Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 30 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	140 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (28 Aug 18:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	140 km/h	0.4 m	132 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	140 km/h	0.4 m	538 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	121,075

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	26 Aug 2021 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
3	26 Aug 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Aug 2021 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	26 Aug 2021 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Aug 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	27 Aug 2021 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	27 Aug 2021 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	27 Aug 2021 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	28 Aug 2021 00:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	28 Aug 2021 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	28 Aug 2021 12:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
13	28 Aug 2021 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

538 mm

Up to 2.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	2,571,613
50-100 mm	Mexico	7,329,067

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 18:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	26 Aug 2021 00:00	91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	26 Aug 2021 06:00	297	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	26 Aug 2021 12:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	26 Aug 2021 18:00	240	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	27 Aug 2021 00:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	27 Aug 2021 06:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	27 Aug 2021 12:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	27 Aug 2021 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	28 Aug 2021 00:00	124	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
11	28 Aug 2021 06:00	157	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
12	28 Aug 2021 12:00	167	170 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico
13	28 Aug 2021 18:00	214	2.6 million			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Chola, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 18:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	Chola	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	Chamela	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 10:15	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 19:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 18:45	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 23:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	Monteon	Mexico	0.3
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 21:15	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:15	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 08:45	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 21:45	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	San Felipe	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 22:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 22:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 19:45	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 19:45	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 20:45	Corrales	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 21:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:15	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 21:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 03:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 16:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 01:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 01:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 01:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 02:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 07:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:30	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:30	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 05:30	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 22:45	Acapulco	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 22:45	El Marques	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:15	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 07:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:45	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 06:15	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:30	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 22:30	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:30	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:30	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 06:00	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 06:00	Aguaje	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Molino	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 13:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:30	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:30	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 09:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 04:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:30	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 12:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Azure Vista	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Ocean Beach	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Fort Rosecrans	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Roseville	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Loma Portal	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	San Diego	United States	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Coronado	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 09:30	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:45	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:45	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:45	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 07:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Rosarito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 03:30	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 03:30	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:00	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:00	Imperial Beach	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:00	Boal	United States	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 20:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:15	Ensenada	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:00	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 05:45	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 02:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 22:15	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 00:45	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 05:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 08:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 07:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:45	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:45	Cunano	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.