Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIO-19 in Mexico, from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 23 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIO-19

in Mexico,

21 Sep 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (21 Sep 13:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	90 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
ECMWF Overall	58 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

58 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	05

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 12:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	19 Sep 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	19 Sep 2019 12:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
7	20 Sep 2019 00:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
8	20 Sep 2019 12:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	21 Sep 2019 00:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
10	21 Sep 2019 12:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	17 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	19 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	19 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	20 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	20 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	21 Sep 2019 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	21 Sep 2019 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Tambobiche, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Sep 2019 13:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2019 13:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.3
	21 Sep 2019 14:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:15	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 14:30	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 14:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 15:15	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 14:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 14:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 18:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 18:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 21:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 15:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Sep 2019 12:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 12:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 21:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 21:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 21:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:15	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 21:45	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 21:45	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 17:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 17:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 17:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 15:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 15:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:30	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 17:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 17:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 17:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 17:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 20:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 20:15	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 16:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 16:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 16:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 16:15	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 19:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 23:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:15	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 22:30	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 22:30	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 20:15	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 15:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 15:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 00:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	22 Sep 2019 00:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	21 Sep 2019 14:30	Dimas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.