Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FOUR-21
in India
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FOUR-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (10 Nov 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 61 km/h 0.2 m 210 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 50 km/h 0.2 m 297 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

50 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Nov 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia3,852,822 
100-250 mmIndia, Sri Lanka19,183,831
+
India16,833,937 
Sri Lanka2,349,893 
50-100 mmIndia, Sri Lanka, Maldives61,314,520
+
India53,824,872 
Sri Lanka7,477,162 
Maldives12,485 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Nov 2021 12:00 394 23 million
- - - India, Sri Lanka, Maldives




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Hukitala, India. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2021 22:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2021 22:30 Hukitala India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:30 Satabhaya India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Chakicherla India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Ullapalem India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Pakala India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:15 Purnankuppam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:15 Pondicherry India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 22:15 Kalapettai India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 16:45 Vatturupallepalem India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 16:45 Govundlapalem India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 23:15 Durgarajupatnam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:30 Porto Novo India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 13:45 Tirumullaivasal India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 13:45 Kaveripattanam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Anaitivu Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Ammanthanaveli Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Arukarkudah Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:00 Foul Point Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:45 Ampan Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:45 Aliavalai Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:15 Cuddalore India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Karaikal India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Accarapatam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Nagappattinam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Tranquebar India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Tarangambadi India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:00 Mahabalipuram India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:30 Kodigeri India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:30 Vedaranyam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:30 Vedaranniyam India  0.2
10 Nov 2021 15:15 Pirappaiyadimadu Sri Lanka  0.2
10 Nov 2021 14:15 Idaikkadu Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:15 Point Pedro Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 20:00 Kuvattur India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Konada India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 16:45 Kottapatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:30 Chundikkulam Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:30 Chalai Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 19:45 Marakkanam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 17:15 Kakinada India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 15:00 Alampil Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:30 Kankesanturai Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 20:30 Therunattam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Lankavanidibba India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 20:30 Bijavbati India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Mannar Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Periyavilankuli Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Attimoddai Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 17:00 Vellankulam Sri Lanka  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:00 Madhavaram India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:00 Chennai India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:00 Tiruvottiyur India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:00 Ennore India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1
11 Nov 2021 00:00 Kodur India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 20:30 Jaffna Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 16:15 Chiruttoppu Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 16:30 Kiranchi Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 14:15 Velangann India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 22:45 Saint Thomas Mount India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 15:00 Uppuveli Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 15:00 Trincomalee Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Kalmunai Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Akkaraipattu Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Ambalam Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 18:30 Pottuvil Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 18:30 New Tirrukkovil Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 23:45 Kelambakkam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 22:45 Bideipur India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Koyyam India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 21:00 Dharmavaram India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 16:30 Pentakota India  0.1
10 Nov 2021 23:15 Yala Sri Lanka  0.1
10 Nov 2021 23:15 Kumana Sri Lanka  0.1