Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 58 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (25 Aug 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.1 m 161 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

140 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico302
+
United States20 
Mexico282 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico121,765 
100-250 mmMexico2,361,836 
50-100 mmMexico1,786,801 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 473 2.5 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Tierra Colorada, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Aug 2021 23:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Aug 2021 23:30 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 20:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 00:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 23:30 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 23:15 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1