Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (23 Feb 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 112 km/h 0.3 m 266 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 94 km/h 1.2 m 389 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia1935 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 130 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia107 
100-250 mmAustralia7406 
50-100 mmAustralia5049 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 613 8 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Soeam, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 23 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Soeam Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Birab Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Mapoon Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Thundulda Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Eyre Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Kladar Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Sabon Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Tor Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Fannie Bay Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Parap Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Darwin Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Nightcliff Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Ludmilla Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Bagot Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Leanyer Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Berrimah Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Per Indonesia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Agats Indonesia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 The Palms Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Larrakeyah Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Cowel Creek Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Seisia Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Bamaga Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Cape York Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 15:45 Aloszville Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 15:45 Running Creek Australia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link