Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (28 Sep 20:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	50 km/h	0.3 m	258 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	155 km/h	0.5 m	931 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

155 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 28 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	28 Sep 2020 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	37,024

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	28 Sep 2020 12:00	468	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Sep 2020 20:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Sep 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Sep 2020 20:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	28 Sep 2020 20:30	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 20:30	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 23:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 19:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	28 Sep 2020 20:15	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 21:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 23:15	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:15	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 22:15	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 18:45	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 18:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:45	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 22:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 22:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 20:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 21:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 19:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 18:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 18:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	28 Sep 2020 18:45	La Florida	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.