Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-19
in Mexico
02 Sep 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FERNAND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (02 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 50 km/h 0.2 m 346 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 54 km/h 0.2 m 573 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

54 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 02 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 02 Sep 2019 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico1,834 
100-250 mmMexico712,440 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala4,509,946
+
United States6,837 
Mexico4,349,855 
Guatemala153,254 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 02 Sep 2019 12:00 346 710 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Balantanche, Mexico. This height is estimated for 02 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Sep 2019 18:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.2
02 Sep 2019 23:30 Holly Beach United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:30 Cameron United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Oak Grove United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:15 Constance Beach United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 00:00 Sabine United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 15:00 Laja Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 16:15 Celestum Mexico  0.1
03 Sep 2019 00:00 Gilchrist United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 00:00 High Island United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 00:00 Patton United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 00:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.1
03 Sep 2019 00:00 Caplen United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 16:15 Chisahcab Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 18:00 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 18:00 Chenkan Mexico  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:45 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:45 Fort Travis United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:45 Flake United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:45 Elmgrove United States  0.1
02 Sep 2019 23:45 Crystal Beach United States  0.1