Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-21
in India
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FOUR-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (11 Nov 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 50 km/h 0.2 m 165 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 50 km/h 0.2 m 297 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

50 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Nov 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 11 Nov 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 11 Nov 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 12 Nov 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia6,111,959 
100-250 mmIndia, Sri Lanka, Maldives30,434,918
+
India30,425,184 
Sri Lanka1,594 
Maldives8,138 
50-100 mmIndia, Sri Lanka, Maldives124,019,045
+
India114,666,754 
Sri Lanka9,332,394 
Maldives19,896 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Nov 2021 12:00 210 3.7 million
- - - - India
Blue 2 11 Nov 2021 00:00 157 6.7 million
- - - - India
Blue 3 11 Nov 2021 12:00 42 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 12 Nov 2021 00:00 165 5.7 million
- - - - India, Sri Lanka, Maldives




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Durgarajupatnam, India. This height is estimated for 11 Nov 2021 05:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 0.25m) based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Nov 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Nov 2021 05:15 Durgarajupatnam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:30 Hukitala India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:30 Satabhaya India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 08:30 Therunattam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 08:00 Kakinada India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Chakicherla India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Ullapalem India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Pakala India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:15 Purnankuppam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:15 Pondicherry India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:15 Kalapettai India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 16:45 Vatturupallepalem India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 16:45 Govundlapalem India  0.2
12 Nov 2021 17:15 Talaimannar Sri Lanka  0.2
12 Nov 2021 17:15 Chiruttoppu Sri Lanka  0.2
12 Nov 2021 17:15 Mannar Sri Lanka  0.2
12 Nov 2021 17:15 Periyavilankuli Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:30 Porto Novo India  0.2
12 Nov 2021 12:15 Silavatturai Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 13:45 Tirumullaivasal India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 13:45 Kaveripattanam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Anaitivu Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Arukarkudah Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:00 Foul Point Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 15:00 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 15:00 Idaikkadu Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 15:00 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 15:00 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 13:45 Kurichchikadu Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 13:45 Kayts Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 13:45 Kankesanturai Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:45 Ampan Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:45 Aliavalai Sri Lanka  0.2
12 Nov 2021 10:30 Vedaranyam India  0.2
12 Nov 2021 10:30 Vedaranniyam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:15 Cuddalore India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 01:45 Kelambakkam India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 01:45 Saint Thomas Mount India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 01:45 Madhavaram India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Karaikal India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Accarapatam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Nagappattinam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Tranquebar India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Tarangambadi India  0.2
12 Nov 2021 03:45 Mahabalipuram India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 05:30 Chennai India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 05:30 Tiruvottiyur India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 05:30 Ennore India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:30 Kodigeri India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 22:15 Anaippapan Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:15 Pirappaiyadimadu Sri Lanka  0.2
13 Nov 2021 20:45 Nawaladi Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:15 Point Pedro Sri Lanka  0.1
12 Nov 2021 17:30 Attimoddai Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 20:00 Kuvattur India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Konada India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 16:45 Kottapatnam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 04:45 Kodur India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:30 Chundikkulam Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:30 Chalai Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 19:45 Marakkanam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 07:30 Bideipur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 01:45 Alampil Sri Lanka  0.1
12 Nov 2021 06:00 Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.1
12 Nov 2021 06:00 Vellankulam Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Lankavanidibba India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 20:30 Bijavbati India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:30 Kalmunai Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:30 Akkaraipattu Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:30 Ambalam Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Sikkal India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Kilakarai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Muttupettai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 10:45 Panalkkulam India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 10:30 Velangann India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 15:00 Uppuveli Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 15:00 Trincomalee Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Pottuvil Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 18:30 New Tirrukkovil Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 06:30 Pentakota India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 06:30 Venkatapuram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 06:30 Pata Polvaram India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Koyyam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Dharmavaram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 22:00 Pomparippu Sri Lanka  0.1
14 Nov 2021 11:45 Atirampattinam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 23:15 Yala Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 23:15 Kumana Sri Lanka  0.1