Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NARDA-19
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NARDA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge n.a.
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 56 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 83 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

56 km/h Current

Up to 15.6 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 28 Sep 2019 12:00 74 2.1 million No people Mexico
Green 2 28 Sep 2019 18:00 74 10.2 million No people Mexico
Green 3 29 Sep 2019 00:00 74 4.8 million No people Mexico
Green 4 29 Sep 2019 06:00 83 6.1 million No people Mexico
Green 5 29 Sep 2019 12:00 74 8.2 million No people Mexico
Green 6 29 Sep 2019 18:00 65 15.9 million No people Mexico
Green 7 30 Sep 2019 00:00 65 18 million No people Mexico
Green 8 30 Sep 2019 06:00 65 15.4 million No people Mexico
Green 9 30 Sep 2019 12:00 74 17.1 million No people Mexico
Green 10 30 Sep 2019 21:00 83 9.5 million No people Mexico
Green 11 01 Oct 2019 00:00 83 17.3 million No people Mexico
Green 12 01 Oct 2019 06:00 65 16.4 million No people Mexico
Green 13 01 Oct 2019 12:00 56 15.7 million No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 28 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.5, -100
GREEN
2 28 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1.5 million people no people 14.6, -99.7 Mexico
GREEN
3 29 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 1.9 million people no people 15.1, -100.3 Mexico
GREEN
4 29 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 1.7 million people no people 15.7, -100.7 Mexico
GREEN
5 29 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 5.4 million people no people 17.4, -101.5 Mexico
GREEN
6 29 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 11.3 million people no people 18.7, -103 Mexico
GREEN
7 30 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 8.5 million people no people 19.9, -104.5 Mexico
GREEN
8 30 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 370000 people no people 20.9, -105.9 Mexico
GREEN
9 30 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1.7 million people no people 22, -106 Mexico
GREEN
11 01 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 2.9 million people no people 25, -108.4 Mexico
GREEN
12 01 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 1.1 million people no people 26.2, -109.4 Mexico
GREEN
13 01 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 27, -110.1 Mexico
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 29.1, -111.1 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Colima Mexico 460000 people
Michoacan Mexico 3.8 million people
Guerrero Mexico 2.8 million people
Mexico Mexico 10.6 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people 42 km
Huatabampo Sonora Mexico City 30000 people 51 km
Ahome Sonora Mexico City 10000 people 152 km
Los Mochis Sinaloa Mexico City 210000 people 175 km
Guasave Sinaloa Mexico City 67000 people 229 km
Guamúchil Sinaloa Mexico City 56000 people 264 km
Culiacán Sinaloa Mexico Major city 540000 people 365 km
El Dorado Sinaloa Mexico City - 405 km
Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people 561 km
Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people 576 km
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people 626 km
Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 14000 people 692 km
Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 22000 people 742 km
Compostela Nayarit Mexico City 15000 people 830 km
Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City - 830 km
Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 180000 people 861 km
Ahuacatlán Nayarit Mexico City 6200 people 873 km
Ixtlán del Río Nayarit Mexico City 21000 people 881 km
Talpa de Allende Jalisco Mexico City - 909 km
Etzatlán Jalisco Mexico City 12000 people 923 km
Ahulalulco de Mercado Jalisco Mexico City - 935 km
Amatitán Jalisco Mexico City 9400 people 942 km
Ameca Jalisco Mexico City 35000 people 944 km
Cocula Jalisco Mexico City 14000 people 974 km
Guadalajara Jalisco Mexico Major city 1.6 million people 982 km
Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 39000 people 991 km
Zacoalco de Torres Jalisco Mexico City - 1003 km
Chapala Jalisco Mexico City 20000 people 1023 km
Atoyac Jalisco Mexico City 5300 people 1024 km
Sayula Jalisco Mexico City 24000 people 1030 km
Ocotlán Jalisco Mexico City 77000 people 1049 km
Ciudad Guzmán Jalisco Mexico City - 1054 km
Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 100000 people 1061 km
