Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (11 Apr 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 2.4 m 208 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 119 km/h 2.0 m 666 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

119 km/h

Up to 4 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia5 
Tropical StormAustralia4152 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Apr 2021 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 2 04 Apr 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 4 05 Apr 2021 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 5 06 Apr 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Indonesia
GREEN 6 06 Apr 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Apr 2021 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Apr 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Apr 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Apr 2021 12:00 122 Few people
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia1832795
+
Indonesia1830189 
Timor-Leste149 
Australia2457 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Apr 2021 00:00 298 500 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste
Blue 2 04 Apr 2021 12:00 341 530 thousand
- - - Timor-Leste, Indonesia
Blue 3 05 Apr 2021 00:00 222 60 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 4 05 Apr 2021 12:00 291 2 thousand
- - - - Indonesia
Blue 5 06 Apr 2021 00:00 287 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 06 Apr 2021 12:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Apr 2021 00:00 271 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 8 07 Apr 2021 12:00 455 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Apr 2021 00:00 284 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste
Blue 10 08 Apr 2021 12:00 381 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.4m in Useless Loop, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Useless Loop Australia  2.4
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  2.1
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Denham Australia  1.7
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Tamala Australia  1.4
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Hamelin Pool Australia  1.3
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Hamelin Australia  1.3
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Carrarang Australia  1.2
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Nanga Australia  1.2
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Shark Bay Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Monkey Mia Australia  1.0
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Gladstone Australia  0.8
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.7
10 Apr 2021 08:00 Learmonth Australia  0.5
09 Apr 2021 01:00 Mardie Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 20:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.4
08 Apr 2021 20:30 Dampier Australia  0.4
11 Apr 2021 12:00 Quobba Australia  0.4
10 Apr 2021 08:45 Exmouth Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 10:45 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 20:45 Karratha Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 14:00 Wickham Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 14:00 Point Samson Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 14:00 Cossack Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 00:15 Onslow Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 23:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 08:30 Kalbarri Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 12:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 12:00 Wedgefield Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 09:30 Gregory Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 09:30 Lynton Australia  0.3
11 Apr 2021 09:15 Horrocks Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 17:30 Pardoo Australia  0.3
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Glenroy Australia  0.3
08 Apr 2021 19:15 Broome Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 09:30 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Geraldton Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Drummond Cove Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Popes Landing Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Waggrakine Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:00 Denison Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:00 Port Denison Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:00 Dongara Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 19:15 Thangoo Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 19:30 Condon Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 03:45 Kandangan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 03:45 Gresik Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 03:45 Pangkalan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 03:45 Batoe Porong Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 03:45 Kebanjar Indonesia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Greenough Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 08:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 17:30 Waterbank Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 03:15 Baliga Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 03:15 Laboean Indonesia  0.2
08 Apr 2021 18:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:00 Illawong Australia  0.2
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Coolimba Australia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Sidoardjo Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Pasuruan Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 01:45 Bayeman Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 11:15 Tambajangan Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 11:15 Kajuwaru Indonesia  0.2
09 Apr 2021 02:30 Sumberkuning Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 19:45 Losan Indonesia  0.2
10 Apr 2021 19:45 Cilancang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 19:45 Cirebon Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 12:00 Derby Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 01:45 Probolinggo Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Cardabia Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:15 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Sampang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 19:30 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 19:45 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Gending Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 01:45 Kraksaan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:45 Klampok Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:45 Tegal Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:45 Wanasari Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 20:30 Soega Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:00 Taju Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:00 Bulumanis Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:00 Batangan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:00 Rembang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Karagajar Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 02:00 Maringgai Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 10:30 Leeman Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:00 Galis Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:45 Indramaju Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 01:45 Prenduan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 04:30 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Kendal Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Djomblang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:15 Karangroto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Oeboeah Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Hansisi Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Naioni Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Tenau Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Manoelairoti Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Namosain Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Kupang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Soelamoe Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Maoelafa Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Pitai Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Manikin Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Pariti Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 07:00 Naimoeti Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 10:45 Green Head Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 01:30 Besuki Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:00 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 02:45 Tanara Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 02:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 02:15 Domas Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 14:00 Ningaloo Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 01:30 Mandingan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 08:15 Makasar Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 08:15 Manda Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 02:15 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Djate Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Bluto Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Saroka Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Bundan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 20:45 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 20:45 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:15 Gedugan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 04:15 Tambak Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 04:15 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 03:00 Bundera Bundera Australia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 01:15 Situbondo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 04:30 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 04:30 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 04:30 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 17:30 Batuulo Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Kelapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Sokabana Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Mundjungan Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Tasikmadoe Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 08:00 Popoh Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Pedes Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 03:15 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 20:45 Wedung Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 20:45 Kedungmalang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 21:30 Pemalang Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 11:45 Sanrabone Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 11:45 Tamalaba Indonesia  0.1
10 Apr 2021 11:45 Bisali Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 16:00 Tjikawung Indonesia  0.1
08 Apr 2021 16:00 Aerdjeruk Indonesia  0.1
11 Apr 2021 02:00 Merak Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Ambunten-timu Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Belukares Indonesia  0.1
09 Apr 2021 02:45 Batuputihkenek Indonesia  0.1