Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-19
in Mexico
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area


Tropical Cyclone FERNAND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (04 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)


GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 46 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)


46 km/h Current

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Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Green 1 03 Sep 2019 09:00 74 110 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 03 Sep 2019 15:00 74 150 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 03 Sep 2019 21:00 83 970 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 04 Sep 2019 03:00 102 1.5 million No people Mexico
Green 5 04 Sep 2019 09:00 83 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 6 04 Sep 2019 15:00 74 1.2 million No people Mexico
Green 7 04 Sep 2019 21:00 56 1.1 million No people Mexico
Green 8 05 Sep 2019 03:00 46 1.1 million No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

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Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Exposed population


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Populated places

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Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.


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Nuclear plants

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Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.



No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.