Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	155 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (05 Oct 00:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	155 km/h	0.3 m	227 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	155 km/h	0.5 m	931 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	28 Sep 2020 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Oct 2020 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	01 Oct 2020 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	02 Oct 2020 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	02 Oct 2020 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	03 Oct 2020 00:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

931 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	28 Sep 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 00:00	250	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	29 Sep 2020 12:00	278	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 12:00	347	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	01 Oct 2020 00:00	530	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	01 Oct 2020 12:00	346	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	02 Oct 2020 00:00	210	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	02 Oct 2020 12:00	246	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	03 Oct 2020 00:00	415	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 05 Oct 2020 00:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Oct 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 07:15	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 20:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 19:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 19:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 13:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Estrecho	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:30	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 00:45	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:30	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 00:45	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 04:30	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 18:30	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 07:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 00:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 18:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:45	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:45	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:30	Apisa	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:30	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:30	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 09:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 09:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:30	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 06:30	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 20:45	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 00:15	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 18:30	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 18:30	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 08:30	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 14:15	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 18:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:45	Maruata	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:30	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 18:30	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 21:15	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 02:15	La Playa	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 22:30	El Tule	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.