Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (24 Feb 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 1.2 m 85 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 94 km/h 1.2 m 389 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia1076 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 18:00 90 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia39 
100-250 mmAustralia2626 
50-100 mmAustralia3548 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 266 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 18:00 213 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 499 3 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.2m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 24 Feb 2020 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Feb 2020 03:15 Karumba Australia  1.2
24 Feb 2020 13:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 13:15 Alyangula Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 15:15 Bing Bong Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 21:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.6
24 Feb 2020 20:30 Kulinchin Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 13:00 Mapoon Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 15:45 Cowel Creek Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 15:45 Seisia Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 15:45 Bamaga Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 15:45 Cape York Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Mari Papua New Guinea  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:15 Hammond I Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 15:45 Caburinga Village Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Sarire Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Tamarike Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 16:30 Port Kennedy Australia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Matara Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Urum Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Merauke Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Daub Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Anansai Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 17:45 Wendu Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Gove Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Yirrkala Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 05:30 Soeam Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 18:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 18:00 Okaba Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 18:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 18:00 Alakoe Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 18:00 Alatepi Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 14:45 Thundulda Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 14:45 Eyre Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 20:45 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Komoran Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:15 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Selemit Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Kladar Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Sabon Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Tor Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Wan Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 15:30 Konerau Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Per Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Agats Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 02:15 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 01:00 Birab Indonesia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:30 Thangoo Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 01:15 The Palms Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Larrakeyah Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Fannie Bay Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Parap Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Darwin Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Nightcliff Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Ludmilla Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Bagot Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Leanyer Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 01:15 Berrimah Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 21:30 Boigu Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 21:30 Bugi Papua New Guinea  0.1
24 Feb 2020 21:30 Dauan Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:15 Pardoo Australia  0.1
24 Feb 2020 00:45 Aloszville Australia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link