Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-21
in India
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FOUR-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (11 Nov 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 50 km/h 0.2 m 42 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 50 km/h 0.2 m 297 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

50 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Nov 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 11 Nov 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 11 Nov 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmIndia4,465,717 
50-100 mmIndia, Sri Lanka, Maldives30,299,991
+
India27,191,281 
Sri Lanka3,089,735 
Maldives18,975 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Nov 2021 12:00 210 3.7 million
- - - - India
Blue 2 11 Nov 2021 00:00 157 6.7 million
- - - - India
Blue 3 11 Nov 2021 12:00 160 4.5 million
- - - - India, Sri Lanka, Maldives




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Kakinada, India. This height is estimated for 11 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Nov 2021 12:00 Kakinada India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 22:15 Talaimannar Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 22:15 Chiruttoppu Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 22:15 Mannar Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 22:15 Periyavilankuli Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 22:15 Silavatturai Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 19:45 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 19:45 Idaikkadu Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 19:45 Kavutarimunai Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 19:45 Pooneryn Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 14:30 Mahabalipuram India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 22:15 Anaippapan Sri Lanka  0.2
11 Nov 2021 17:30 Hukitala India  0.2
11 Nov 2021 17:30 Satabhaya India  0.2
13 Nov 2021 14:15 Kurichchikadu Sri Lanka  0.1
13 Nov 2021 14:15 Kayts Sri Lanka  0.1
13 Nov 2021 14:15 Kankesanturai Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:00 Durgarajupatnam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 23:00 Attimoddai Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 20:00 Nawaladi Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Tirumullaivasal India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 14:00 Kaveripattanam India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 10:30 Vedaranyam India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 10:30 Vedaranniyam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:15 Saint Thomas Mount India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:15 Madhavaram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:15 Chennai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:15 Tiruvottiyur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Kelambakkam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:00 Ennore India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:00 Therunattam India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 09:15 Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.1
12 Nov 2021 07:00 Vellankulam Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:15 Chakicherla India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:15 Ullapalem India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:15 Pakala India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 16:15 Sikkal India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 16:15 Kilakarai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 16:15 Muttupettai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 16:15 Panalkkulam India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 03:00 Bideipur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:30 Kuvattur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 23:15 Cuddalore India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 23:15 Purnankuppam India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 22:00 Pomparippu Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 12:00 Kodur India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 10:15 Velangann India  0.1
12 Nov 2021 10:00 Nagappattinam India  0.1