Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FERNAND-19 in Mexico from 03 Sep 2019 09:00 UTC to 05 Sep 2019 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-19

in Mexico

03 Sep 2019 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FERNAND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (04 Sep 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	521 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	54 km/h	0.2 m	573 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

54 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	02 Sep 2019 12:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	03 Sep 2019 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Mexico	229
250-500 mm	Mexico	362,873
100-250 mm	Mexico	4,450,722
50-100 mm	Mexico, United States, Guatemala	2,338,130	+
	Mexico	2,298,949
	United States	14,721
	Guatemala	24,460

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	02 Sep 2019 12:00	50	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guatemala
	2	03 Sep 2019 00:00	521	4.8 million					-	-	Mexico, United States, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Port O'Connor, United States. This height is estimated for 04 Sep 2019 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 03 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Sep 2019 05:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.2
	05 Sep 2019 00:45	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.2
	05 Sep 2019 00:45	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.2
	05 Sep 2019 01:15	Chaparral	Mexico	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 05:00	Matagorda	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 05:00	Chinquapin	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 17:00	Port Mansfield	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 23:45	El Martillo	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 23:45	Yarborough	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:30	Bryan Beach	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 05:00	Indianola	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Surfside	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Mims	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Surfside Beach	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Port Morris	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Bay Harbor	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Sea Isle	United States	0.2
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	05 Sep 2019 00:30	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Freeport	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 04:45	Quintana	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 22:45	Orange Grove	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 22:45	Peary Place	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 22:45	Flour Bluff	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 16:45	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 16:45	Laguna Vista	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 16:45	Laguna Heights	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 16:45	Port Isabel	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 16:45	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 16:45	South Padre Island	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 16:45	Boca Chica	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 04:30	Gulf Park	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 04:30	Hoskins	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 04:30	Valasco Heights	United States	0.1
	05 Sep 2019 00:15	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:15	Hitchcock	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:15	Anderson Ways	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:15	Virginia Point	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:15	Galveston	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Ingleside	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Port Ingleside	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Aransas Pass	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Mustang Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Port Aransas	United States	0.1
	05 Sep 2019 00:00	Estes	United States	0.1
	05 Sep 2019 00:00	Rockport	United States	0.1
	05 Sep 2019 00:00	Shell Ridge	United States	0.1
	05 Sep 2019 00:00	Fulton	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 11:00	Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:45	Country Acres Colonia	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:45	Nadeau	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:45	Texas City Junction	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:45	Bayou Vista	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:45	Texas City	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:45	Port Bolivar	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 05:45	Fort Travis	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:15	Flake	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:15	Elmgrove	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:15	Crystal Beach	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:15	Patton	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:15	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:15	Caplen	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:15	Gilchrist	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 23:30	High Island	United States	0.1
	05 Sep 2019 02:15	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 00:00	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 00:00	Constance Beach	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 00:00	Peveto Beach	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 00:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 13:30	La Pesca	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 06:45	Sabine	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 00:00	Cameron	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 00:00	Oak Grove	United States	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 00:00	Grand Chenier	United States	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 14:45	Tepeguahe	Mexico	0.1
	03 Sep 2019 18:00	Balantanche	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:15	Los Pericos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 15:15	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	0.1
	04 Sep 2019 23:30	La Presita	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.