Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia

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2020-02-24 07:58

WTPS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 19P SWP 200224064629
2020022406 19P ESTHER     004  01 265 09 SATL RADR 030
T000 167S 1374E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T012 169S 1359E 045
T024 170S 1344E 040
T036 168S 1329E 035
T048 165S 1313E 030
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 137.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 137.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.9S 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.0S 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 16.8S 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 16.5S 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 137.0E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ESTHER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454
NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
1920022206 135S1389E  25
1920022212 137S1391E  25
1920022218 139S1391E  30
1920022300 144S1392E  30
1920022306 148S1394E  30
1920022312 156S1395E  35
1920022318 161S1391E  40
1920022400 166S1383E  45
1920022406 167S1374E  50
1920022406 167S1374E  50

>

2020-02-24 07:24

WTPS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 137.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 137.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.9S 135.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.0S 134.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 16.8S 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 16.5S 131.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 137.0E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ESTHER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
454 NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY AND A 240453Z ATMS 88GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVERALL, CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
CONSOLIDATED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER LAND, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS. TC 19P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 48. OVERALL,
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK OVER WATER FROM TAU 96 TO
TAU 108. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE QUICKLY OVER WATER.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//

>

2020-02-24 02:36

WTPS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 138.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 138.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 17.1S 136.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.2S 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 17.1S 133.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 137.9E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ESTHER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC NEAR
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 232350Z METOP-B
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTING THE LLCC NEAR THE COASTLINE WITH A LARGE
SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, THE INITIAL INTENSI
TY IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW/ABRF), AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AND A SATELLITE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 19P IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. AFTER THAT, IT WILL TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK
WHICH IT WILL FOLLOW AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA,
STEADILY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU
120, TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK OVER WATER AND REGENERATE.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//

>

2020-02-24 02:24

WTPS51 PGTW 240300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 19P SWP 200224020946
2020022400 19P ESTHER     003  01 235 09 SATL RADR SYNP 025
T000 166S 1383E 045 R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 171S 1369E 040 R034 080 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 172S 1354E 035
T036 171S 1338E 030
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 138.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 138.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 17.1S 136.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.2S 135.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 17.1S 133.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 137.9E.
24FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ESTHER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
1920022206 135S1389E  25
1920022212 137S1391E  25
1920022218 139S1391E  30
1920022300 144S1392E  30
1920022306 148S1394E  30
1920022312 156S1395E  35
1920022318 161S1391E  40
1920022400 166S1383E  45
NNNN

>

2020-02-23 21:02

WTPS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 139.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 139.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 16.9S 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.1S 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.2S 134.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 17.1S 133.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 16.2S 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 138.8E.
23FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (ESTHER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
523 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 40 KTS BASED ON AN OVERALL STRENGTHENING TREND IN THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ALONG WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 BY PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF. MOREOVER,
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DECREASE
IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT MORNINGTON ISLAND HAS CONTINUED, DROPPING
TO 991 MB AND PLACING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 19P IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL AROUND TAU 12. DURING THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 19P WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGENERATE AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER
AFTER TAU 120, THEREFORE, IT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT
TRANSITS ACROSS LAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, PLACING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND
242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WASI) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-02-23 20:55

WTPS51 PGTW 232100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 19P SWP 200223201004
2020022318 19P ESTHER     002  02 220 06 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 161S 1391E 040 R034 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 169S 1380E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 171S 1365E 045 R034 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 172S 1348E 040
T048 171S 1334E 035
T072 162S 1302E 030
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 139.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 139.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 16.9S 138.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.1S 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.2S 134.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 17.1S 133.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 16.2S 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 138.8E.
1920022206 135S1389E  25
1920022212 137S1391E  25
1920022218 139S1391E  30
1920022300 144S1392E  30
1920022306 148S1394E  30
1920022312 156S1395E  35
1920022318 161S1391E  40
NNNN

>

2020-02-23 15:04

WTPS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 19P SWP 200223142142
2020022312 19P NINETEEN   001  02 170 07 SATL RADR SYNP 045
T000 155S 1395E 035 R034 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 165S 1390E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T024 171S 1378E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 173S 1362E 040
T048 172S 1343E 035
T072 169S 1311E 030
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 139.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 139.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 16.5S 139.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 17.1S 137.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.3S 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 17.2S 134.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.9S 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 139.4E.
23FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
532 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
1920022206 135S1389E  25
1920022212 137S1391E  25
1920022218 139S1391E  30
1920022300 144S1392E  30
1920022306 148S1394E  30
1920022312 155S1395E  35

>

2020-02-23 15:04

WTPS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230322ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 139.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 139.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 16.5S 139.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 17.1S 137.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.3S 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 17.2S 134.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 16.9S 131.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 139.4E.
23FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
532 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER.
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND INDICATES A BROAD BUT
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 231243Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE
SHOWS 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A BROAD BUT
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND
INDICATE GALE-FORCE GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS WITH A NOTEWORTHY 24-HOUR
SLP DECREASE OF 9.5MB. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES. TC 19P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED BY TAU 18. TC 19P SHOULD
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WITH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 55 KNOTS AT TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REGENERATE AFTER TAU 120
AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT
TRANSITS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18P (WASI) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 230330).//

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