance is interacting with the high terrain of
southern Mexico, and the environment is not ideal for strengthening,
but it is good enough for the disturbance to reach tropical storm
status. By the end of the forecast period, the shear is expected to
be high, and the system should weaken.

The initial motion is obviously highly uncertain since there is not
a good center to track. The best estimate is toward the northwest
or 315 degrees at 11 kt. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
will continue to steer the disturbance or the cyclone toward
the northwest and then north-northwest very close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico, and then into the Gulf of California.
This is the solution provided by the reliable models.

If the system develops its center closer to the coast, there is a
chance that the circulation moves inland earlier than anticipated
resulting in faster weakening. Regardless of how strong the system
becomes, torrential rains are expected along the southwestern coast
of Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 14.9N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-28 14:53

WTPZ21 KNHC 281450 RRA
TCMEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-28 14:52

WTPZ31 KNHC 281451
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Cabo
Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.4 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. This track
should bring the disturbance or the cyclone very near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
Sunday. However, if the center forms closer to the coast and
interacts with the high terrain of Mexico, weakening should then
occur.

The disturbance is becoming better organized, and a tropical
depression or a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or
Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later tonight or early Sunday,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Chiapas to
Nayarit through Monday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-28 14:52

WTPZ21 KNHC 281450
TCMEP1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>