Tamazula de Gordiano Jalisco Mexico City - 1071 km
La Barca Jalisco Mexico City 34000 people 1071 km
Sauhayo Michoacan de Ocampo Mexico City - 1076 km
Colima Colima Mexico Major city 120000 people 1078 km
Jiquilpan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 25000 people 1082 km
Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 12000 people 1086 km
Armería Colima Mexico City 15000 people 1093 km
Cotija Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 13000 people 1096 km
Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people 1099 km
Zamora Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 120000 people 1112 km
Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people 1157 km
Uruapan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 230000 people 1174 km
Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people 1183 km
Pátzcuaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 47000 people 1200 km
Ario de Rosales Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City - 1217 km
Tacambaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 20000 people 1234 km
Huetamo Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 21000 people 1322 km
Coyuca de Catalán Guerrero Mexico City - 1360 km
Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people 1387 km
Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people 1458 km
Atoyac Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people 1473 km
Acapulco Guerrero Mexico Major city 640000 people 1539 km
San Marcos Guerrero Mexico City 12000 people 1579 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Villa Juarez South 46 0 27 km
Los Cerritos Northeast 17 0 177 km
Los Mochis LMM 4 Civ. Paved Yes 6500 178 km
Campo Cuatro Milpas 28 0 216 km
Bacubirito 300 0 255 km
Guamuchil 24 0 265 km
Fedl de Bachigualato CUL 33 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 361 km
Campo Gobierno 13 0 364 km
General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800 575 km
Rancho los Cabras 3 0 634 km
Teacapan 6 0 663 km
Isla Maria Madre 5 0 694 km
El Llano 12 0 822 km
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100 856 km
La Gloria 34 0 919 km
Zapopan ZAP 1625 0 967 km
Autlan 884 0 996 km
Miguel Hidal GDL 1528 Civ. Paved Yes 13100 996 km
Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 1038 km
Ocotlan 1525 0 1047 km
Ciudad Guzman 1520 0 1053 km
Tuxpan 1225 Mil. Paved No 6700 1070 km
Venustiano Carranza 1554 0 1075 km
Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 1085 km
Zamora ZMM 1567 Civ. Paved No 4900 1109 km
Coahuayana 61 0 1132 km
Jaujilla 1950 0 1163 km
Uruapan UPN 1593 Civ. Paved Yes 7800 1178 km
Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0 1179 km
El Infiernillo 511 0 1269 km
Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900 1284 km
Huetamo 300 0 1333 km
Santa Barbara 299 0 1366 km
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200 1369 km
Pie de la Cuesta 6 0 1528 km
Alvarez International ACA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800 1557 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Yavaros Mexico 70 km
Topolobampo MXTPB Mexico 187 km
Altata Mexico 342 km
Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico 563 km
Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico 863 km
Ipala Mexico 882 km
El Tabaco Mexico 943 km
Chamela Mexico 973 km
Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico 1060 km
Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico 1295 km
Acapulco MXACA Mexico 1540 km
Puerto Marques Mexico 1545 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Presidente Gustavo Diaz Ordaz Sinaloa 1982 252 km
Eustaquio Mocorito 1972 264 km
Presidente Adolfo Lopez Mateos Humaya 1964 343 km
Sinaloa Tamazula 1948 382 km
Presa Juan Guerrero Juan Guerrero El Bledal 1994 393 km
El Salto Elota 1985 467 km
Corrinchis Mascota 1977 903 km
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976 927 km
La Vega Teuchitlan 1956 950 km
Tacotan Amuquila 1958 971 km
Trigomil Ayuquila 1993 973 km
Basilio Vadillo Basilio Vadillo San Migue 1973 998 km
Trojes Coahuayana 1994 1124 km
Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986 1136 km
Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957 1224 km
Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968 1282 km
Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963 1282 km
El Gallo Cutzamala 1985 1333 km
Vicente Guerrero Poliutla 1968 1388 km
Andres Figueroa Ajuchitlan 1983 1395 km
Carlos Ramirez Ulloa Balsas 1986 1444 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.