Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (29 Sep 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	61 km/h	0.5 m	250 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	155 km/h	0.5 m	931 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

155 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	28 Sep 2020 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	29 Sep 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	362,679

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	28 Sep 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	29 Sep 2020 00:00	535	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2020 04:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Sep 2020 04:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.5
	29 Sep 2020 04:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.4
	29 Sep 2020 02:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	29 Sep 2020 05:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 04:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 02:15	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 02:15	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 03:45	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 04:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 01:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 01:45	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 04:15	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 07:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 07:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 07:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 01:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 04:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 02:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 01:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 01:45	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 01:45	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 02:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	29 Sep 2020 05:15	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:15	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:15	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:15	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 02:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 05:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:30	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:30	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 07:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:15	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 00:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 00:45	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 04:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:30	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	29 Sep 2020 01:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.